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About doublejack

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  • Birthday 05/05/1976

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  1. I second this. There is also the factor that box office is not recovering in the immediate future. The outlook for all or most of next year is not looking good. Will theaters rebound in the second half of 2021? Will they rebound to previous levels at any point in the next few years? We don't know. The only possible way WB was going to avoid losing money on WW84 was to delay it for an indefinite amount of time until it could make that 800M or more globally that the first film did. I don't think anyone really knows when that will become a realistic possibility. Plus, there are risks holding a movie that long. Better to get it out now and take the tax write-off.
  2. I have no direct knowledge and am just guessing based on my own experiences, but I'm assuming the UK has a nontrivial number of anti-maskers in their populace. That's the way it is here in the US. For various reasons, it is just not possible to get 100% mask compliance. If that's what Tom Cruise was facing then it would explain why the rant was made public and also why those individuals quit. This isn't an issue where there are 2 sides. People wear masks as instructed or they don't because... reasons.
  3. I think this is a case where people should put aside their preconceived views of Tom Cruise and evaluate the rant and the intent behind it on their own merit. Doing that, it is very easy to see he's got a point. This wasn't Tom Cruise the actor ranting, it was Tom Cruise the producer. His concern isn't artistic integrity, it is the safety of everyone working on set. A COVID outbreak among the cast and crew could easily shut down production, and that would have dire consequences beyond this one film. Maybe his tone and word choice weren't the best, but given the gravity of the situation I'm perfectly fine with it. This is a very serious matter. He was livid. I assume this isn't the first time he's said something, either. Finally, comparing this rant to Christian Bale's is absurd, I think. One of those people was only concerned about himself. The other is concerned about a great many people.
  4. Has to be COVID. I believe the principal photography is set for the UK, and I also believe lockdowns are expected there through March some time. This probably explains moving production to May.
  5. The only thing about this is the numbers won't just skyrocket in Florida. People from around the country have traveled and are traveling there for the usual holiday vacation getaways.
  6. It isn't exactly the same, sure. There's nothing like the shared experience of sitting in the dark with hundreds of strangers watching a film. However, viewing parties are a thing. Lots of Americans watch the Super Bowl that way and have for decades. PPV events like boxing and MMA also draw viewing parties where friends gather. These are a lot more fun that watching something alone. I don't see any reason that big film releases can't shift nicely to a streamed on TV events. GoT episodes were successful that way.
  7. Yeah, let's see how that works out. There is no way that after a year of getting "free" movies for $15 a month WB is going to be able to reverse that. This is permanent. The damage will be done. Theater count will be a fraction of what it was, and relying on box office for the primary revenue stream won't be viable. Even if it is safe and even if a larger percentage of theaters somehow manage to survive than I'm anticipating, people will be conditioned to no longer go to theaters.
  8. I think BW will either have a very short theatrical only window, like a couple weeks at most, or it will open simultaneously in theaters and on D+. The world has changed.
  9. There's still box office. It will just be peanuts compared to 2019 and earlier standards. WB isn't releasing films exclusively on HBO Max, it is just that many (perhaps most) of the domestic audience will consume them that way instead of in theaters. AT&T / WB is not going to backtrack on this. Theater count in the US is going to drop like a rock in 2021 and more content creators will go this route. The writing is on the wall. Disney has D+. I wonder what the other studios are going to do. Universal for example could sell their films (Amazon would be interested I bet), or maybe they'll end up on Hulu in some form. Strange days we're entering.
  10. DOM theaters are in serious trouble now. I expect the national theater count to drop below 2k next year. Many won't survive this. As for streaming services, WB and HBO are part of a conglomerate. I think this will fuel Disney to do the same thing with D+. Netflix, Amazon, etc are going to be competing for talent for their own content even more now. Consumers are either going to have to pick and choose what to watch, or subscribe to a bunch of different streaming services. Entertainment fragmentation and micro-targeting of audiences ramps up further. That's definitely coming. Tent poles appear DOA to me, at least over the next several years. I think it'll be a long time before we get another spectacle along the lines of Endgame or TRoS. Can you imagine the new Avatar films premiering on D+? Something else to think about, will China step up and supplant Hollywood as the world's preeminent big budget film producer?
  11. That's the scary bit. We are all but a lock to surpass 4k deaths a day at some point this month. The medical system is about to be pushed to the breaking point in multiple locations.
  12. I think it will be toward the end of 2021 or into 2022 before much of the US, Canada, Europe, etc have been vaccinated to the point that it has an impact. Wide availability is not close, and for both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines remember that two doses are required so you have to cut the quoted supply in half to get an idea of how many people they will cover.
  13. I'll keep this non-political, but the views encountered by this nurse are exactly why COVID is not controlled and will not be controlled in the US. The well has been poisoned.
  14. In addition to the subscriber income limitations that others covered, I wanted to mention that there are contractual restrictions that are in play here as well. It is not as easy as Disney just deciding to move films from cinema to D+. For example, ScarJo has a clause in her contract that gives her a chunk of the back end on BW. This is going to guarantee either a theatrical run or Disney will have to renegotiate with ScarJo and compensate her some other way. If I'm a Disney exec, given the current situation I don't want to open that can of worms and would rather hold the film until they can release it and recoup as much of the budget as they can. PVOD can come after. I'm sure there are more than a couple of people who have similar clauses in their contracts. The bottom line is that if Disney does relegate itself to using D+ as the primary monetization stream it is going to have an impact on the finished product. You are simply not going to get a 200M tent pole releasing exclusively on D+ any time soon.
  15. Things are bout to get really ugly in the states In Michigan, the delusional republicans want to impeach the governor, who enjoys broad support among voters. Meanwhile we're heading toward more than 10,000 cases a day here and our hospitals are on the brink of collapsing under the strain. I think the temporary hospitals that were created back in the spring are going to have to be recreated. I am assuming they were decommissioned a while ago.
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