redfirebird2008

Yep, same thing last Wednesday.

That sounds awesome. Glad you were able to do that.

I doubt she would get nominated for any major awards. I need to see it again, but there were at least several scenes with Blunt where I thought she was pretty awesome.

Summer-boosted weekdays can definitely have a negative/deflationary impact on the weekend numbers. Still better than releasing in February and having outright shitty weekdays, lol

$12.3M would be very similar to Inception's drop of 47% on Monday. $13M would be very similar to TDK's drop of 44% on Monday. It needs right at $14M to pull off a sub-40% drop from Sunday. Any of these numbers would be pretty epic!

It's performing extremely well, but WB lowballed it by quite a bit on purpose. It's a billion times better to under-promise and over-deliver than the opposite. I can't speak for overseas markets. But the 25% drop for domestic market was a pretty steep projection, knowing what other movies like TDK (-8.5%) and TDKR (-10.5%) did in this same late July spot on their opening Sunday.

Barbie performing very similar to TDK across the board from Thursday night previews all the way to epic numbers on Sunday & Monday. Seems to be trending as a lock for $500+ million domestic. What do you think for Oppenheimer's Monday number?

Did the boobie scenes get censored for Saudi market?

Needs to match Dunkirk's multiplier to get there. Seems pretty difficult, but we shall see. One of our insiders (Charlie) is projecting a sub-40% drop from Sunday to Monday, which would be pretty insane. Here are Nolan's previous Sunday to Monday drops in July: -44% for TDK in 2008 -47% for Inception in 2010 -51% for Dunkirk in 2017 -52% for TDKR in 2012 TDK had a 3.36 multiplier and Inception had a 4.66 multiplier. If Oppenheimer pulls off a better drop than TDK or Inception for Monday, it would seem to be heading for at least $250M domestic at bare minimum. That's a 3.05 multiplier.

The Phantom Menace

You don’t think he approved it? Seems hard to believe Universal would do anything behind his back. They’ve been kissing his ass for the last 2+ years to keep him happy.

So Charlie thinks both movies could drop less than 40% on Monday. That would be insane to see it happen!

Pretty strange results

You're right about IMAX skewing things for Oppenheimer. I was thinking more about Barbie compared to TDK, since those two both had insane Sunday numbers above $40M. I could see Barbie having more people waiting for Discount Tuesday compared to TDK, where people said "fuck it, let's go on Monday."

Will be interesting. Discount Tuesday is a much bigger deal nowadays than 2008, so I wonder if some folks might prefer to wait 1 extra day to get the discounted prices.

I don't think there will be any major lessons from it. Nolan is a rare guy and I would think the studios shrug their shoulders at the idea of trying to replicate his success. Think about this one. Americans generally don't care about WW2 before Pearl Harbor in December 1941. The Dunkirk event was a British story from Summer 1940, yet somehow opened to $50 million in America back in 2017. That movie adjusts to a $60 million opening weekend in 2023 ticket prices. This is just Nolan's brand helping drive interest in a movie that would have very little support from theatrical audiences outside of people wanting to see what he did on the project. Oppenheimer had its share of big risks when we look at the massive flop that happened in 1989, with a $30 million budget and less than $4 million of total box office. However, Oppy is an American story. That's a big advantage over Dunkirk. And the nuke stuff is a bigger deal to everyone than the story of Dunkirk, if we are just getting down to brass tacks comparison. So there was definitely bigger potential in theory for the Oppy project compared to Dunkirk, even if there was a proven track record of the Oppy subject flopping hard.

You could be right. For me, I was running on 2-3 hours of sleep before seeing the movie. So the fast editing had me kind of disoriented in the early part of the movie. When Matt Damon showed up, that's around the time that I was able to start enjoying the film...and I enjoyed the rest of it all the way to the end.

Which movies did you do the troll jobs? I remember laughing about it, especially the first time you did it and caught people off-guard. But I can't remember the movies...getting old sucks!

Thanks for posting about HSX. I was trying to remember the name of that place a couple days ago, but simply couldn't remember. Getting old sucks! I know those HSX guys have had some pretty good box office tracking data through the years.

I dunno, I enjoyed the final 2/3rds of the movie including Downey's big scenes. The early part of the movie is where I was having some issues keeping up with the fast pace editing. Curious to see how it goes with another viewing.

He's probably not far off. TDK might have been able to get to low 400's, which would have been amazing considering Batman Begins had to struggle to make 205. That would have shown tremendous growth, in part from Joker's involvement, in part from Batman Begins finding new audience on DVD, in part because of TDK's overall quality and Ledger's insanely good performance. But sadly his death put all of these factors on steroids and probably added another $125-130M to the domestic total.

You had good taste as a 5 year old.

It definitely overperformed tracking in a huge way. One thing I remember was the Thursday or Friday of release, a buddy at work predicted that it would break the opening weekend record. I told him that's extremely hard to do because Spidey 3 had shattered the old record by a large margin pretty recently. He said EVERYONE wants to see Heath Ledger in this thing. Turned out he was right, lol

Haha, you're one of THOSE kids. I was in the group who were born too early to enjoy the prequels, but too late (born 1985) to see the original movies in theaters. I did see the original films a ton on VHS and TV broadcasts in the old days. I didn't even bother watching TPM or Attack of the Clones in theaters. My cousin was 6 years younger than me and she was obsessed with Queen Amidala. I had a "shrug" view of it at the time, and only showed up at the theater for Revenge of the Sith because of Vader's involvement.

Some of that was going on for sure, but I think there were already people complaining about it at the time. And there are people who were small kids during that time who swear that the prequel movies are the best version of Star Wars, so I think that lines up with the idea that this portion of the audience helped drive the movie's success. I didn't even see Phantom Menace or Attack of the Clones in the theater. I did see Revenge of the Sith because of the hype surrounding Vader's appearance. Now you want to talk about a big deal. It was a massive, massive deal for any movie to hit $50 million in one day...especially on a Thursday instead of Friday or Saturday. The Mojo forums were going nuts during Sith's opening. Absolutely nuts.