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just watch out for the back 3 weeks of February. It will have to rank amongst the best in weekends #6, #7 and #8 to have a shot at 425. It is possible the way the weekends have swung out of the holidays and if the weather is good, it might hold. i have yet to look at NATM other than its MLK Monday relationship with previous respective dailies

Next weekend, Hostiles will probably get 3,000 locations. 12 Strong could push to 3,000 Den of Thieves could go as high as 10% over its 2,400+ as 2,640 locations. I mentioned above, Paddington 2 was second most at 3,702 this week. It could hold flat and tie with Jumanji next weekend. 3,702 - Paddington 2 3,702 - Jumanji 3,000 - Hostiles 3,000 - 12 Strong 2,640 - Den of Thieves http://www.boxofficemojo.com/studio/chart/?studio=roadsideattractions.htm Roadside Attractions has taken films upwards of 500 locations in 2016 and 2017. If Phantom Thread adds 500 and gets to 562, that makes it simple to group new release 'Forever My Girl' with Phantom Thread for TC's 3,702 - Paddington 2 3,702 - Jumanji 3,000 - Hostiles 3,000 - 12 Strong 2,640 - Den of Thieves 3,702 - Paddington 2 3,702 - Jumanji 3,000 - Hostiles 3,000 - 12 Strong 2,640 - Den of Thieves 562 Phantom Thread 562 Forever My Girl I, Tonya has the potential to double its 517 next weekend. 1,034 (+517). Lady Bird should stabilize at 652. Shape of Water should stabilize at 723. 3 Billboards saw same dense crowds in 1,000 locations as it did with 310 on Monday. No reason it should shed too much. Call Me By Your Name probably doubles its TC's as a maximum. 348 (+174). Disaster Artist might have to fight to retain 371 locations. Marshall's performance is bewildering right now. It may half its 378 locations next weekend. (-189) Coco seems like it still has a few more weekends to perform well. It might only loose 2/3 of its TC's next weekend. JL, Thor, DH2, should be settling into second run theaters and so might just loose 20 locations each. 3,702 - Paddington 2 - weekend #2 3,702 - Jumanji (-147) 3,000 - Hostiles 3,000 - 12 Strong 2,892 - Commuter - weekend #2 2,819 - The Post - weekend #2 2,640 - Den of Thieves 2,125 - Proud Mary - weekend #2 1,034 - I, Tonya (+517) 922 - 3 Billboards (-100) 908 - Coco (-454) 723 - Shape of Water 562 - Phantom Thread +500 562 - Forever My Girl - new 371 - Disaster Artist 348 - Call Me By Your Name +174 222 - Thor (-20) 206 - Justice League (-20) 206 - Downsizing (-206) 189 - Marshall (-189) 181 - Daddy's Home 2 (-20) 101 - Father Figures (-100) This should 22 movies and 30,415 theater counts. Next weekend should see at least 45,000. 10,393 TC's of new product are shown as incoming for next week. (-1,256) TC's are shown to be marked off here. Take this list shown above, and then see what you can get by eliiminating 7,000 more theater counts minimum to these following movies. (adjust further TC losses for movies shown above if you would rather do the accounting there). Other movies for up to 7,000 TC losses. Insidious 4, The Greatest Showman, Star Wars, Pitch Perfect 3, Darkest Hour, Molly's Game, Ferdinand, Wonder, All the Money in the World. That is 9 movies, 777.77 avg/movie. just write out each of these movies. the current theater counts they have, and try to get rid of 7,000 locations. then add it into the rest above. it can be fun and it is most likely to happen and shows where each movie can be headed from week to week. then use the Jumanji ^^ analysis above to play the films (of interest) out week to week and the impact the film and studio will suffer in the weeks of February but should gain in the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl .

Hostiles takeover of 3,000 theaters next weekend will be bad news for some of the holdovers. Jumanji will probably loose a small chunk just by default of loosing premium screens to 12 Strong. If it holds in 3,700+ places, maybe it is because it is still adding elsewhere. 3,702 is the second most current TC's for Paddington 2, and Jumanji could tie this number for this as most for next weekend. -147 locations for Jumanji If Jumanji retains 70% of its Saturday avg audience on 3702 locations, it might score $5k per location. Jungle Book did 17.1, 18.5 might be maximum, 315.6 total after 5th weekend. J will want to compete with Maze Runner on weekend number 6. I see 90% of its initial 3,765 locations as a solid theater count going against MR3. That would be 3,388.5 locations, and 70% of the previous hot 5k PTA would give it 3.5k PTA for this weekend, Gives a sixth weekend of 11.9 million, 327.5 total. Weekend 7 for J should be good. It should post above 10 against Maze Runner, and then have Super Bowl weekend to post another solid number. Here are th 7th weekends. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/moreweekends.htm?page=7&p=.htm Winchester will probably grab #1 and Jumanji might scratch 9 million more for this weekend in over 3,000 locations taking it to 340. Then weekends #8 and #9 will be heavy http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/ Take 6M for weekend #8 and 4M for weekend #9 as best bet. Add in 10 million for weekdays, Valentines Day, Presidents Day Monday, and Feb 20-22 and the total could be 360. At this point, J is in its 10 weekend and the final weekend for February. Another bombardment of films should bring its theater counts below 1,000 if it was not already. If J is to reach $363,636,636, +10% of that reach would be 400 million.

Yeah, ticket sales averaged in the 200 range per location on Saturday for Commuter, Proud Mary, and 180 range for Insidious, Showman, Star Wars, with The Post amost getting to 290. For comparison, Insidious did about 360 last Friday without previews and 370 on Saturday. Insidious 4's Sunday sold about as many tickets/location avg as the new releases/topperformingholders this weekend.

return of the jedi and revenge of the sith both had small increases from episode 2. (in terms of admissions). Also, you have to rmemeber Jar jar helped with the legs and AOTC filled up alot of seats on OW

Impressive. Going on 3 straight trilogies with similar bumps awaiting the third movie. I wonder what they will cook up for the middle chapter of another trilogy.

you mentioned something about moviepass and Showman legging it too 100M on WOM. I was wondering if there might be a correlation with DH2 and Murder/Express and their performances. and how it all related or not related to MP

The following 30 movies account for 41,741 theater counts this weekend. Marshall, Condorito, Father Figures, Hostiles, Daddy's Home 2, Justice LEague, Thor Ragnarok, Downsizing, Disaster Artist, Call Me By Your Name, Lady Bird, WOnder, All the Money, Ferdinand, Coco, Phantom Thread, Three Billboards, Shape of Water, I TOnya, Molly's Game, Darkest Hour, Pitch Perfect 3, Proud Mary, Paddington, Insidious 3, Greatest Showman, Star Wars, Commuter, The Post, and Jumanji. Historically. the post MLK weekend will see a net increase of a few thousand counts and this next weekend the market will try to accommodate as much as it can. If we get 7,000 + of new theater count product this upcoming weekend, subtracting only 5,000 from the following 30 movies above is probably the most to get rid of. Downsizing and Father Figures really took the hit for everything else to stay in shape. Everything seems to be doing really well. Locations are probably filling up nationwide. Paddington seems to average 6 shows / location and Jumanji still is getting the most. Ferdinand, All the Money in the Wrld, Pitch P 3 could loose 500 - 1,500 next week. Is Phantom Thread expanding? Call Me By Your Name? Three Billboards averaged 71 ppl/theater Monday at 310 locations, expanded to 1,000 and averaged 70 on Monday when it dropped 4.3% after Golden Globes. That suggests the expansion is running smoothly and whatever it looses in some places it will gain in others. I see 3 Billboards gaining more traction like Greatest Showman and Darkest Hour. Might reach 50m. Molly's Game is killing it compared to Miss Sloane. A new writer turned director went smoothly (Transcendence?), it gained locations, and the theorizing over expanding and accommodating market mentioned above suggests it will not loose too many of its theater counts. People are showing up to the biopics with I, Tonya. Might want to look at when The Imitation Game was performing well. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?view=&yr=2016&wknd=04&p=.htm I, Tonya or Phantom Thread might add 500. In fact, at least two movies might add 350 or more counts next weekend. Probably the best way to analyze increases/decreases for next weekend. Just subtract out whatever the 3 wide releases put in next week. 6-7k depending on if you want 12 Strong to have 2 prints per place. and then do not do anything to balance out expansions. make the expansions worth about 1.5k. and you get a probable theater count. With all of this, I bet the most Ferdinand looses is 1,154 next week -1,000 Ferdinand -700 All the Money -300 Wonder -100 Disaster -200 Downsizing -200 Marshall -300 Coco -300 Molly's -200 Darkest -700 Pitch Perfect -500 Insidious -400 Showman -400 Star Wars -5,000

when does Hostiles go wide and how by much?

+7,000 product Den of Thieves - 2500 29 Strong - 2900 Forever My Girl Expansions........ but fine, the market should expand to accompany this. TGS could add some and loose some but it prob won't be the first to go

would MP admissions give theaters incentive to keep showing DH2, Murdrr/Express, Wonder, JL, SW, Showman or Jumanji, or would they rather go after things that benefit them as a local business?

what about Murder on the Orient Express, Wonder, and Daddy's Home 2 versus Justice League?

because there is so much jam packed this weekend.... next weekend sees lots of new product.

Next weekend, TGS should average about $3,000 for 2,500 theaters. 7.5ish

yes, but what about The Dark Knight though?

Proud Mary should hit 10 at least with that Friday and Saturday. TLJ vs Avengers should come down to theater counts. Jumanji could make upwards of 10 million in it's sixth weekend against Maze Runner and potentially take away from audience from Maze Runner since that is supposed to be the only release.

I think Gerard Butler is hitting maybe a bottom line with box office returns to guarantee a minimum of a certain kind of platform release. Example, Miles Teller. box office returns as a solo lead starts from The Spectacular Now (expanded to 770 locations and averaged only about $1,000). Whiplash doubled Spectacular's total with less locations. Divergent branded him for 3 years while taking on Mr. Reed in Fantastic Four. War Dogs got a big release in 2016! In these last 3 films, he took on different roles, and the releases all went wide. Miles Teller Thank You For Your Service - 2,083 - Universal Only the Brave - 2,577 - Sony Bleed for This - 1,549 - Open Road Films War Dogs - 3,258 - WB Allegiant - Liongsate Fantastic Four - 20th Fox Insurgent - Whiplash - Sony Classics Divergent it seems in the market where actors open movies, most actors are making different decisions other than the theatrical platform. maybe this is some kind of booking deal actors get w/ agents etc? Gerard Butler seems to be doing decent with this still, and it seems he has got something going on with the home market too. Bullet to the Head, Escape Plan, and The Last Stand seemed to be the last of some of the action films with particular actors and they have not seemed to want to continue on. If Den of Thieves does horrible, he might transition away from the general action genre. Gerard Butler Den of Thieves Geostorm - 3,246 - WB A Family Man - DTV - Vertical Entertainment London has Fallen - 3,492 - Focus Features Gods of Egypt - 3,117 - Lionsgate/Summit HTTYD 2 - Fox Olympus has Fallen - 3,106 - FilmDistrict Playing for Keeps - 2,840 - FilmDistrict Chasing Mavericks - 2,030 - Fox Coriolanus, Machine Gun Preacher, ... HTTYD - Paramount/Dreamworks The Bounty Hunter - 3,118 - Sony Law Abiding Citizen - 2,890 - Overture Films Gamer - 2,502 - Lionsgate

I think The Post is doing well considering it is about journalism and writing. The Post should pass Spotlight soon....

Rat Race, Mr Beans Holiday

interesting to see how Paddington plays out on a time basis. Pink Panther? Dozen? Jumanji?

I bet Den of Thieves being 140 minutes long will help its OW and legs

they should. The Post already seems to be making 5/3 that of Patriots Day upon expansion. I bet The Post does 13 mil next weekend and 12 Strong goes for first. I think the 'Den of Thieves' movie and the 'Forever My Girl' one will make like 5.5 each.

Jumanji could have a 3-day weekend looking like this 192 people per location avg on Friday would be 3x the Wednesday number which is in line with the 3.3x and 2.7x of films marketed for younger audiences. 350 people per location avg on Saturday would be 3/4 that from last Saturday and would be a 82.3% increase. 258 people per location avg on Sunday would be the number acquired when seeking out 800 people per location for the entire weekend 800(weekend) - 350(Sat) - 192(Fri) = 258 Sun. This would be a 26.3% drop. If Sundays +50% from Friday for Jumanji, and in this scenario, 1.02 million could be add to weekend gross. Maybe last week's 37 million result will want to be duplicated for 4-day. A 10 million Sunday might emerge out of a 28M+ weekend and could lead to 9 for Monday for 37 million 4-day weekend. It could have a fifth weekend of anywhere from 14 - 17.5 million. It could shed approx 350 location counts for 3500 for the weekend and get around $4,500 PTA next weekend. Does anyone know if IMAX and other premium options will be showing anything other than Star Wars and Jumanji next week. Jumanji is in week 4 and it will have to probably shed alot from the sum of it's theater counts with emerging product. The new military movie might get the premiums.

Btw, consider this. Avg ticket price = $8.93 800 people per location for Jumanji 3,849 locations ($8.93)(3,849locations)(800/location) = $27,497,256 Now, if Jumanji does 800.... then I thought Paddington should do 600 with that 100% and all the marketing. I considered Stuart Little 2 15-16. Paddington 2 w/ 600...... ($8.93)(3,702locations)(600/location) = $19,835,316 but Paddington is not even looking at half that. 400 people per location gives 13,223,544 plus previews. A $7,000 PTA for The Post translated to 19.733 for the weekend Taking a rough estimate of 800 people per location for the weekend including previews would give The Post $20,138,936 If Commuter can get it to 500, then 13 million might be possible If Star Wars performs well like Rogue One and does not take a hit from competition, then 13 might be possible. Insidious could Divergent 3 nosedive below 10, but when the timing is right 50% drops happen for 30M opening weekend horror movies.

Sunday saw a drop of 30% for Sing last year. Paddington has that 100%, but I think Shaun the Sheep did too.