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Presales for IW down 10% from yesterday. Chances of having substantial increase look slim. Hoping for at least 20M tomorrow.

205.96M after Tuesday. So 31M for Mon-Tue. Needs to drop sub-60% this weekend to stay on course for 400M.

It seems the push/fudge/creative accounting that was required to push it to 2B has started. Or the totals may have been simply revised upwards after factoring in new ER etc. 9.3M in 2 weekdays after 32M OS-China weekend. Should add another 4-5M for weekdays portion. With another 6M from China for Wed-Thu, OS will be at 1250M before the weekend.

China will finish at 350M. So it needs good holds in other markets this weekend. For DOM, Hoping for 17M+ 3-day / 22M+ 4-day, which would enable it to finish with 665-670M. For OS-China, hoping for 17M+ weekend, which would enable it to finish with 980-985M.

IW has crossed 2B!! Today was just 21m. Weekend looking like Thu: 18 Fri: 25 (+40%) Sat: 50 (+100%) Sun: 35 (-30%) Will finish with 2220-2230M it seems ($350M).

Thanks.

Haha... Thanks. Watched Avengers with a friend, Avengers 2 with girlfriend, Avengers 3 with fiance, and will watch Avengers 4 with wife..... all of them the same girl.

New job has been too hectic. Got engaged too. Don't get a lot of time for hobbies like Box Office now, but had to be back for Avengers!!

Yeah.... too close. Right now my projections yield 1.99-2.005B, but I doubt Disney is gonna leave it hanging 5-10M short of the mark. Btw, how are you, B? Has been a while....

20% drop for IW today. It seems that "How Long Will I Love You" breaking out is having some impact on IW, both in terms of showtimes and in terms of gross. Presales will finish at 4m today, will do ~22M tomorrow and cross 2B. Next weekend looking to do 105-125M.

This 3.5M increase in WW total goes a long way in assuaging the fears of missing 2B. The range is still 1.99-2.01B IMO, but now it is headed for the high end instead of the low end. Should be at 1.855B before the weekend, and should get around 55M for the weekend.

What is your prediction? 1B+ should happen, no?

DP2 has already overperformed. So it doesn't matter where it goes from here. That being said, $10M is almost a lock. Should finish with 11M or so (would have been 12M if the exchange rate hadn't gone to the toilet during the last month). Pretty good for an "Adults only" film, I would say.

Pretty good opening all things considered. 400M OS should happen. 450M looks out of reach though. Should cross 300M by next weekend.

IW should add another 36M during weekdays (9M DOM, 11M OS-China, 16M China). So it will be at 1850M prior to the weekend. IW must get the following figures next weekend to stay on track for 2B: DOM: 17M OS-CH: 17M CHINA: 20M

Pretty harsh drop for OS-China. Hope actuals go up a bit. Right now, another 186M is required to reach $2B. Further grosses that can be expected: DOM - 65-70M OS-CH - 55-60M CHINA - 50-55M So it will need to hit the respective high ends, and then some, in order to reach $2B. Average case, it seem to be heading for 1.99B, but I doubt Disney is going to leave it there.

There is a chance it may go higher... say 135M.

Sunday midpoint should be 30min earlier than Saturday i.e. 2PM. 65.5M @2PM. Doubling this gets it to 131M. $54m weekend. $350m projected finish.

Presales will finish with 25M. Down 10% from Sat. 125M+ Sunday likely.

Civil War did 294M after 92M 2nd Saturday. (3.2x) AoU did 217M after 77M 2nd Saturday. (2.8x) Assuming 3x for IW, it will finish with 2.22B ($348M).

Update: DOM looking at 28M weekend whereas China looking at 52-53M, which means 660M DOM and 350M China finish. So around 105-110M required from OS-China, which would mean 38-40M OS-China weekend is required.

Will depend on this weekend drop. It is at 885M after counting weekdays. If it drops to 35M, then it will probably add another 60-65M thereafter for a 980-985M finish. If it can do 40M, then it will add another 75-80M thereafter, and will cross 1B OS-C.

Why does one daily gross result in such extreme reactions? One good number and TFA is going down... one bad nunber and 2B is gone? Right since the OW... 1.9-2.1B was the range. 2B was never locked and still isn't. 2B was never out of question, and still isn't. This weekend will give a fairly good estimate. IW is almost exactly at 1700M after weekdays (~3M will be counted towards OS weekend). Whatever the respective weekend grosses are, 3.25-3.5x may be expected from DOM, 2.75-3x may be expected from OS, and 1.8-2x may be expected from China. To lock 2B... 30M DOM, 40M OS and 50M China is required. Even with 90% of these numbers, 2B will still be possible, although a bit difficult.

Yes... no point in putting too much stock in OS dailies; the numbers may fluctuate for a variety of reasons.

71M @2:30PM Should double that amount. So, a 100% jump!