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About doublejack

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  • Birthday 05/05/1976

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  1. There are two AMC locations near me that are still open on most weekdays. However, they further reduced hours in what is only their second or third week after reopening. They only operate long enough for two showings per screen. They open at 5, movies start at 5:15 and the last showings start around 8. For whatever reason they are closed on Thursdays.
  2. My comment was heavy on the snark. Although, in terms of their respective portrayals in the DCEU and the MCU there's no comparison. DCEU Bruce Wayne is mostly just a super wealthy emo guy, a fit Jeff Bezos with a chip on his shoulder. MCU Tony Stark built the mark 1 in a cave out of scraps with rudimentary tools, without his captors noticing. There's just no debate. I am aware that DCEU version is a dumbed down and simplified Bruce, though, whereas the MCU did a fantastic job of nailing the essence of Tony. We're getting into why I enjoy the MCU more and way OT so I'll halt there. I'll close by saying I really enjoy the animated DC films. Again, my intent was not to stoke the flames of a fanboy war. I was really just poking fun at the DCEU version of Bruce. I think this is one of the reasons the Lego Batman movie is so funny. The caricature of Bruce Wayne / Batman in the Lego movies is so on point. I loved the dig at Marvel, too.
  3. You're right that mitigating measures make a difference. That's been proven. There may also be a link between HVAC use and COVID spread, regardless of season, though. This virus doesn't appear to be as temperature sensitive as the one behind influenza, but it seemed to spread worse over the summer in areas where AC is heavily used.
  4. I agree we're looking at a huge drop in theater counts. I think it could be over 50%, unless we start seeing more drive-ins. Evidence shows there's strong demand for that business model. The only way I see to avoid this scenario is if we get enough stimulus in 2021 to kick start a strong recovery. Otherwise the economic impacts will be deeper and the recovery will be protracted. Demand for commercial real estate is in the tank, and projected to grow at just .1% annualized for the next decade. Remotely working is also going to shut down service industry businesses that depend on office workers for mid-day customers. In Detroit, hardly any restaurants are going to survive. Some have gotten by with outdoor seating, but as winter approaches their options are dwindling. Basically, I think the odds of a v-shaped recovery are low. That's going to mean investors with deep pockets are going to buy up properties for pennies on the dollar and just hold them, not looking to reopen failed businesses. It is classic accumulation activity we see during recessions.
  5. Two chains have now opened in my area of Michigan. AMC and a small operator called Emagine that has a handful of locations. AMC is open 7 days a week according to the listings, but has hours limited to 3-10pm. Showings aren't starting after 8 or 8:30. The Emagine has similar hours most of the week, but opens up at noon on Saturdays. No idea what kind of crowds they're drawing. I live in an area of low mask compliance and the sheriff has gone on record that he's not enforcing mask wearing, so there's no chance I'm going in person. I may drive by the parking lot of the Emagine that's 2 miles away on my travels. If I do I'll take a note of how busy it is. There may be some demand locally since entertainment options have been near zero and theaters were just given the green light to open this week. The handful of independent theaters in the area all appear to have remained closed voluntarily. One is selling take out concessions and their marquee indicates they're on intermission and 25% capacity isn't sufficient to reopen.
  6. To clarify this, because I think it is important, the Russo brothers had already pitched Civil War to Feige before BvS was announced. It was the announcement that convinced Feige it was the right direction. https://batman-news.com/2016/04/26/batman-v-superman-helped-marvel-greenlight-captain-america-civil-war/ So Feige is keeping an eye on what DC is doing and perhaps adjusting plans, but a lot of what happens in the MCU comes from within. Like you said, even Feige wanted to make a female lead superhero film and was stymied. The multiverse has been a marvel staple for decades. These aren't copycat moves. I have my suspicions why people want to claim the MCU is just stealing ideas from DC, but I'll refrain from making the accusation. Ultimately it doesn't matter. Marvel is doing Marvel, and if the MCU borrows material form anything it is the comics upon which the movies are based.
  7. Realistically, I'd say it will be early to mid February before any kind of stimulus is possible. In theory it could happen during the lame duck session, but I doubt it. That would be negotiated by people who will probably not be in power after Jan 20th.
  8. This hits home with me. I was supposed to be let go end of August because the primary customer I support left. Well, one of my coworkers decided to retire and his last day was 8/31. So I'm still around, for now. Customers keep leaving and my employer is shipping hundreds of jobs offshore. We learned that a couple weeks ago. I'm actively looking because I don't feel any security at all. The job market is not good, though. In 2-3 months of looking I've only had one interesting lead, and they didn't even interview me. So we continue to hoard money and keep our eyes open. The holidays are going to be extremely scaled back in the household.
  9. Unfortunately, it is not out of the picture that we surpass 1M COVID deaths in the US even if Biden wins. COVID is everywhere. I fear what's going to happen in the next four months as the weather gets colder. Trump is not leaving until Jan 20th at the earliest if he loses.
  10. Agreed. There's a theater near me that exclusively shows films from the catalog, many on 70mm. I think there's enough demand (in ordinary conditions) to sustain one such specialized theater in a medium to large market. It does become problematic when all the theaters are doing it, though. There are only so many people willing to go out and see classics on the big screen. During a pandemic that number becomes even smaller. If multiple theaters are doing it then there's simply not going to be enough audience to go around. Ironically, the theater that specializes in classics shut down voluntarily in March and announced months ago that they were not going to reopen this year. Their audience skews older so I believe it was a sound decision. There are a couple of drive-ins, one that's been around forever and one that opened this summer, that are playing a lot of classics. Business has been great, but with the weather changing I don't know if that will continue.
  11. They'll close. I know they are saying it is just a consideration, but with basically no new content coming there's no reason to stay open. Closing loses them less money over the next several months. This becomes a vicious feedback cycle, where the few movies still scheduled for a 2020 release move out of their dates, prompting even more theaters to shut down.
  12. Where I live, bars have been closing. I'm not talking about during the COVID era, I mean over the last 5-6 years. Scores of bars are gone and it is far more than the usual turnover. There is maybe half the bars, or less, compared to what existed in the 80s and 90s. Why? It is more than just the ability to make drinks at home. Bars have been an age old place to meet people, and that's been replaced with online and mobile options. Why spend a bunch of money on drinks and struggle to converse over loud music where there's a relatively small pool of people, when you can sit on your couch and watch TV of whatever and thumb through a large pool of potential matches on Tinder? I think bars will always be a thing, but that business is in decline, too.
  13. -edit The story was posted. I went back and checked. Damn. This is playing out like a worst case scenario. I expect some kind of bankruptcy announcement from AMC sooner rather than later, unless they can borrow another large sum of money to buy another 6-9 months. I doubt it happens, though. I think they are pretty tapped out.
  14. I don't mean to imply that every movie that's made needs to be of the ultra-low budget variety. I think the studios would be wise to put a pause on all tentpole style films, though. Something like Joker with a reported $55M budget seems reasonable. That paid living wages and could still be profitable in the conditions Tenet released into. If I'm a studio exec, I'm not greenlighting any expensive films for quite a while. I think it'll take years for that market to return.
  15. You make some excellent points. I just think it'll be a while, years even, before $200M tentpoles become huge moneymakers again. So, small ball is going to be the game. Sure, many of those films will be misses and turn out poorly or be received poorly. Still, it only takes a relatively small percentage of them to be commercially successful to sustain the business model. Films can still bring in $20-50M domestically even amid the pandemic. That's a lot of headroom for a small budget film to profit.
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