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doublejack

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  • Birthday 05/05/1976

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  1. I second this. There is also the factor that box office is not recovering in the immediate future. The outlook for all or most of next year is not looking good. Will theaters rebound in the second half of 2021? Will they rebound to previous levels at any point in the next few years? We don't know. The only possible way WB was going to avoid losing money on WW84 was to delay it for an indefinite amount of time until it could make that 800M or more globally that the first film did. I don't think anyone really knows when that will become a realistic possibility. Plus, there are risks holding a movie that long. Better to get it out now and take the tax write-off.
  2. I have no direct knowledge and am just guessing based on my own experiences, but I'm assuming the UK has a nontrivial number of anti-maskers in their populace. That's the way it is here in the US. For various reasons, it is just not possible to get 100% mask compliance. If that's what Tom Cruise was facing then it would explain why the rant was made public and also why those individuals quit. This isn't an issue where there are 2 sides. People wear masks as instructed or they don't because... reasons.
  3. I think this is a case where people should put aside their preconceived views of Tom Cruise and evaluate the rant and the intent behind it on their own merit. Doing that, it is very easy to see he's got a point. This wasn't Tom Cruise the actor ranting, it was Tom Cruise the producer. His concern isn't artistic integrity, it is the safety of everyone working on set. A COVID outbreak among the cast and crew could easily shut down production, and that would have dire consequences beyond this one film. Maybe his tone and word choice weren't the best, but given the gravity of the situation I'm perfectly fine with it. This is a very serious matter. He was livid. I assume this isn't the first time he's said something, either. Finally, comparing this rant to Christian Bale's is absurd, I think. One of those people was only concerned about himself. The other is concerned about a great many people.
  4. Has to be COVID. I believe the principal photography is set for the UK, and I also believe lockdowns are expected there through March some time. This probably explains moving production to May.
  5. I think BW will either have a very short theatrical only window, like a couple weeks at most, or it will open simultaneously in theaters and on D+. The world has changed.
  6. There's still box office. It will just be peanuts compared to 2019 and earlier standards. WB isn't releasing films exclusively on HBO Max, it is just that many (perhaps most) of the domestic audience will consume them that way instead of in theaters. AT&T / WB is not going to backtrack on this. Theater count in the US is going to drop like a rock in 2021 and more content creators will go this route. The writing is on the wall. Disney has D+. I wonder what the other studios are going to do. Universal for example could sell their films (Amazon would be interested I bet), or maybe they'll end up on Hulu in some form. Strange days we're entering.
  7. This is where I'm at. I think domestic theater count is going to drop precipitously due to various factors at work, and Disney follows WB and either releases films simultaneously in theaters and on D+ or shifts to D+ as the primary means of distribution. Maybe Avatar 2 does well internationally, but in the US I think it'll be mostly a D+ event. I expected this kind of transition eventually, but this is all happening way faster than I ever imagined it could or would. I think it would take series of miraculous events to salvage an epic theatrical run for Avatar 2. The box office era as we knew it in 2019 is gone and not coming back soon, if ever.
  8. My comment was heavy on the snark. Although, in terms of their respective portrayals in the DCEU and the MCU there's no comparison. DCEU Bruce Wayne is mostly just a super wealthy emo guy, a fit Jeff Bezos with a chip on his shoulder. MCU Tony Stark built the mark 1 in a cave out of scraps with rudimentary tools, without his captors noticing. There's just no debate. I am aware that DCEU version is a dumbed down and simplified Bruce, though, whereas the MCU did a fantastic job of nailing the essence of Tony. We're getting into why I enjoy the MCU more and way OT so I'll halt there. I'll close by saying I really enjoy the animated DC films. Again, my intent was not to stoke the flames of a fanboy war. I was really just poking fun at the DCEU version of Bruce. I think this is one of the reasons the Lego Batman movie is so funny. The caricature of Bruce Wayne / Batman in the Lego movies is so on point. I loved the dig at Marvel, too.
  9. It's not none. The odds may be slim, but they are greater than zero. Disney's stock price surged after their announcement emphasizing streaming. Also, Disney did not blame COVID, only saying that it accelerated a process already in motion. How far is Disney going to go down this rabbit hole? If they become pot committed then no chips will be spared. Avatar 2 is just a very big chip. Also, Avatar 2's current release date is over 2 years out. That's a lot of time for the situation to change. It is possible the feedback loop of no new releases and theaters closing results in many theaters permanently shuttering. Disney may not have a choice to make. We're in uncharted territory. A century ago, the last time we had a comparable pandemic, movie theaters were a niche in a nascent industry. We've never experienced anything like this during the modern cinema era. So, maybe Disney converts Avatar 2 into a D+ subscriber driver and hopes to recoup investment by marketing the hell out of merchandise, something Fox did not do adequately for the original. If this franchise is going to make a mark on society it will have to transcend film. This is something Disney specializes in, and I'm sure it is why they considered Avatar the big score in the acquisition. They hope it becomes a cultural phenomena like Harry Potter and Star Wars. If you look at something like Star Wars, the film revenue is just a small fraction of the total revenue the franchise generates. Can Disney make this work without a theatrical release? Will they even try it? We've got a ton of time to chew on it.
  10. With Disney's reorg and new emphasis, what are the odds that this debuts on D+?
  11. To clarify this, because I think it is important, the Russo brothers had already pitched Civil War to Feige before BvS was announced. It was the announcement that convinced Feige it was the right direction. https://batman-news.com/2016/04/26/batman-v-superman-helped-marvel-greenlight-captain-america-civil-war/ So Feige is keeping an eye on what DC is doing and perhaps adjusting plans, but a lot of what happens in the MCU comes from within. Like you said, even Feige wanted to make a female lead superhero film and was stymied. The multiverse has been a marvel staple for decades. These aren't copycat moves. I have my suspicions why people want to claim the MCU is just stealing ideas from DC, but I'll refrain from making the accusation. Ultimately it doesn't matter. Marvel is doing Marvel, and if the MCU borrows material form anything it is the comics upon which the movies are based.
  12. Tenet is a financial disaster. It proved that films like Black Widow and Bond cannot be released in the current conditions.
  13. I don't doubt this sentiment, but in all reality there was no way Disney was going to count on PVOD revenue and Disney+ subs to defray the costs for BW and Eternals. The mouse company needs those films to clear something like 100-150M DOM for them to be satisfied. Anything less would be a disaster, and that's what would happen with a primarily PVOD release. I'd count that May 2021 release date as penciled in for BW. Disney will try to make it stick but we're in a TBD scenario. There are no guarantees. If it slips, Eternals slips too.
  14. In the US? Agreed, I think theaters that opened for Tenet that would have remained closed without such a big movie coming would have been better off if it was never released. They would have had more leverage, Hollywood wouldn't be as cautious perhaps, and theaters wouldn't have incurred as much operating cost. It has definitely been a double edged sword. There were a bunch of theaters that had already opened, though. For these theaters Tenet was a boon. Also, in Canada and overseas markets the theaters benefited from Tenet. So it was a mixed bag. I think the failure was completely predictable and unnecessary, but there are a number of businesses that are thankful it was released.
  15. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but the last time Avatar was re-released in China it made something like $1.5M. Odds of retaking #1 look low. Also, it was re-released in New Zealand in August. The total haul was $92, according to BOM.
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