dxmatrixdt

Last year, the Oscars were a bore and received poor ratings. La La Land was front and center. Mostly all the movies performed better on Sunday than Friday. Even Fifty Shades Darker dropped under 50%. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2017-02-26&p=.htm This year, the wealth has been spread out amongst all nominees and I believe every category except for Animated Feature is up for grabs. I expect Black Panther to drop 33% this time, not 25%. Also, look for Fifty Shades Freed to drop about 50% and for all drops to be similar to the year before (Mad Max vs Revenant vs Big Short vs Spotlight) http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2016-02-26&p=.htm

When I was covering budgets for supernatural horror movies, I noticed What Lies Beneath and Lost Souls from 18 years ago had huge budgets. $100 for What Lies Beneath and $50 for Lost Souls. Sifting through 2000, even Lucky Numbers cost $63, Get Carter $64, Bless the Child $65, Almost Famous $60, and Bait $51. Alot of those films cost over twice what they would now...

this weekend is looking to have a net increase of 1,000 theater counts from last weekend. I thought it would be more, given Awards expansions. Looks like Shape of Water and 3 Billboards are holding off and whoever wins will probably double next week. Darkest Hour, Call Me By Your Name, Phantom Thread and I Tonya got the bigger boosts despite having lower per theater averages last week. Looking at what is happening next weekend, that is necessary for them. With all the incoming product, they might as well go to home video next week. It seems there will be about 13,000 incoming theater counts next weekend plus any awards expansions. Black Panther reducing showtimes in its 4th weekend to probably 2 screens/theater minimum vs the new Disney movie getting probably 2 screens/theater minimum. Yikes! cutting theater counts after this weekend would be like a college professor grading one of my math or science exams. Get out a red pen and hack and slash!

crap... this was the selection where I deviated the most from the average, I think.. Fifty Shades Darker dropped its PTA by 2/3 in weekend #4. If Fifty Shades Freed follows that ratio, it would make 3.81. Fifty Shades Darker did 3.575 in its fourth weekend on less screens and dropped 54%. I should have at least settled for -50% from last weekend and a 3.59 million weekend for 50 Shades Freed. If the actual number lands right in the middle, 3.5 million range, that would probably cost me a few slots when the scores come in. 50 Shades Freed DCFilmsuck - 3.90 boxofficetracker - 3.89 Matrix4You - 3.80 boxofficeth - 3.54 Sheikh - 3.50 Exxdee - 3.50 Tower - 3.47 Bates - 3.45 kayumanggi - 3.44 Deja23 - 3.40 Simionski - 3.40 Furiousa - 3.40 8wombi7 - 3.38 feasby007 - 3.33 PanaMovie - 3.32 sloth - 3.30 Chipmunky - 3.30 JMorphin - 3.29 Wildbill - 3.29 TalismanRing - 3.25 Johnny - 3.22 Premium George - 3.21 POTUS - 3.21 Man-Thing - 3.21 Keanu - 3.21 BobDole - 3.19 Rolling Thunder - 3.12 Boxx93 - 3.00 WrathofHan - 3.00 Fancyarcher - 2.80

for the sake of the future of mankind, I hope Black Panther ends its run at 666.00 million.

OPENING WEEKENDs for adult action/thriller or actor's films - last two years 2016 opening weekends Rules Don't Apply - 1.6 Keeping Up With the Joneses - 5.5 Criminal - 5.8 The Choice - 6.1 Eddie the Eagle - 6.1 Triple 9 - 6.1 Masterminds - 6.5 Florence Foster Jenkins - 6.6 Birth of a Nation - 7.0 Collateral beauty - 7.1 Race - 7.4 Whiskey Tango Foxtrot - 7.5 Mechanic: Resurrection - 7.5 Free State of Jones - 7.6 Snowden - 8.0 Mother's Day - 8.4 Bridget Jones 3 - 8.6 Finest Hours - 10.3 Why Him? - 11.0 Dirty Grandpa - 11.1 Nice Guys - 11.2 Ben-Hur - 11.2 Hail, Caesar - 11.4 Risen - 11.8 Allied - 12.7 Gods of Egypt - 14.1 When the Bough Breaks - 14.2 War Dogs - 14.7 Money Monster - 14.8 Miracles From heaven - 14.8 Inferno - 14.9 Passengers - 14.9 Almost Christmas - 15.1 Hacksaw Ridge - 15.2 13 Hours - 16.2 Office Christmas Party - 16.9 My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 - 17.9 How to Be Single - 17.9 Deepwater Horizon- 20.2 London Has Fallen - 21.6 Now You See Me 2 - 22.4 Jack Reacher 2 - 22.9 The Boss - 23.6 Bad Moms - 23.8 Accountant - 24.7 Magnificent Seven - 34.7 Sully - 35.0 Central Intelligence - 35.5 2017 opening weekends Collide - 1.5 Same Kind of Different as Me - 2.6 Subirbicon - 2.8 Just Getting Started - 3.2 Father Figures - 3.3 The Snowman - 3.4 The Founder - 3.4 Gold - 3.5 Megan Leavey - 3.8 Thank You For Your Service - 3.8 The Promise - 4.1 The Glass Castle - 4.7 Unforgettable - 4.8 Downsizing - 5.0 All the Money in the World - 5.6 Only the Brave - 6.0 mother! - 7.5 Logan Lucky - 7.6 CHiPs - 7.7 Rough Night - 8.0 Sleepless - 8.3 Home Again - 8.6 The House - 8.7 The Circle - 9.0 Kidnap - 10.0 Mountain Between Us - 10.6 Going in Style - 11.9 Fist Fight - 12.2 Life - 12.5 The Foreigner - 13.1 Geostorm - 13.7 American Assassin - 14.8 King Arthur - 15.4 The Shack - 16.2 Bad Moms 2 - 16.8 American Made - 16.8 A Dog's Purpose - 18.2 Atomic Blonde - 18.3 Baywatch - 18.5 Snatched - 19.5 Baby Driver - 20.6 Hitman's Bodyguard - 21.4 Wonder - 27.5 Murder on the Orient Express - 28.7 Daddy's Home 2 - 29.7 John Wick 2 - 30.4 Girls Trip - 31.2 The Mummy - 31.7 So far this year is doing significantly better and it all started right around November with Murder on the Orient Express and Daddy's Home 2. However, it looks like movie-pass did not help influence Just Getting Started, Father FIgures, or Downsizing. Movie-pass is just a guess as to why movies are doing better. Also, the uptick might just be because people want to go to the movies more. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/chart/?yr=2018&view=releasedate&view2=domestic&sort=opengross&order=DESC&&p=.htm ^^ Fifty Shades, Game Night, 12 Strong, Den of Thieves, The Commuter, 15:17 to Paris, Annihilation, Winchester and Forever My Girl all seemed to do well on the high end so far.... up next is Red Sparrow, Death Wish, and Hurricane Heist.

huge scores all around!

yeah, but I bet they were strong for Mortdecai too?

is Death Wish really going to do that well? is this movie-pass related? All of these regular adult action/thriller movies that were supposedly fading to netflix are suddenly hitting well at the box office.... Den of Thieves tripled my prediction.... This means the adult action films from 1990-2005 might be back!!! Maybe Geostorm could have doubled OW? Hurricane Heist 20m OW?

nonetheless, 3BB, Darkest Hour, and Shape of Water should push towards 60M. I, Tonya will pass 30m, Lady Bird 50m+, The Post 80m+, ... the only one that sticks out to me is The Florida Project under 6m and one nomination.

does anyone here bet on the awards? http://www.realmoneysportsbetting.com/bet-academy-awards-oscar-odds-2018/

anything that does not win awards on Sunday will be taking a massive theater count dump the week after.

reminds me of when Brooklyn pulled ahead of Spotlight every weekend in the rankings through January and February 2016

but the title of this thread now states to pick just one.

i thought we were picking our favorite + runner up??

Theater Counts next weekend + Red Sparrow - 3,100 + Death Wish - 2,900 Game Night - 3,488 Annihilation - 2,012 Black Panther - 4,020 Every Day - 1,667 The Post - 795 Darkest Hour - 795 Call Me - 675 Phantom Thread - 651 I, Tonya - 423 Commuter - 138 (week 8) Molly's Game - 104 (-371) Peter Rabbit - 3,336 (-653) Fifty Shades - 2,612 (-250) Jumanji - 2,269 (-550) 15:17 to Paris - 2,202 (-200) Greatest Showman - 1,401 (-352) Maze Runner - 600 (-352) Winchester - 500 (-800) Samson - 340 (-16) Coco - 250 (-198) 12 Strong - 250 (-42) Star Wars - 250 (-166) Hostiles - 250 (-125) Den of Thieves - 225 (-68) Forever - 150 (-4,143) so far.... subtracting 857 from Early Man gives -5k next weekend (-857) Early Man - 1,637 (+400) Lady Bird - 1,001 (+400) Three Billboards - 1,091 (+400) Shape of Water - 1,121 Suppose these three awards films add 1200 theater counts next weekend, and the only way for this to work is for Early Man to loose an equivalent amount...

will The Last Jedi get a re-release before home video?

looks like about 5,000 theater counts will drop for next weekend.

I knew Black Panther was crumbling right when it failed to exceed 30 million on Tuesday. Let alone, 25.

Movie Tickets sales Black Panther - 64.5% Peter Rabbit - 7.4% Game Night - 7.0% Annihilation - 3.8% Fifty Shades - 3.1% Is it usual for animated movies to always be ranked this high? Peter Rabbit has been owning it on here during the WEEKDAYS. Maybe it has something to do with the website and this particular movie selling well on this website?

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I think 0.115 for Every Day might be more than Before I Fall.... Glass Castle did 0.138. That looks like a promising number for Every Day, which could push 3 million now for the weekend. I had it at 2.6 in the derby. Anyone who had it at 3 or more might have the upper hand at winning the Derby this weekend now. *cough @Bates cough*

Tomb Raider too?

Maybe something increases to 150 in its second weekend? Kind of like what happens sometimes with films in China?

0.4 million???