mahnamahna

Honestly, I'm thinking it'll be similar to fall 2003 where everything did solid, but not gigantic. (Except Martian) September Hotel Transylvania 2: $130 million The Maze Runner 2: $115 million Black Mass: $100 million Everest: $80 million The Intern: $60 million The Visit: $50 million October The Martian: $205 million Bridge of Spies: $145 million Crimson Peak: $120 million Pan: $110 million Goosebumps: $105 million Steve Jobs: $70 million The Walk: $55 million

Well Spectre and Good Dinosaur are way too obvious. MI5 would need to be Fury Road good to have a shot at $300 million+ Ant-Man wouldn't be anonymous due to the Marvel brand and GotG doing the exact same thing last summer The Martian is based on a #1 best seller and could be Ridley Scott's return to form, so not exactly anonymous especially since Gravity did $275 million 2 years ago I'm thinking Pixels as the last 'huh????' mega-breakout for 2015 - $250 to 300 million, with Straight Outta Compton pulling a surprise $180-200 million a close second. Both of those would be odd. Trainwreck or Vacation or both breaking $200 million DOM would be 'huh????' too

Maze Runner 2? The Walk? Pan? The Martian? Crimson Peak? Everest isn't the only blockbuster esque film this fall. I'm actually thinking this Fall approaches 2002/2003 attendance due to how well-rounded it is

Katzenberg over saturating the market did them in Pixar's taken 20 years to release two films in a single calendar year. DreamWorks has done it since 1998

Umm Good Dinosaur isn't doing $30 million+ its 6th weekend even with super legs I'd love to see it do $300 million+ DOM. But $6-8 million is far more likely. Maybe $10-12 million Star Wars 7 is locked to win New Year's. everything else will cannibalize each other

HTTYD2 is a better comparison since IO has no family friendly competition this week. A 33-36% drop for the weekend. No way IO does a 45-50% drop with zero new competition 2014: Transformers 4 2013: DM2, Lone Ranger 2012: Amazing Spider-Man 2011: Transformers 3 2010: Last Airbender 2009: Ice Age 3 It's the first July 4th frame without a kid-friendly film since 2008. IO is also holding better than past June Pixar releases. It's much more realistic than your 25-30% drop predict against Minions.

IO 6.8 9.1 7 9.5 13 9 12 JW 6.4 8 5.5 6.5 11 8 12 31 for JW, 34 for IO

7/3-7/5 Jurassic World: $38 million ($582 million) Inside Out: $36.5 million ($263 million) Terminator Genysis: $34 million ($59 million) Magic Mike XXL: $21 million ($39 million) Ted 2: $16 million ($66 million) Max: $9 million ($31 million) Spy: $6 million ($100 million) San Andreas: $3 million ($148 million) Me and Earl and the Dying Girl: $2 million ($4 million) Dope: $1.5 million ($14 million) 7/10-7/12 Minions: $127 million Jurassic World: $24.5 million ($628 million) Inside Out: $17 million ($295 million) Terminator Genysis: $16 million ($91 million) Gallows: $10.5 million Ted 2: $10 million ($85 million) Magic Mike XXL: $9 million ($56 million) Spy: $5 million ($110 million) Max: $4.5 million ($39 million) Self/Less: $4 million 7/17-7/19 Ant-Man: $78 million Minions: $63 million ($250 million) Trainwreck: $27 million Jurassic World: $13 million ($652 million) Inside Out: $12 million ($318 million) Terminator Genysis: $6.5 million ($103 million) Ted 2: $4 million ($92 million) Gallows: $3.5 million ($18 million) Magic Mike XXL: $3 million ($62 million) Spy: $2 million ($114 million) 7/24-7/26 Pixels: $57 million Ant-Man: $32 million ($140 million) Minions: $30 million ($308 million) Paper Towns: $23 million Trainwreck: $19.5 million ($66 million) Inside Out: $8.5 million ($334 million) Jurassic World: $8 million ($667 million) Southpaw: $5.5 million Terminator Genysis: $3 million ($109 million) Ted 2: $2 million ($96 million) 7/31-8/2 MI5: $69 million Pixels: $33 million ($120 million) Vacation: $24 million ($37 million) Minions: $16 million ($341 million) Ant-Man: $14 million ($167 million) Paper Towns: $12 million ($46 million) Trainwreck: $10 million ($85 million) Inside Out: $7.5 million ($348 million) Jurassic World: $4.5 million ($675 million) Southpaw: $3.5 million ($12 million)

less than $15 million over a 4 day inflated holiday period?

I agree. If SA had released May 22, Spy/IO released 5/29, and Terminator to 6/26, with MI5 taking July 4th, then I could see $230-270 million for MI5 Pixels - $240 million MI5 - $220 million Ant-Man - $175 million Fantastic Four - $145 million I think they can co-exist. Pixels is a family comedy, and MI5 is for older adults. F4 and Ant-Man go for the exact same fanboy demo so they'll hurt each other the most. But I think there's room if every major film targets a different sub demo and there's some space. July 2015 ought to be one of the most highly attended on record

Except TS3 had a horrible 3rd weekend hold due to Last Airbender Inside Out should drop 30-35%. And after Minions have 15-35% drop until Labor Day $335-340 million is the floor at this point

When 15-20 films a year are doing $150 million+ DOM, that isn't exactly a mega-hit unless the budget was $2 million. This year is huge 1. American Sniper 2. Cinderella 3. Furious 7 4. Avengers 2 5. Jurassic World 6. Inside Out 7. Minions 8. Ant-Man 9. Pixels 10. MI5 11. The Martian 12. Spectre 13. Peanuts 14. Mockingjay Part 2 15. Good Dinosaur 16. Star Wars Episode VII All of which (5-16) have at least a relatively decent shot at $200 million DOM. 6 of them could do $300 million+ DOM beyond the initial 4. A top 10 with all $300 million+ grossers. Would be mind boggling...

With 35-37 million for both this upcoming weekend... even with Ted 2 underperforming, these two are keeping summer 2015 afloat

You think I'm kidding? When Arnold came on screen, I heard more than one chuckle and actually one groan. Not a good sign for any trailer that doesn't include jokes/goofy one liners. By the end of the trailer, the people around me were more or less saying 'that looks stupid'. They didn't sound excited to go see it. And I don't blame them - the official trailer plays like one of those Honest Movie Trailers, just without the over-the-top narration/subtitles. Either way, JW exploding like it did will hurt Terminator even if reviews don't affect it.

JW: $37 million IO: $36 million Terminator: $33 million Magic Mike XXL: $25 million Ted 2: $18 million It's certainly possible if Terminator underperforms. IO could also do it, too. July 4th is small enough for JW/IO to hold decently.

Because everytime I've seen the Terminator trailer in a theater (in front of Avengers 2 on opening night), everyone was laughing by the second half of the trailer. It's clear GAs aren't taking it seriously as a tentpole. For something like Minions, critical reception doesn't matter, since little kids will enjoy most anything so long as it's funny to them. But for a franchise that already had a horrible installment 6 years ago, it needed to have some great reviews to have a decent shot at success. I don't know a single person (average Joe/Jane) who's hyped for Terminator. I've heard plenty get excited about Minions, Pixels and even F4, though.

All I was saying is that there's a real possibility of IO and JW finishing above Terminator/Magic Mike for the 3 day. Terminator is getting awful reviews and XXL is going to be extremely frontloaded.

Terminator: $30.5 million/$52 million 5 day Jurassic World: $36 million/$58 million 5 day It's certainly possible. Especially if Terminator has a lackluster Wed and Thurs.

Considering it's the last major family-friendly film of the summer, less than a 3x would surprise me. From a $60 million OW, I'd say $195-205 million DOM. $55 million OW... $175-185 million DOM. I could see this going as big as $230-250 million DOM, though... especially if Ant-Man disappoints with $50-55 million OW.

Using WALL-E's multi from a $90 million OW would give Inside Out $320 million. I think it'll do more since it should be at $300-305 million by July 12th. And July/August will give it 15-30% drops after Minions. Minions targets little kids, while IO has more teen/adult appeal. After Minions' OW, IO will have some great holds until after Labor Day since Shaun and Underdogs won't be big. If IO does $54-55 million this weekend, and manages to hold decently next weekend, it should be over $15 million against Minions even with a 50% drop. I'm thinking 30-33% since Terminator/Magic Mike aren't exactly kid-friendly. Every other Pixar animated film had major family competition over July 4th (Ice Age 3/Transformers 2 for Up, DM2/Lone Ranger for MU, Amazing Spider-Man for Brave, Superman Returns for Cars, Transformers 1 for Ratatouille, Transformers 3 for Cars 2) except WALL-E.

a 50% drop with zero family friendly competition over a holiday frame? Same for JW? Jurassic World has held well for a while... and Terminator isn't looking like a mega-hit. JW should be able to do $35-40 million this weekend after a $55-57 million 3rd weekend. IO should do $35-40 million since it's defying classic Pixar June opener holds. Magic Mike should be much lower. $35-40 million for the 5 day... $62 million?? Similar to Ted 2, it's a sequel not too many people asked for.

If Inside Out had been Pixar's November release and Disney gave this an epic Oscar push, I'd agree. But since this is a summer release, it'll take a beyond-epic Oscar push to make Best Picture or Best Director happen. Especially when Disney is likely only going to push Bridge of Spies this year. I could see a Best Picture nod if most of the Oscar bait underwhelms or if Bridge of Spies gets mixed reception. I do think both Sound categories, Score, Original Screenplay and BAF are locks. With wins for BAF and Score near-locks. Original Screenplay is also very possible if the Academy doesn't want to give Tarantino a 3rd Oscar yet or if O'Russell doesn't impress.

After the great reviews, I was thinking it would have a 4x-4.5x, similar to you. However, I expected $40-45 million OW on its way to $160-200 million DOM. Considering the budget, Tammy's horrid reception, and the fact that it will end up above Ted 2, Spy did extremely well it also leaves room for Trainwreck or Vacation to explode at the end of July. Maybe even both if Pixels, Ant-Man, Minions and MI5 cause a lot of sellout spillover. After all of the 'Pixar movies ONLY hold this, this and this' from so many doom-and-gloom predicters, IO just came and flat-out showed them it's a completely different beast. If it holds great next weekend, and drops less than 55% against Minions (I'm thinking 48-52%), it's pretty much set for 20-30% drops the rest of its run. Which should get it just across a 4x I think ($350-380 million DOM is my current range for it) Jurassic World is doing phenomenal, still! If it beats Avengers 1's 3rd weekend record, $35-40 million is possible for the July 4th frame. And if it breaks Avengers 1's 4th weekend, I'd say $650 million DOM is pretty much in the bag. I do think JW will drop 16-18% on Sunday as opposed to 22-26%. $55-57 million 3rd weekend is phenomenal. Ted 2 just happened to underperform, and target a different R-rated demo than Spy. Spy targets older adults and older women, while Ted 2 targets teens, college kids and young women. There's slight overlap from men, but both have enough differences for them to co-exist. I think the same will happen for Trainwreck and Vacation next month. ....it was always going to pass up with a $90 million OW and zero competition for its first 2.5 weeks but $53-55 million 2nd weekend does lock $300 million DOM and I'd even dare to say $325 million is near locked (WALL-E had the lowest original Pixar multi and it did $320 million. This has far more GA appeal than WALL-E, so it should hold up at least a little better) $35 million (30% drop... unlike other animated films on July 4th, Inside Out has no direct family competition) - $268 mlilion DOM $17 million (52% drop... Minions will hurt, but IO should stabilize) - $305 million DOM $13 million (25% drop... Ant-Man double features) - $330 million DOM $9 million (33% drop... Pixels hurts it a little more) - $347 million DOM $7.5 million (20% drop... zero competition) - $361 million DOM (4x!!!) $5.5 million (30% drop... Shaun hurts slightly) - $370 million DOM $3.5 million (38% drop... Underdogs hurts slightly) - $375 million DOM $2.75 million (20% drop... zero competition) - $378 million DOM $2 million (30% drop... zero competition) - $380 million DOM $3 million/$4 million (Labor Day boost) - $385 million DOM $390 million-$395 million DOM after dollar theater run. Of course, if it holds slightly better than expected on Sunday, has a $40-42 million July 4th frame, and does $20-21 million against Minions, I might just say $400 million DOM is locked since there's no major direct competition the rest of the summer. Shaun and Underdogs aren't on the same level.

But unlike Brave, IO had a $90 million OW. $24 million than Brave's OW. Having a better 2nd weekend drop than Brave despite a $25 million lead would be phenomenal. Monsters Inc, Incredibles, Up and Finding Nemo are the only semi-recent Pixar films to have had sub-35% drops in their 2nd weekends, anyway. 38-40% was the lowest IO would have gone. Plus, Terminator and Magic Mike having minimal kid appeal should help Inside Out drop 20-30% next weekend. Assuming $48.7 million 2nd weekend, I would say $37 million next weekend, $43 million weekdays, so $80 million for the week. That's $263 mililon DOM. After that $17 million (Minions' drop) - $296 million $13 million (Ant-Man double features) - $321 million $9 million (Pixels not being direct comp) - $338 million $7.5 million (MI5/Vacation not being direct comp) - $352 million $5 million (Shaun hurts it slightly) - $361 million $3.5 million (Underdogs hurts it again) - $366 million $2.5 million (no comp) - $369 million $2 million (no comp) - $371 million $3 million/$3.75 million - $376 million $1.5 million - $378 million $382-385 million DOM finish. That's my best-case scenario at this point. I don't see this missing $300 million DOM, which is a win for this. Anything more is gravy, especially with Minions coming up and JW breaking out big time.

Should drop 45-50% against Ant-Man, Pixels, MI5 and F4. But July 4th could have a 25% drop since Terminator isn't exactly going to be huge, and Minions double features could keep JW at a 30-35% drop the week after, which would be enough for at least $620 million. From a $50 million 3rd weekend: $35 million over July 3rd frame $40 million for weekdays ($571 million) $23 million over July 10th frame $21 million over weekdays ($615 million) $10 million over July 17th frame $9 mlilion over weekdays ($634 million) $5.5 million over July 24th frame $4.5 million over weekdays ($644 million) $3 million over July 31st frame $2.5 million over weekdays ($650 million) $1.5 million over August 7th frame $1.5 million over weekdays ($653 million) $660 million or so DOM finish That 32-34% hold against Ant-Man's $55 million-$75 million OW is questionable. Same with the 25-30% drop against MI5. I can see the rest of your predicts happening, though. I think it'll hold decently enough over the next two weekends to just get over $650 million. If it has a sub-40% drop against Ant-Man, also, then I'd say $650 million is a near-lock.