kitik

It seems like it would make more sense to just leave them as TBD then.

In a worst-case scenario where theaters ARE shut down for the entire year, and don't reopen until January (or later), it seems like it would pretty much kill ultra-big budget movies. There's no way you could justify spending $300M (200 production plus 100 p&a) on any movie, not even Black Panther 2. There would simply be no guarantees that the audience would come back. Or that there wouldn't be another theater shutdown the following year.

Once again, Disney has been cooking the books! They're obviously trying to artificially inflate Mulan's numbers. They're trying to make it look like a big hit instead of the flop that it is. Caught red handed!

Were they reporting presales from a month ago???

Yeah, after waiting years and years, what's another 6 months?

erc twitter says it finally gave up on April 10, now "tbd"

So just judging by China, you're not going to want to open your giant Black Widow/Wonder Woman tentpole in the first week or two after theaters reopen. (Which we already knew, but here's some hard numbers.) https://deadline.com/2020/03/china-movie-theaters-open-500-international-box-office-1202890025/ It'll be interesting to hear reports from China over the new few weeks.

Yes indeed, they are an impressive machine. When things do restart, it'll be interesting to see if the big studios like Disney and WB are able to ramp up much faster than others. Speaking of production restarting, it seems like we will probably be at a point (hopefully as soon as this summer) where things are okay to proceed again. But I'm thinking, it may not be the same for every country. Will a production in Australia be able to start up a few weeks or even a month sooner than a production in UK or US? Or vice versa? If so, part of the release schedule going forward may be decided by which films picked the right country to film in. Or do we think it would start all at the same time globally?

Did you mean to respond to someone else? I was responding to someone about Falcon and Winter Soldier. There's no question at this point that both movie and tv schedules are going to face a massive upheaval.

Bob Iger officially announced it would debut in August during the quarterly investors call about 6 or 7 weeks ago.

With filming not yet complete, there's a very realistic chance that Falcon and Winter Soldier will not be ready to debut by the planned August release date. We could be looking at a significant wait for new MCU content.

wow, so Friday was smaller than Thursday?

So now I'm wondering, how are theaters going to reopen? Obviously we have no clue what the future holds at this point, just a broad hope/expectation that things get back to normal, whatever that word may mean going forward. But if you start with the basic assumption that theaters will reopen, the question is how they would go about it. Would 4000 theaters nationwide all announce in unison that they're all opening at one time on June 1 (or September 1 or whenever)? Would it go state-by-state? Could theaters in California open a week or three before theaters in Florida? Chain by chain? What would they play? A mix of current movies and Marvel/Harry Potter/etc marathons? You have to imagine they would only schedule a skeleton crew to work. In fact I'm sure some theater employees are currently applying at grocery stores, gas stations, and other places that are remaining open. So some theaters could be fairly understaffed when they reopen. But assuming small numbers, of both employees and movie goers, would some theaters, lets say a 20-screen megaplex, only bother to schedule movies on 10 of those screens? It's not like any movie, at least in that first experimental week of reopening, is going to need more than one screen to play on. When will studios be brave enough to open new movies? You have to think the first weeks will only see smaller movies open, but it's possible that the only way to really get the audiences to head back to theaters in big numbers will be to open a really big blockbuster like Black Widow or Wonder Woman. It'll probably take something like that (or Mulan/Soul/Top Gun/whatever) to encourage people to really head back to theaters.

the last daily numbers for a long time? Will some studios still report tomorrow? Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D 1 (1) Onward Walt Disney $33,296 -46% -98% 4,310 $8 $61,555,145 14 2 (4) The Invisible Man Universal $21,800 -34% -98% 3,636 $6 $64,914,050 21 3 (3) Bloodshot Sony Pictures $18,549 -49% 2,861 $6 $10,021,787 7 4 (2) I Still Believe Lionsgate $15,753 -59% 3,250 $5 $9,868,521 7 5 (6) The Call of the Wild 20th Century… $14,657 -15% -97% 3,201 $5 $62,342,368 28 6 (5) The Hunt Universal $13,100 -46% 3,028 $4 $5,812,500 7 7 (7) Sonic The Hedgehog Paramount Pi… $9,191 -44% -98% 3,041 $3 $146,066,470 35 8 (8) The Way Back Warner Bros. $6,871 -7% -99% 2,718 $3 $13,590,514 14 9 (9) Bad Boys For Life Sony Pictures $5,691 -12% -97% 1,451 $4 $204,417,855 63 10 (10) Fantasy Island Sony Pictures $4,733 -14% -92% 515 $9 $26,441,782 35 11 (11) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $3,620 -2% -98% 2,173 $2 $84,158,461 42 12 (12) Emma Focus Features $850 -69% -100% 1,732 $0 $10,055,355 28 - (-) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $774 -70% -99% 862 $1 $316,831,246 98 - (-) Brahms: The Boy II STX Entertai… $598 -46% -99% 607 $1 $12,611,536 28 - (-) Star Wars: The Rise of Sk… Walt Disney $582 +5% -97% 189 $3 $515,202,542 91 - (-) Gretel & Hansel United Artists $558 +421% -84% 43 $13 $15,347,654 49 - (-) Spies in Disguise 20th Century… $454 +59% -96% 136 $3 $66,757,013 86 - (-) Dolittle Universal $400 -27% -98% 256 $2 $77,047,065 63 - (-) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $343 +224% -96% 211 $2 $36,001,502 86 - (-) 1917 Universal $225 -70% -100% 766 $0 $159,227,644 86 - (-) Knives Out Lionsgate $220 -18% -99% 221 $1 $165,363,254 114 - (-) The Booksellers Greenwich $148 +1,750% -88% 3 $49 $25,694 14 - (-) Frozen II Walt Disney $117 -24% -99% 165 $1 $477,373,578 119 - (-) The Photograph Universal $110 -65% -100% 198 $1 $20,578,185 35 - (-) The Gentlemen STX Entertai… $96 -72% -100% 226 $0 $36,296,854 56 - (-) Wendy Searchlight … $44 -48% -99% 165 $0 $143,518 21 - (-) The Last Full Measure Roadside Att… $41 -45% -97% 36 $1 $2,949,212 56 - (-) Ford v. Ferrari 20th Century… $40 +14% -99% 55 $1 $117,624,357 126 - (-) My Boyfriend’s Meds Lionsgate $25 -58% -100% 133 $0 $2,971,116 28 - (-) Burden 101 Studios $22 -99% 109 $0 $139,270 21 - (-) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight $18 -33% -100% 74 $0 $33,370,906 154 - (-) Hope Gap Roadside Att… $6 -95% -100% 132 $0 $104,732 14

Netflix gonna sweep!

Note that without Disney reporting, it’s near impossible for any box office analyst to assemble any type of top 10 chart for either domestic or global B.O. Well, that's the end of this thread.

Shockingly good hold for Fantasy Island. I almost wonder if it's a misprint, and they mean 3532 or something like that instead. Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D 1 (1) Onward Walt Disney $61,529 -82% -97% 4,310 $14 $61,521,849 13 2 (2) I Still Believe Lionsgate $38,694 -84% 3,250 $12 $9,852,768 6 3 (3) Bloodshot Sony Pictures $36,123 -84% 2,861 $13 $10,003,238 6 4 (4) The Invisible Man Universal $32,835 -76% -97% 3,636 $9 $64,892,250 20 5 (5) The Hunt Universal $24,340 -79% 3,028 $8 $5,799,400 6 6 (7) The Call of the Wild 20th Century… $17,263 -75% -97% 3,201 $5 $62,327,711 27 7 (6) Sonic The Hedgehog Paramount Pi… $16,397 -81% -97% 3,041 $5 $146,057,279 34 8 (8) The Way Back Warner Bros. $7,368 -87% -99% 2,718 $3 $13,583,643 13 9 (10) Bad Boys For Life Sony Pictures $6,487 -75% -98% 1,451 $4 $204,412,164 62 10 (-) Fantasy Island Sony Pictures $5,532 -39% -94% 515 $11 $26,437,049 34 11 (11) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $3,679 -77% -98% 2,173 $2 $84,154,841 41 12 (9) Emma Focus Features $2,710 -92% -99% 1,732 $2 $10,054,505 27 - (-) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $2,604 -70% -98% 862 $3 $316,830,472 97 - (12) Brahms: The Boy II STX Entertai… $1,115 -88% -99% 607 $2 $12,610,938 27 - (-) 1917 Universal $740 -87% -99% 766 $1 $159,227,419 85 - (-) Star Wars: The Rise of Sk… Walt Disney $554 -78% -97% 189 $3 $515,201,960 90 - (-) Dolittle Universal $550 -79% -98% 256 $2 $77,046,665 62 - (-) The Gentlemen STX Entertai… $343 -72% -99% 226 $2 $36,296,758 55 - (-) The Photograph Universal $310 -74% -99% 198 $2 $20,578,075 34 - (-) Spies in Disguise 20th Century… $286 -87% -98% 136 $2 $66,756,559 85 - (-) Knives Out Lionsgate $268 -75% -99% 221 $1 $165,363,034 113 - (-) Frozen II Walt Disney $153 -89% -99% 165 $1 $477,373,461 118 - (-) Gretel & Hansel United Artists $107 -84% -97% 43 $2 $15,347,096 48 - (-) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $106 -89% -99% 211 $1 $36,001,159 85 - (-) Wendy Searchlight … $85 -76% -99% 165 $1 $143,474 20 - (-) Baaghi 3 FIP $61 -85% -100% 257 $0 $721,439 13 - (-) My Boyfriend’s Meds Lionsgate $60 -97% -100% 133 $0 $2,971,091 27 - (-) Downhill Searchlight … $44 -72% -98% 24 $2 $8,287,061 34 - (-) Ford v. Ferrari 20th Century… $35 -93% -99% 55 $1 $117,624,317 125 - (-) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight $27 -94% -100% 74 $0 $33,370,888 153

lol, read this: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/245740830-Weekend-Theater-Counts-Early-Reports-Point-to-a-Steep-Dive-in-Screens ------------------------------------------------------------------ Due to the ongoing current events regarding COVID-19, the majority of studios have yet to announce theater counts. We have included those who have, and will update accordingly as they are released. Theater Counts for weekend of March 20 - March 22 Movie Distributor Theaters Previous Theaters Change The Way Back Warner Bros 201 2,718 -2,517 Birds of Prey (And the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) Warner Bros 48 1,014 -966 Brahms: The Boy II STX Entertainment 26 607 -581 The Gentlemen STX Entertainment 11 226 -215 ----------------------------------------------------------------- I mean, it's not like the current theater counts are a sign of your movie being good or bad or whatever.

Gal Gadot getting a bit of bad press right now. Likely to be forgotten by the time this movie comes out, whenever that may be, but you never know. I don't think anyone is calling her a bad person or anything, just tone deaf. If it ever gets worse than that, there will likely be backlash against the backlash, so for now I'll guess no real negative effect on WW84.

It's gonna come back when theaters reopen, right? Surely Hollywood won't dump 5 new openers on the market all at once when theaters reopen. Holdovers like Onward should have a chance to continue their runs. Of course, as soon as the older movies start making some decent money, studios will see that as a sign that it's safe to dump some new titles on the market. We may get a few movies that are released super quickly with very little time for marketing.

Wednesday could see some even worse "%LW" drops. Last Tuesday, Bad Boys made $418K. (Which was a really good weekday this far into its run!) This Tuesday, it made $25K. Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D 1 (1) Onward Walt Disney $346,334 -54% -91% 4,310 $80 $61,460,320 12 2 (3) I Still Believe Lionsgate $235,336 -50% 3,250 $72 $9,814,074 5 3 (2) Bloodshot Sony Pictures $215,312 -61% 2,861 $75 $9,937,349 5 4 (4) The Invisible Man Universal $138,605 -66% -93% 3,636 $38 $64,859,415 19 5 (5) The Hunt Universal $113,745 -68% 3,028 $38 $5,775,060 5 6 (6) Sonic The Hedgehog Paramount Pi… $84,093 -59% -91% 3,041 $28 $146,040,882 33 7 (7) The Call of the Wild 20th Century… $68,899 -54% -93% 3,201 $22 $62,310,448 26 8 (8) The Way Back Warner Bros. $55,380 -62% -95% 2,718 $20 $13,576,275 12 9 (9) Emma Focus Features $32,000 -64% -95% 1,732 $18 $10,051,795 26 10 (10) Bad Boys For Life Sony Pictures $25,606 -70% -94% 1,451 $18 $204,405,677 61 11 (11) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $15,812 -71% -95% 2,173 $7 $84,151,162 40 12 (-) Brahms: The Boy II STX Entertai… $9,261 -69% -94% 607 $15 $12,609,823 26 - (-) Fantasy Island Sony Pictures $9,015 -59% -93% 515 $18 $26,431,517 33 - (12) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $8,554 -76% -95% 862 $10 $316,827,868 96 - (-) 1917 Universal $5,860 -78% -97% 766 $8 $159,226,679 84 - (-) Dolittle Universal $2,645 -58% -94% 256 $10 $77,046,115 61 - (-) Star Wars: The Rise of Sk… Walt Disney $2,465 -64% -91% 189 $13 $515,201,406 89 - (-) Spies in Disguise 20th Century… $2,251 -46% -84% 136 $17 $66,756,273 84 - (-) My Boyfriend’s Meds Lionsgate $1,724 -45% -96% 133 $13 $2,971,031 26 - (-) Frozen II Walt Disney $1,418 -54% -91% 165 $9 $477,373,308 117 - (-) The Gentlemen STX Entertai… $1,211 -80% -98% 226 $5 $36,296,415 54 - (-) The Photograph Universal $1,180 -82% -97% 198 $6 $20,577,765 33 - (-) Knives Out Lionsgate $1,082 -81% -97% 221 $5 $165,362,766 112 - (-) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $984 -89% -92% 211 $5 $36,001,053 84 - (-) Gretel & Hansel United Artists $677 -43% -85% 43 $16 $15,346,989 47 - (-) Burden 101 Studios $474 -89% -92% 109 $4 $139,248 19 - (-) Ford v. Ferrari 20th Century… $470 -36% -93% 55 $9 $117,624,282 124 - (-) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searchlight $454 -64% -96% 74 $6 $33,370,861 152 - (-) Baaghi 3 FIP $407 -90% -99% 257 $2 $721,378 12 - (-) Wendy Searchlight … $355 -92% -95% 165 $2 $143,389 19 - (-) Downhill Searchlight … $157 -50% -95% 24 $7 $8,287,017 33 - (-) Swallow IFC Films $86 -83% -93% 39 $2 $26,369 12 - (-) Premature IFC Films $13 -85% -88% 1 $13 $23,071 26

Our drive in theater is still closed for winter. I think they usually open sometime in April. We'll see.

95% drops from last week, and that's on a discount Tuesday. Wednesday will see a bigger than usual Tuesday-to-Wednesday drop, because I know of a few theaters that were open yesterday and are closed today. So Wednesday will probably give us some 50% drops from Tuesday. Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per Thr Total Gross D - (2) Bloodshot Sony Pictures $200,000 -63% 2,861 $70 $9,922,037 5 - (4) The Invisible Man Universal $138,605 -66% -93% 3,636 $38 $64,859,415 19 - (5) The Hunt Universal $113,745 -68% 3,028 $38 $5,775,060 5 - (6) Sonic The Hedgehog Paramount Pi… $84,093 -59% -91% 3,041 $28 $146,040,882 33 - (8) The Way Back Warner Bros. $55,380 -62% -95% 2,718 $20 $13,576,275 12 - (9) Emma Focus Features $32,000 -64% -95% 1,732 $18 $10,051,795 26 - (10) Bad Boys For Life Sony Pictures $25,000 -71% -94% 1,451 $17 $204,405,071 61 - (11) Birds of Prey (And the Fa… Warner Bros. $15,812 -71% -95% 2,173 $7 $84,151,162 40 - (-) Fantasy Island Sony Pictures $9,000 -59% -93% 515 $17 $26,431,502 33 - (12) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $9,000 -75% -95% 862 $10 $316,828,314 96 - (-) 1917 Universal $5,860 -78% -97% 766 $8 $159,226,679 84 - (-) Dolittle Universal $2,645 -58% -94% 256 $10 $77,046,115 61 - (-) The Photograph Universal $1,180 -82% -97% 198 $6 $20,577,765 33 - (-) Just Mercy Warner Bros. $984 -89% -92% 211 $5 $36,001,053 84

I saw a few theaters with showtimes for Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire today. I don't know if that was planned way in advance, or if it was a last-minute space filler due to releases being postponed. And at this point, getting onto screens in 10 or so theaters might be enough to get you into the top 10 nationwide.

Disagreed. I think there's a finite limit to how long you can keep people locked up in their homes. Society can't shut down for too long. Two months from now, we'll be able to say whether all these shutdowns worked or not. If they worked, and covid numbers are way down, then everyone will want to pat themselves on the back and get back to work. If they don't work, and numbers stay high for two straight months, then people will say there's no point, and we might as well get on with business as usual as much as it's possible anymore. We'll get a preview in a few weeks when China fully opens everything up again.