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About doublejack

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    Sleeper Hit
  • Birthday 05/05/1976

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  1. TFA is a mess as well. Mistake number one was not having a plan for all three films from the start. Watching TFA you can see there's no plan. It is typical JJ. He creates some mystery boxes, rehashes the familiar and hopes there's enough to hook people in. There wasn't. Viewing TLJ and TROS is like looking into and behind all those cool looking buildings at Disney World. On the surface they give the impression of an expansive and living environment, but when you see behind the curtain you realize it is fake - there's just a front and no actual building. That's the new trilogy. It looks like Star Wars, but it's just a bunch of nothing with a Star Wars veneer.
  2. I don't think it is just the WW number, either. TRoS is going to fall way short of 600M DOM. I think it is tracking for something in the 515-525M range. That's got to be far below expectations, and we all know the studios take a bigger cut of DOM vs INTL gross. I'll bet they miss profit estimates by multiple hundred million dollars.
  3. I disagree with you both. I think this will be exactly like the AoS situation. It doesn't matter that Feige is producing the Disney+ shows. Whedon wrapped up phase 1 and was largely responsible for phase 2 of the MCU, and also very involved with AoS. Didn't matter. Same talent in both, like Clark Gregg and even Samuel Jackson in a few episodes of AoS? Doesn't matter. Here's the fundamental problem - one simply cannot make a movie where viewers will be lacking information if they didn't watch a TV show. Marvel will never make this mistake. The MCU must be self contained, where all the information needed to enjoy them are within the movies themselves. That's how it has been and that's how it shall be. What Feige has said about the Disney+ series was already said about AoS. It will turn out to be misleading, again. Don't fall for it. I'm telling you right now, threads that are started in Wandavision or Loki will go absolutely nowhere in the movies, and will not play any kind of meaningful part. What you'll see instead is some creative writing, where the creators of the shows know what is going to happen in the films and back-fill to make their stories work. Here's another hole in your argument - Disney+ simply does not reach enough viewers for it to matter. The latest numbers we've gotten are that 10M people subscribe to Disney+. Even if all of them are Marvel fans and watch the new shows, that's still a tiny fraction of the movie-going audience. What were the total admissions for EG? At least seven times that, and I believe more. I don't have time to look it up presently. This is the same problem with AoS. The TV audience is teeny tiny compared to cinema. They are different, as I stated initially. Lots of people who watch TV are infrequent movie goers. I, and several of my friends, watch little to no TV and yet go to movies as often as possible. I know there is some crossover but I don't believe it is as big as it maybe some are thinking it is.
  4. I don't think there will be an impact. We've already seen this to some extent with Agents of SHIELD and CA: The Winter Soldier. There is some audience overlap, but TV and movies operate very differently and don't exert very much influence on each other.
  5. How many of those who went to see TRoS predetermined they would like it because they are hardcore fans? I think this is becoming a big trend in movies. Just because those who went, in general, reviewed it well doesn't mean it is a good film, and film quality overall is in a free fall. Also, I think people are maybe not considering how much TFA impacted TLJ's numbers. I think there are quite a few TFA viewers who were one and done. Then there was further loss from TLJ. I do agree that the brand is damaged, though. TFA is probably going to be the high point for the franchise. I doubt it will ever reach that level of hype again.
  6. It would have been interesting to see EG's run with a late Dec release date. TFA's DOM record is still not enough to claim winning the decade, though. I think what everyone can agree on is that Disney has all but cornered the market at the box office. We need another studio to step up and at least give the impression that Disney has some competition.
  7. I didn't draw the initial analogy, I was building on what MovieMan89 said. Let's look at another popular trilogy that did not meet expectations - The Hobbit. That trilogy followed the exact same trajectory as this one. AUJ > TDoS > TBotFA. That held for the OW numbers as well as the final gross. TBotFA was the lowest rated of the tree. The films made money, but when we look at the LotR trilogy we know they could have done better. The reception was not there. You can keep spinning, but this is the first SW trilogy where the third installment performs the weakest in its story arc. That says something. Whether you choose to acknowledge it is up to you.
  8. I could not agree more. I think it is easy for some to get caught up in the admittedly big numbers that TLJ and TRoS have put up / are putting up. However, the potential was there for so much more. What would everyone have thought or said if EG opened up between IM3 and CA:CW? It would have been brutal. All that buildup, for what? There's no way to spin this, the pooch has been screwed. Blame whoever you want... this Star Wars trilogy is going out with a whimper, not a bang.
  9. Campea sucks. He's the absolute worst "critic". He's really just a SW / DC fanboi with predetermined opinions. He's incapable of being objective. Joe Vargas is brutally honest about TRoS:
  10. While it may not seem like it, a decade has now passed since Avatar. Times have changed. I expect when Avatar 2 does hit theaters it will be way, way more front loaded than the first. If you are expecting something crazy like a 5x multi, I'll tell you right now it is extremely unlikely to happen. All movies are more front loaded, and Avatar 2 is also likely to experience more front load pressure due to the nostalgia factor. I'm not going to throw out any numbers, there's no trailer or anything to go on to make a judgement about interest levels or quality, but even with that I expect EG's record is safe. I also think TFA's DOM record will be safe, but that's just based on my suspicion that Avatar 2 won't live up to lofty expectations. I'm of the view that Avatar 1 was a gimmick that fully capitalized on the 3D craze of the day, and it not actually a good film. So I see way more downside in current conditions for a movie of that nature. I fully accept that my view on that is not widely shared.
  11. Yeah, to me this is another of the big issues with the trilogy. How did Lucas do it? Vader was the big baddie for episodes 1 and 2, and the emperor took over for episode 3. We saw Vader turn at the end. So what did we get here? Yeah, exactly the same thing. Copy, paste.
  12. DOM? I think like 90%. There's a good 75% chance in my view that TRoS falls short of 600M DOM assuming an OW in the 190M range. A better than 3x multi with how front loaded movies of this nature are is a tall ask, even during this time of year.
  13. The comparison is not laughable, but what is laughable is dismissing TFA's performance as a on-off that could not be repeated or even come close to. Sorry, that logic doesn't work. TPM had the same kind of buzz about it, possibly even more so because it was being done by the master himself, and it did do very well. The other two films in that trilogy weren't left completely in the dust, though, they even had bigger OWs. This trilogy is simply not as good and the numbers are backing that up. I'm also not being crazy calling TRoS < TLJ at this point. The OW is a lock, and the overall run is way better than 50/50 to play out that way. Without a 200M OW I doubt TRoS gets to 600M DOM.
  14. You have to look at the trend line. TFA > TLJ > TRoS across the board is what appears to be happening. That's pretty definitive. This is a franchise in obvious decline, with eroding GA interest. Do either of the previous SW trilogies explain away this? No, they don't. The overall run for AotC was weaker than that of RotS, not just the OW. While Spider-Man can explain part of that, it doesn't explain it all. People in the target demo for both of those see lots of movies in the summer, they would have caught AotC at some point. Also, RotS had a total gate that was 88% of TPM's. AotC comes in at 70% of what TPM made. TLJ only comes in at 66% of TFA, so again we see weakness in this third trilogy. Do we really think TRoS is going to end up in the 823M domestic range? If it doesn't that's another indicator that interest isn't there. TFA showed what kind of numbers a highly anticipated SW film can pull in the current market. It is very easy to conclude, then, that this new trilogy is not well received and not well liked. Installments 2 and 3 did not even come close to reaching the heights of the first, and all points are trending in the wrong direction. This franchise needs to be scaled back and spread out. Fatigue has set in and quality matters.
  15. This is truth. This third SW trilogy is going out like Hunger Games. The trajectory is not good. There's no way to spin it as a success. Sure, it'll make a little money, but GA interest is clearly eroding away. Meanwhile, international continues to under perform.
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