MattW

How does the domestic market go from 877 in 2009 to 854 in 2019? I don't get what's being adjusted there

26.5? Don't want to get any hopes up for too big of a jump, 26% would be pretty decent.

Alice in Wonderland 1951 adj: $100m-ish? (wiki says $5.6m nominal) 2010 adj: $383m Cinderella 1950 adj: $550m (including all re-releases) 2015 adj: $221m Sleeping Beauty/Maleficent 1959 adj: $662m (including all re-releases) 2014 adj: $265m Jungle Book 1967 adj: $671m (including all re-releases 2016 adj: $380m Beauty and the Beast 1991 adj: $413m (including all re-releases) 2017 adj: $517m Aladdin 1992 adj: $478m 2019: $355m Lion King 1994 adj: $812m (including all re-releases) 2019: $550-650m I'd say BatB over performed relative to the others from the 90s. Aladdin and Lion King are doing similarly well relative to their originals assuming something around 600m for TLK. The ones from the 50s and 60s are all over the map.

I think 50-52, down ~15% or so from Saturday.

@Porthos Re your post a couple pages back... Back in the beginning of June before MiB, pets and X-Men all pooped out I wrote down some monthly guesses - June would hold even with 2018 (very wrong about that one) - July looks good with FFH and TLK but the the whole month hinges on those, +150m from 2018 - August looks strong if nothing moves; there are so many releases even if a lot of them do terrible the month overall will be strong. +150m from 2018 - Sept 18 nearly matched Sept 17, so I don't expect this year to do much better if at all. Hold even. - Oct 18 was the biggest october ever, this year could lose anywhere from 100-200m - Nov I think will roughly match last year which was very strong from Oct holdovers and Grinch+Ralph making a combined 290m. Frozen has a big ask to carry the month, but I would guess it can do it. Stay even with last year. - Dec is the big one. Cats will carry the month to +300m from last year. Overall July through December I think will be +400m compared to 2018.

Saturday +8% from true Friday. About what I expected. Tomorrow down 15-20%, $47.5-51m Weekend $186-189.5m Monday probably down 50-55% is my guess.

I think it lands in the 180s with 192 being closer to the upper end of what it might do. July OW Saturday won't see a big jump. Secret Life of Pets went up 11.5%, I'd say that's the most we can expect from TLK and even that's a big stretch considering SLoP was original and broke out big while TLK is nearly the opposite. 23+55+ (59-61) + (48-55) = 185-194

23+53.5 + 56.5(+5%) + 45(-20%) = 178 23+55.5 + 61(+10%) + 51.5(-15%) = 191

Next comes live action remakes of pixar movies Then animated marvel movies Then animated versions of their old family movies (Polyanna, Babes in toyland, Gnome-mobile, etc) Then....?

Part of the reason is that it's mid-july. Homecoming had a 7.6, TDK all the way back in 2008 had a 8.56, TDKR had a 5.26, HP:DH2 3.89

23+57+60+50 = 190 That's only up 5% for Saturday, could go as high as 10% but I would bet against a bigger jump. Incredbles went up 11.6% Saturday, down 10.8% Sunday Jurassic World up 9.8% Saturday, down 17.9% Sunday Both Dark knight movies, Deathly Hallows 2, Dead Man's Chest and Minions all stayed flat or dropped from True Friday to Saturday. Homecoming increased 5%. Both Dark knight movies dropped 10% on Sunday while Minions, Secret Life of Pets, Homecoming and PotC Dead Man's Chest all dropped 20% on Sunday so ~15% seems reasonable.

I'd put the baseline for 2021's Batman at about Suicide Squad's level, $130-ish million OW. From there if the trailers are great add 10-20m, if the reviews are great add another 10-20m, 180 tops, but more likely 140-150.

I'm afraid it looks too weird but I hope you're right. I was indifferent before but I kind of want this to be really successful now just to see what people say. Maybe I'm just bored, idk

Wow, that's amazing. Disney very clearly on a new strategy compared to when they released Force Awakens. I remember a lot of people being surprised at the theater count (me included) and speculating it was because they were negotiating for a higher percentage which turned a lot of theaters off. My sense right now browsing through the thread is high teens, 17-19m in previews, and an IM up to the level of Incredibles 2, 9.8 or so which would put the OW in the 170-190 range.

This quote would have worked better back before endgame's re-expansion push.

Universal at one point had a website for OS numbers which differ from that site: Jurassic World 1.674.406.216 Furious 7 1.519.705.171 Minions 1.168.265.836 Unless mojo's domestic number is too high in each case. https://web.archive.org/web/20170913032746/http://upi-boxoffice.com/

It will probably hit a billion the weekend of July 26-28. Maybe sooner, with lion king opening this one, endgame and toy story all stand to potentially benefit.

This was probably already posted but I just saw it:

@Jason's got it done (at least adjusted to July 2017).

I have spiderman in the 42-44 range. 40 seems very low, but the 48-50 predictions seem way too high.

I'm thinking in the 800-900m range. Plus ~550 domestic, 1400 total.

Not sure if someone else already said this earlier in the thread, I didn't go through every page, but.....

I was thinking anywhere from 1500 to 2b for Hobbes and Shaw. Not sure how realistic that is.

Everyone's out with friends and family in the evening to see the firework shows, lots of stores close early, I bet plenty of local and smaller theater chains do too.

All movies: 2013 Mon 1st Tue 2nd Wed 3rd Thurs 4th 4 THE HEAT Fox 3,181 $5,325,789 -51.4% / $1,674 $44,440,832 / 4 $5,382,437 +1.1% / $1,692 $49,823,269 / 5 $5,268,590 -2.1% / $1,656 $55,091,859 / 6 $6,403,429 +21.5% / $2,013 $61,495,288 / 7 5 KEVIN HART: LET ME EXPLAIN Lionsgate/Summit 876 N/A N/A $4,773,916 -- / $5,450 $4,773,916 / 1 $2,586,788 -45.8% / $2,953 $7,360,704 / 2 6 WORLD WAR Z Paramount 3,405 $4,387,159 -52% / $1,216 $128,084,078 / 11 $4,106,417 -6.4% / $1,138 $132,190,495 / 12 $4,034,822 -1.7% / $1,185 $136,225,317 / 13 $4,355,358 +7.9% / $1,279 $140,580,675 / 14 7 WHITE HOUSE DOWN Sony / Columbia 3,222 $3,053,125 -53.7% / $948 $27,905,383 / 4 $2,922,546 -4.3% / $907 $30,827,929 / 5 $2,666,733 -8.8% / $828 $33,494,662 / 6 $3,512,101 +31.7% / $1,090 $37,006,763 / 7 8 MAN OF STEEL Warner Bros. 2,965 $3,044,020 -52.2% / $737 $251,621,616 / 18 $2,784,230 -8.5% / $674 $254,405,846 / 19 $2,353,137 -15.5% / $794 $256,758,983 / 20 $3,015,170 +28.1% / $1,017 $259,774,153 / 21 9 THIS IS THE END Sony / Columbia 2,104 $1,520,670 -45.6% / $561 $76,202,506 / 20 $1,236,408 -18.7% / $456 $77,438,914 / 21 $1,224,149 -1% / $582 $78,663,063 / 22 $1,141,090 -6.8% / $542 $79,804,153 / 23 10 NOW YOU SEE ME Lionsgate/Summit 1,606 $939,335 -44.9% / $366 $105,732,193 / 32 $742,501 -21% / $290 $106,474,694 / 33 $497,591 -33% / $310 $106,972,285 / 34 $673,127 +35.3% / $419 $107,645,412 / 35 11 FAST & FURIOUS 6 Universal 686 $348,750 -52.6% / $225 $233,700,515 / 39 $278,985 -20% / $180 $233,979,500 / 40 $222,950 -20.1% / $325 $234,202,450 / 41 $212,660 -4.6% / $310 $234,415,110 / 42 12 STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS Paramount 660 $354,877 -49.1% / $343 $220,945,947 / 47 $262,982 -25.9% / $254 $221,208,929 / 48 $222,447 -15.4% / $337 $221,431,376 / 49 $323,187 +45.3% / $490 $221,754,563 / 50 Leaving out the openers, and also Monster's U dropped bc of the Despicable Me 2 opening, the movies that got the biggest bumps for the 4th were PG13 action movies. Then everything got a Friday bump: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2013-07-05&p=.htm