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how about a conspiracy about Greatest Showman holding up? anyone got crowd reports from Greatest Showman? it should be hitting 100 today! I hope Hugh has good luck with his next movie!

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2016&view=releasedate&view2=domestic&sort=gross&order=DESC&&p=.htm 2016 had 9 above 300 2017 going to have 8 That 360 mark might get touched again for a fifth time if J makes it 2016 had 6 at 360

wow, I was about to congratulate @Sheikh and the good move of putting Insidious, Showman, and Jedi at around 12m each, but it looks like someone else came ahead, but very very close. Maybe there is an error w/ something. Shiekh had 3.36 for Ferdinand. I had 3.25. I wanted to whine about how that played out because I think we both had the lowest predicts for Ferdinand. .. Friday was 0.6 million and it ended with 3.53 for the 3-day. I feel like it should have been at the 3.25 max I predicted on Thursday. oh well

Jumanji should attract over 500 people per location next weekend which would give $4,465 min PTA. The Post did 767 this weekend including previews. Getting 500 people per location next weekend too will get it close to 13 million. A good question for next week could be this... 12 Strong vs Hostiles vs Forever My Girl vs the likely 500 avg of The Post and Jumanji. Will these new movies max out with the other top films next week and thereby post Opening Weekends of possibly 15, 15, and 3? Or is 10 million + looking like a more friendly occupancy selling just above (or at the cusps) of The Commuter and Showman, Insidious, and TLJ with cumulation domestic TC PTA comparisons. What is the best conclusion that can be drawn now? lol.

I looked and Sundays will be terrible next week. 10% avg over Friday seems best. 20% max. If one suspects Fridays will suck, make the Sundays up 10% on average typiccal Fridays first, then deflate the Friday once Sunday and Saturday are finished. Showman could do 2.5 + 3.5 + 3.0 next weekend. The 28% drop will look steep, but I just dont see Sundays blw

3 Billboards needs to get those extra categories. I have it nominated for 5. Editing, picture, director, actress, s. actor and screenplay and then winning two. what else can it get nominated for? I have The Shape of Water with 14, but it could bust.

10x this weekend would be like 25. maybe 20-30 million more domestic? http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=foxsearchlight.htm with Shape of Water in the running too!

3 Billoards averaged 97 people per location on Sunday. **Will update in correct daily once shown Last week Three Billboards played at 310 locations. It averaged 67, 113, 75 over Fri, Sat, Sun before going on to win best picture at the golden globes. Then the average attendance dropped just 4.3% to 71 people/theater on that Monday. there was an 84 avg on Tuesday which is more like 100 w discount Tuesday. then 79 for Wednesday and 60 for Thursday. Bring on the expansion to 1,022 (+712). Friday equaled 70 people/ location at 1,022. theater count tripled, averaged weekday and weekend attendance from previous 7 days stayed the same. Triple the count, triple the grosses. the grosses are coming in proportional to the expansion. Friday was 70, Saturday at 111m, and Sunday is looking at over a third from Friday So Three Billboards is averaging

will Greatest Showman hold beyond 8.8 million next weekend? in other words, will good attendance continue? if you view year to year about the weekend after MLK, it can go from 150 million to 100 million. Is there any reason next weekend should dip below 120 million from a potential 160 this weekend? http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/?yr=2016&p=.htm

for Sunday, Greatest Showman might be up 40% on Friday. Ridiculous. if the Monday is the same as the Friday, then minus 29.5% and 98.3 total. 100 by Wednesday.

If The Post Sun/Fri ratio = Insidious Sun/Fri ratio, then The Post would have done 19.35 million (factoring out previews and then re-adding them). The Post is reported at 19.30 million. This is very good for anything new, even when comparing to PG-13 horror which has been backloaded lately. We do not have dailies yet, but The Post seems well up 10% from it's actual Friday. Monday could be -27.5%. Next weekend, it should make 13.

Going by attendance from Friday, Monday should be over 10% Friday at least for The Last Jedi. over 3 million Monday, 598.00 total after Thursday going into weekend #6, upon to loose 600 more locations for 2,490 spots. $3,906 average this weekend. Looking at 6-7.5 next weekend. 605 total.

up 0.795. 4.266 Sunday perhaps, at least much over 50% from Fridays number. makes sense. Insidious 4 was up over 10%, PP3 over a third from Friday.

Insidious averaged $3,952.3 w/ 3,150 theater counts. 12.45 weekend. It should loose about 700 theaters for its third weekend when contracts are up, especially with the influx of at least 10,000 new pictured prints going to new locations. this would make 2,450 locations. a good average to look at PTA wise is $2,450. That makes $6,002,500 for the third weekend, a 51.8% drop, and a $2,450 PTA is 62% of this weekend's PTA for Insidious: The Last Key. This might do 75 million total. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=exorcismofemilyrose.htm 2005 Date (click to view chart) Rank Weekend Gross % Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week # Sep 9–11 1 $30,054,300 - 2,981 - $10,081 $30,054,300 1 Sep 16–18 2 $14,851,719 -50.6% 2,983 +2 $4,978 $51,561,110 2 Sep 23–25 5 $7,448,102 -49.9% 3,045 +62 $2,446 $62,256,212 3 Sep 30–Oct 2 7 $4,380,280 -41.2% 3,004 -41 $1,458 $68,502,023 4 Oct 7–9 13 $2,442,028 -44.2% 1,827 -1,177 $1,336 $72,130,811 5 Oct 14–16 18 $955,509 -60.9% 1,040 -787 $918 $73,827,336 6 Oct 21–23 27 $360,959 -62.2% 394 -646 $916 $74,456,138 7 Oct 28–30 29 $262,252 -27.3% 372 -22 $704 $74,808,873 8 Nov 4–6 32 $177,353 -32.4% 253 -119 $701 $75,072,454 9

weekdays sucked for PP3 and attendance equaling last weeks Tue-Thurs delivers it to a total of 98.08 w/ a 3 million minimum week #5 101.08 total, 110 max.

PP3 MAYBE MON=FRI. 96.44 TOTAL.

Girls Trip? theater retention and 3m next weekend? stronger weekdays.... is this really only a weekend mvoie? the weekdays sucked

saying 'Jumanji' sounds better IMO. it seems catchy. there is a drum beat. maybe the Distributors have an affect w the cutting of the film?

more likely this alternate number for 5th weekend $16,240,098 (-40.7%) - 313.52 the average is 16.78, 314.04 total. after 5th weekend.

predicted Sunday 9.1875 for 27.37 weekend. Jumanji's Monday -13% = 7.7 Tues 2.7 + 1.69 + 1.69 = 297.28 million predicted 5th weekend $17,322,771 (-36.7%) 314.60 total

I think the name 'Jumanji' is helping to sell it. that name must be getting alot of hits right now. check out The Founder with Michael Keaton. Right title at right time. Welcome to Jungle. Jungle Book 3. Skull Island. too bad Terminator Genysis did not survive the countdown that was similar to Jurassic World

20 minutes with http://www.goldderby.com/odds/combined-odds/oscars-nominations-2018/ Looking at odds for borderline picks and just shooting from the gut here. Only saw Dunkirk, Get Out, Big Sick, Wonder Woman, BR2049, Beguiled, Baby Driver of the majors. Ranking them S Editing S Mixing VFX Animated Song Score 1 Dunkirk 1 Dunkirk 1 - Star Wars 1- Coco 1 - Coco 1 - Shape/Water 2 Baby Driver 2 Baby Driver 2 - Apes 2- Showman 2 - Dunkirk 3 Star Wars 3 BR2049 3 - Water 3- Call Me By 3 - Phantom Thread 4 BR2049 4 Shape/Water 4 - BR2049 4 - Marshall 4 - The Post 5 Shape/Water 5 Showman 5 - Dunkirk 5 - Mudbound 5 - Darkest Hour Original Screenplay Adapted Screenplay PRODUCTION DESIGN CINEMATOGRAPHY Costumes 1 - Lady Bird 1 - Call Me By 1 - Shape/Water 1 - Dunkirk 1 - Phantom Thread 2 - Get Out 2 - Molly's G 2 - Dunkirk 2 - Shape/Water 2 - Greatest Showman 3 - 3 Billboards 3 - Disaster A 3 - BR2049 3 - BR2049 3 - Darkest Hour 4 - Shape/Water 4 - Wonder 4 - Darkest Hour 4 - Darkest Hour 4 - Shape/Water 5 - The Big Sick 5 - Mudbound 5 - Greatest Showman 5 - Mudbound 5 - BATB 6 - The Post 6 - All the $$ 6 - The Post 6 - 3 Billboards 6 - Beguiled 7 - Phantom Thread 7 - Last Flag Flying 7 - Phantom Thread 7 - Beguiled 7 - Victoria & Abdul 8 - I, Tonya 8 - BATB 8 - Call Me By 8 - Dunkirk 9 - Beguiled 9 - Get Out 10 - 3 Billboards Editing 1 - Dunkirk 2 - Shape/Water 3 - Baby Driver 4 - Get Out 5 - 3 Billboards 6 - BR2049 7 - The Post 8 - Lady Bird 9 - Call Me By S Actress S Actor Actor Actress Director Picture 1 - I, Tonya 1 - 3 Billboards 1 - Darkest Hour 1 - 3 Billboards 1 - Shape/Water 1 - Shape/Water 2 - Lady Bird 2 - Florida Project 2 - Phantom Thread 2 - Lady Bird 2 - Dunkirk 2 - 3 Billboards 3 - Shape/Water 3 - Shape/water 3 - Call Me By 3 - Shape/Water 3 - Lady Bird 3 - Lady Bird 4 - Mudbound 4 - Call Me By 4 - Disaster Artist 4 - The Post 4 - 3 Billboards 4 - Call Me By 5 - The Big Sick 5- All the $$ 5 - Get Out 5 - I, Tonya 5 - The Post 5 - Get Out 6 - Downsizing 6 - Call Me By 6 - The Post 6 - Molly's Game 6 - Get Out 6 - Dunkirk 7 - 3 Billboards 7 - Stronger 7 - All the Money 7 - Call Me by 7 - The Florida Project 8 - Mudbound 8 - Roman J Israel 8 - Victoria and Abdul 8 - Phantom Thread 8 - The Post 9 - The Beguiled 9 - Greatest Showman 9 - Florida Project 9 - I, Tonya 10 - Shape/Water 10 - Darkest Hour 10 - Phantom Thread 11 - The Big Sick 12 - All the Money in the World 13 - Mudbound 14 - Darkest Hour 15 - Wonder Shape of Water - 14 nominations - 4 wins Dunkirk - 9 nominations - 4 wins 3 Billboards - 5 nominations - 2 wins Darkest Hour - 5 nominations - 1 win Lady Bird - 5 nominations - 1 win Call Me By Your Name - 4 nomination - 1 win Phantom Thread - 4 nominations, 1 win I, Tonya - 3 nominations - 1 win Coco - 2 nominations - 2 wins The Post - 4 nominations Florida Project - 2 Blade Runner 2049 - 5 Greatest Showman - 4 Mudbound - 4 Disaster Artist - 2 Baby Driver - 3 Star Wars - 3 The Big Sick -2 Apes - 1 Marshall - 1 Wonder - 1 All the Money - 1 Beauty and the BEast - 1

Ok thanks for reading. The fourth weekend of January should stabilize with Maze Runner opening in probably 4,000 locations. The 2018 Academy Award nominations are set for announcement on Tuesday, January 23rd, and I am hankering to do a very brief guesstimate of the nominations. What I mean is, which ones will get alot, do a top 7 of each category, dont stress over the song and score categories. be back.

These should suffice for next week for figuring out running totals. Bring Jumanji's Saturday down 30% in PTA and make the next weekend out to have $5,000 PTA. Use 3,700 theaters and get 18.5. Use these below and change if desired. It seems as if the Maze Runner weekend will not affect holdovers. Previous years continued net expansion of TC's on the second weekend after MLK. The most amount of movies being shown then should be at its peak and then hold that for the Winchester weekend during Super Bowl weekend. It looks like during Maze Runner's weekend, you should only subtract about 4,000 due to Maze Runner only. Then there should be a net expansion of 1,500+ which would be attributed to expansions. These 31 movies show 43,031 Theater counts. This list shows 8,056 TC's are departing from this week to next, and 10,393 of new TC's incoming. This gives a net +2,337 from the third weekend of January to the fourth weekend. Then Super Bowl is on Feb 3rd with Winchester getting 3,000 and no net gain from fourth January weekend. that means all Academy Award expansions will have to be balanced with TC losses! the previous weekend (maze Runner) should show highest expansion yet for Academy Award runners, and depending on how they go, will determine how they expand further over Super Bowl Weekend. Remember, max screens because the following 3 weeks of February will be hacking and slashing TC counts. Awards movies should be competitive, but I am sure if you follow it, you will see these films really spread around well compared to like, when Thanksgiving release TC's crumble during the 10 Days of XMAS box office. 3,702 - Paddington 2 - weekend #2 3,702 - Jumanji (-147) 3,000 - Hostiles 3,000 - 12 Strong 2,892 - Commuter - weekend #2 2,819 - The Post - weekend #2 2,640 - Den of Thieves 2,513 - The Greatest Showman (-425) 2,490 - Star Wars (-600) 2,450 - Insidious 4 (-700) 2,125 - Proud Mary - weekend #2 1,605 - Pitch Perfect 3 (-900) 1,268 - Darkest Hour (-425) 1,034 - I, Tonya (+517) 1,008 - Molly's Game (-700) 922 - 3 Billboards (-100) 908 - Coco (-454) 754 - Ferdinand (-1,400) 723 - Shape of Water 562 - Phantom Thread +500 562 - Forever My Girl - new 371 - Disaster Artist 348 - Call Me By Your Name +174 320 - Wonder (-650) 222 - Thor (-20) 208 - All the Money in the World (-1,000) 206 - Justice League (-20) 206 - Downsizing (-206) 189 - Marshall (-189) 181 - Daddy's Home 2 (-20) 101 - Father Figures (-100)

Currently, these are the 9 movies and their respective TC's... Insidious 4 - 3,150 Star Wars - 3,090 Greatest Showman - 2,938 Pitch Perfect 3 - 2,505 Darkest Hour - 1,693 Molly's Game - 1,708 Ferdinand - 2,154 Wonder - 970 All the Money in the World - 1,408 With the Hostile 3,000 takeover, Molly's Game is going to be the one to probably take the biggest hit. Places where it is not performing will give it up more likely now, maybe. All the Money should shed a little more, but it will still find its spots. I got Greatest Showman ceding 10% and Insidious and Star Wars dropping 500 each with Insidious on the hook for more. (-1,200) All the Money in the World (208) (-1,400) Ferdinand (754) (-425) The Greatest Showman (2,513) (-700) Insidious (2,450) (-600) Star Wars (2,490) (-900) Pitch Perfect (1,605) (-425) Darkest Hour (1,268) (-700) Molly's Game (1,008) (-650) Wonder (320)