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About doublejack

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  • Birthday 05/05/1976

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  1. It is, but it is also predictable. The daily death count should also continue to rise some, although thankfully treatment has improved from what it was a couple months ago so hopefully we don't see it get a lot worse than what it is. That said, if hospitals are overrun then the death rate will spike higher. We could also start seeing more people die at home, waiting too long to seek help or waiting for an ambulance that is slow to arrive because the 911 service is swamped. That was a factor in NY.
  2. The at-home experience has improved greatly in recent years. Bigger TVs with higher resolutions. Sound systems that rival the best theaters have to offer. Reclining chairs with drink holders and usb ports. The cost of these things have been going down, to the point that I bought a 50" 4k Roku smart TV for $150 around Thanksgiving. This is another factor that is hurting cinemas as well as attendance at sporting events. The experience is great at home and the food and drinks are way cheaper. Streaming is also killing physical media. Blu-ray will never surpass DVD in market penetration, and both are going the way of the dodo. Hardly anyone buys music anymore. Artists make their money from concerts, and the record labels get the lion's share of streaming royalties. This is just how progress works. The advent of the automobile put a lot of people out of work, too. No more need to shoe horses or repair wagon wheels. Instead, a whole new set of opportunities was created.
  3. Drive-ins are an option for the US. Back in the day there were 4,000 of them. The issue is that only about 300 exist now.
  4. I'm still not sure how much of the problem is the lack of new movies, and how much is the public not feeling safe. There's a theater near me that only shows old films. They specialize in 70mm projection, but play more 35mm movies than anything. They draw crowds of 1,000+ for weekend showings, or did before COVID. They have closed for the year. Maybe the problem is that all open theaters are showing old films, so no single one draws a significant audience? I don't know. I have a suspicion that many people just aren't comfortable with the idea of going to see a movie as things are. That's the nice thing about renting a whole theater. You can control who gets in and limit your exposure. Whatever the case may be, I think we do need some new movies released. While COVID is out of control in much of the US, there are plenty of places where it isn't.
  5. Are you looking for an example better than Batman v. Superman DoJ? The trailer gave everything away. Fans were upset and called that nothing was left to be revealed in the film. They were right with a minor caveat (they assumed a death that wasn't shown but did in fact happen). I'm not sure anyone from a competitor trying to do harm to DC could have put together a better 3 minute supercut of spoilers than the official trailer. Was that the only reason the film disappointed? No, probably not. It had to have been a factor, though. There are other examples. Expendables 3 leaked in full and then bombed, although that was more an issue of piracy than spoilers. Anyway, the reason films open up at about the same time globally is to cut down on the risk of losses from piracy and spoilers. The concern is not unfounded. People rush to go see something they really want to see just so they don't inadvertently get spoiled. I learned that Han was killed and by who via a Facebook post, back when I was on FB. We had NFL stars tweeting about the death of one of the Avengers the weekend IW was released. People don't have to hunt for spoilers, we are all so connected through social media that they will find us. WB is going to lose a bunch of money if they follow through with this unconventional release plan for Tenet. I just don't see how it has a happy ending.
  6. No, it's not a fictional concern. Why do you think movies, particularly large blockbusters, have become so front-loaded? Not getting spoiled is a huge deal for a lot of the US.
  7. Beats Nolanites traveling to Europe or Canada to see it.... oh right, never mind. US residents can't travel to those places. At least we'll keep it in the country. I thought of something else. Some films have had lasting impacts on the cinematic experience. Attack of the Clones was the first digitally filmed major motion picture, and caused a large conversion to digital projection. Avatar ushered in the 3D era, which is mercifully dwindling (and completely failed at home), but I digress. Blair Witch gave us the shaky cam perspective. The Hobbit films tried, but failed, to make 48fps a thing. Could Tenet be the driving force that creates a resurgence of the drive-in theater in the US? Thankfully, there is a large drive-in near me. So, if Tenet does open domestically that is likely where I'll be seeing it.
  8. It depends. If they treat the US as a whole, then Tenet won't play here this year. If they instead are content with allowing it to play in some markets and not others (because theaters are shuttered) then maybe it does open in the US in 2020. I'm just very surprised they seem to have settled on the staggered release option. I view it as a huge risk.
  9. The two arguments I will make against that point are that capacities are going to be down anyway and die hard movie fans are the most likely to come out to theaters, so tent poles or just new films I don't think the difference is as big as you're making it out to be. I agree there is some difference, I just don't think the lack of tent poles is a deal breaker. Mid and small budget new films will draw people out to see them, just out of sheer boredom and lack of things to do. The other point I'll make is that for the large chains the biggest single issue is likely concessions. It remains to be seen at what levels patrons will buy food and drinks. If a lot of people choose not to because they want to keep their mask on, that could prove to be more detrimental to the bottom line of theater chains than the lack of tent poles will be. I'll finish with this thought - summer 2020 is all but over. Even in good years that's the fertile ground to release blockbusters, for the most part. Do we really think it is a good idea to put a $200M+ budget film out in late August or into the fall, during a pandemic? I just don't see that working out.
  10. Yes, it's a factor. Spoilers aren't just a US thing. Several movie critics / YouTube channels I have watched are based in Europe. This makes Tenet a particularly bad choice for a split release. The type of film matters when releasing a movie on different dates in different markets. For a Transformers movie it isn't a big deal. For something where the plot is a large chunk of the appeal, it is a different story. I agree that theaters can't survive without new content. New films are going to have to be released. The problem is the equation you hit on. Tenet as an example has a massive budget and was funded with the outlook that it will achieve big numbers across the global markets. The studio cannot be expected to eat the loss just because the US is out of the picture at the present time. It doesn't make sense to release films with budgets of that size given the current market conditions. That's all I'm arguing. Release new movies, yes, but they should mostly be of the smaller budget variety. That'll have to do for now because you'll put the studios out of business if you ask them to take heavy losses on projects they've already filmed. Many studios have gone under during good times just because they funded multiple bombs and were sunk. The risk to the studios right now is high. Even Disney is not immune.
  11. With Tenet the risk isn't just piracy, but spoilers. I still don't think Tenet can be released without the domestic market and make money because too much info about it will get out. Also, let's be realistic about the time frames. There's no scenario where Tenet plays in the US this year, so we're not talking about a delay of weeks. It'll be measured in months. That's very abnormal and it is a risk. A movie like Mulan doesn't have this issue. We all know the plot. I think Disney could roll the dice with it and try a split release, with the expectation that it won't be on video in the foreseeable future. I don't think that's an issue either because Disney likes to play games with the availability of their films on home video. It's pretty clear from Hollywood's behavior, though, that many big budget films are going to be delayed until the pandemic is under control in the US.
  12. This is starting. My aunt and her husband were given 30 days notice to leave their dwelling on July 15th. Between them they don't have a job (my aunt lost two part time jobs) and don't know where they're going to go. I suspect they'll end up moving in with one of their daughters, both of which are married with kids. My parents offered to take my aunt in, but won't take her husband (long story). There are tons of places to rent right now, and hardly any homes for sale. It is a very strange housing situation.
  13. I think the choice should clearly be Jim Cameron. He's got that multi-generational appeal, he's a titan of the industry, and his messaging would be so good because he'd spend hours and hours perfecting it. The only problem is, he'd get the campaign off the ground in about five years, long after theaters are all gone.
  14. Yeah, that positive ratio is much higher than in other states. I don't know what that means either. Is it because Florida is testing more children, or not testing as many? Maybe they are only testing kids that appear to be symptomatic? It is an alarmingly high percentage and confirms that plenty of minors do get COVID, but it is unclear at this time exactly what the implications are.
  15. Trump continues to hide information from the public. I'm guessing the excuse here is the IRS needs to complete its audit before the data can be released.
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