dxmatrixdt

never considered I was in a tournament matchup w Tower and got eliminated. still would have prob lost, but my Insidious # was good and if I invested some time to find comparisons with the animated films...

I am moving Paddington to 13.71 for the weekend estimate Paddington - 0.325 + 2.975 (+100%) 5.95 (-25%) 4.4625 = 13.71 Commuter - 0.700 + 3.1 + 4.1 + 3.1 = 11.00 The Post - 0.775 + 5.475 (+4/3) 7.30 + 5.45 = 19.00 Proud Mary - 5 + 6 + 4.2 = 15.2 Showman - 3.2 + 4.8 + 3.2 = 11.2 I had Jumanji at 27.5 in the derby, changed it to 28 last second. in that time, I was supposed to move Proud Mary from 10 to 11. prediction - derby avg Commuter - 14.00 = 72.7% - 11.83 = 92.5% Paddington - 20.00 = 54.1% - 17.85 = 69.8% Proud Mary - 10.00 = 65.8% - 14.69 = 96.6% The Post - 20.00 = 94.7% - 20.88 = 90.1% Jumanji - 28.00 = 98.2% - 26.90 = 97.8% Showman - 11.50 = 97.3% - 10.72 = 95.7% = 81% = 90% Insidious - 12.00 - 11.82 Star Wars - 13.00 - 13.04 Pitch 3 - 5.75 - 5.55 Ferdinand - 3.25 - 4.19

so much for popping on at 11:56 pm to input some predictions

Sleepless did 23/38% on RT and did almost 10M 4-day with 1,800 theaters.

Predicted Mon-Thurs Jumanji - $12,151,568 - 257,757,887 total Star Wars - $7,860,686 - 580,552,232 Insidious - $7,206,903 - 36,788,258 Showman - $6,177,720 - 83,053,043 Pitch P3 - $3,087,994 - 89,143,429 Darkest - $2,847,527 - 30,933,859 Molly's Game- $2,541,621 - 16,614,759 Ferdinand - $2,171,472 - 72,638,363 Coco - $1,995,784 - 193,921,396 Water - $1,809.289 - 23,501,836 Money - $1,459,796 - 21,612,931 Lady Bird - $1,084,031 - 35,212,153 Downsizing - $974,084 - 23,906,513 Wonder - $842,546 - 127,481,278 3 Billboards - $727,232 - 26,120,134 Disaster Artist - $482,345 - 19,914,127 The Post - $462,931 - 4,310,624 Father Figures - $505,983 - 17,278,917 Justice League - $208,158 - 227,240,648 Thor - $197,353 - 312,657,079 Murder - $140,201 - 101,695,845 Daddy's Home 2 - $137,914 - 103,072,909 Phantom Thread - $69,440 - 1,016,630 I, Tonya - 1,200,000 - 6,585,392 Call Me By Your Name - 375,000 - 6,448,058

With this, I was able to subtract 9,000 counts from 15 of the films. Ultimately, there was 15,677 new theater counts going in the same weekend last year. That is over 3,000 more than this year assuming further expansions of Shape of Water and 3 Billboards do not exceed 7,677 counts. Last year had a net gain of 5,095 which means 10,582 counts were eliminated from the previous week. therefore 9,000 going away from this last weekend seems fair. it is more than expected and maybe Pitch Perfect 3 or some others I am predicting will not drop as bad. I will copy + paste my predicts later with updates, plus whatever pops up until then (-100) Jumanji - 3,701 (NEW) Paddington - 3,700 (-1,000) Star Wars - 3,232 (-110) Greatest Showman - 3,232 (+2,900) The Post - 2,936 (NEW) THe COmmuter - 2,900 (-1,153) Pitch Perfect - 2,305 (NEW) Proud Mary - 2,200 (-1,454) - Ferdinand - 1,704 (-100) Darkest Hour - 1,633 (-700) Coco - 1,194 (-1,062) All the $$ - 1,061 (-1,200) Downsizing - 820 (-500) Wonder - 758 (-1,200) Father Figures - 517 (+256) I, Tonya - 512 (+165) 3 Billboards - 465 (-100) Justice League - 318 (-50) Thor - 275 (NEW) (+44) Phantom THread - 50 NO CHANGE Insidious 4 - 3,116 Molly's Game - 1,608 Shape of Water - 804 Lady Bird - 562 Disaster Artist - 478 Call Me By - 117 (-50) Murder - 264 (-150) DH2 - 279

anyone got exact theater counts yet? I'm predicting I, Tonya doubles its 256 to 512. I saw a mention of Phantom Thread hitting 50 which would be (+44) 2,800 for the Post and Commuter which I predict up to 3,000 3,600 for Paddington 2 which I could see hitting the 3,801 Jumanji currently has. 3 Billboards could add half of its 310 next week (+165) Assuming, (+44) Phantom Thread - 50 (+256) I, Tonya - 512 (+165) 3 Biillboards - 475 (+2,800) The Post - 2,836 (+2,800) The Commuter - 2,800 (+3,600) Paddington 2 - 3,600 (+2,200) Proud Mary - 2,200 (+165) Condorito - 165 = 12,030 new 'theater counts' added. I counted 25 movies from this weekend and got 37,615 counts including the 4 films listed above. At least 1,535 counts were not accounted 4. Looking at previous history, a net gain of 5,000 counts seems appropriate. take these 25 movies and their counts, analyze the week number of each film, and if it affects the $8.93 per ticket 3,801 Jumanji 4,232 Star Wars 3,116 Insidious 3,342 SHowman 3,458 Pitch 3 1,733 Darkness 1,608 Molly's 3,158 Ferdinand 1,894 Coco 804 Water 2,123 All the $ 562 - Lady Bird 2,020 DOwnsizing 1,258 WOnder 310 - 3 Billboards 478 - DIsaster 36 - The Post 1,717 - Father 518 - Justice 325 - Thor 314 - Murder 429 - DH2 6 - Phantom THread 256 - I, Tonya 117 - Call Me By = 37,615 counts With the minimal additions coming in for MLK weekend, and a 5,000 count Net Gain, YOU need to subtract 7,030 from 21 of the movies listed above. Perhaps Bad Mom's XMAS might loose a few too, and also you count apply different accounting techniques with the 12,030 new product and the 7,030 in losses to account for approximately a net gain of 5,000 counts over this last weekend while all comparing it to MLK 4 day standard. I think last year sets the bar for that. Monster Trucks + Live By NIght + Bye BYe Man + Silence + Sleepless + Patriots Day. Rogue One hit the same people per location number of '47' that The Last Jedi hit for Monday. Last Jedi should follow this trajectory and do 68 + 47 + 46 for Tuesday, Wednesday, & Thursday. That would put the total at 580,552,232. Jumanji might retain 3,801 counts or even increase like Jungle Book.

2018/01/05 - $413,942 +102% 562 $737 $32,970,033 64 2018/01/06 - $667,668 +61% 562 $1,188 $33,637,701 65 2018/01/07 - $490,421 -27% 562 $873 $34,128,122 66 Lady Bird was up 18.5% over Friday. It should drop around 50% today and average that roughly through the weekdays to gross 1M and surpass 35M total after Thursday. Lady Bird expanded 170 locations this week, and with a new charge of prints coming in, look for Lady Bird to be lucky to retain all 562 location. Perhaps it looses 100 and adds 38 to make 500 crisp locations for MLK weekend. Atonement ended with 50.93

how did Sunday sway?

Challenge - predict top 20 Monday grossers to 3 decimal places.

damn, I scored very well on Insidious but my 30M for Jumanji was too rushed. no research, figured it would be like post Thanksgiving Moama/Coco/HG and but with early January Wed/Thurs to Fri increases being very small. Still, small jumps would have gave Jumanji 10 + 15 + 10, but I rounded down to 30. that means Jumanji grosses roughly 1.5 times that of Star Wars. This may be a good week to accumulate Fandango showings for Tuesday, make a pamphlet, and compare it to cumulative Friday showtimes for exact theaters with Paddington 2. If consistent business moves from Insidious and Jumanji to Paddington, it could open above 30. Monday's drops will be interesting. Moreso will be the depression to Wednesday and Thursday. If Jumanji and Star Wars stay strong, one may want to consider casual audience rather catching up with one of these two with families rather than Paddington, or go to The Commuter/Post with an older crowd.

I could still see Get Out getting left out of the Oscars Best Picture. Same with Showman for picture, Nolan vs Get Out for director, and a bunch of other bullshit. The Florida Project will probably get in for best picture.

How did Neon pull off the win with Supporting Actress for Allison Janney? I didn't see it, but I was wondering about the process in which they win. The ten nominees for comedy/drama/musical almost seem likely to make it to the oscars. Very strong contenders IMHO!

Yeah, but look at how many locations his films were booked in since he became governer. http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=arnoldschwarzenegger.htm&sort=opentheaters&order=DESC&p=.htm 1 9 Terminator: Genisys Par. $89,760,956 3,783 $27,018,486 3,758 7/1/15 2 - Terminator Salvation (Cameo) WB $125,322,469 3,602 $42,558,390 3,530 5/21/09 3 2 Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines WB $150,371,112 3,504 $44,041,440 3,504 7/2/03 4 10 The Expendables 2 LGF $85,028,192 3,355 $28,591,370 3,316 8/17/12 5 - The Expendables LGF $103,068,524 3,398 $34,825,135 3,270 8/13/10 6 17 The Expendables 3 LGF $39,322,544 3,221 $15,879,645 3,221 8/15/14 7 6 Batman and Robin WB $107,325,195 2,942 $42,872,605 2,934 6/20/97 8 27 The Last Stand LGF $12,050,299 2,913 $6,281,433 2,913 1/18/13 9 25 Escape Plan LG/S $25,135,965 2,883 $9,885,732 2,883 10/18/13 10 15 Collateral Damage WB $40,077,257 2,824 $15,058,432 2,824 2/8/02 11 - Around the World in 80 Days (Cameo) BV $24,008,137 2,801 $7,576,132 2,801 6/16/04 12 11 End of Days Uni. $66,889,043 2,652 $20,523,595 2,593 11/24/99 13 23 The 6th Day Sony $34,604,280 2,516 $13,020,883 2,516 11/17/00 14 28 Sabotage (2014) ORF $10,508,518 2,486 $5,272,444 2,486 3/28/14 15 7 Eraser WB $101,295,562 2,556 $24,566,446 2,410 6/21/96 16 12 Jingle All the Way Fox $60,592,389 2,404 $12,112,267 2,401 11/22/96 17 3 True Lies Fox $146,282,411 2,561 $25,869,770 2,368 7/15/94 18 14 Last Action Hero Col. $50,016,394 2,339 $15,338,241 2,306 6/18/93 19 1 Terminator 2: Judgment Day TriS $205,881,154 2,495 $31,765,506 2,274 7/3/91 20 4 Total Recall Sony $119,412,921 2,131 $25,533,700 2,060 6/1/90 21 22 Red Heat TriS $34,994,648 1,892 $8,133,822 1,885 6/17/88 22 8 Kindergarten Cop Uni. $91,457,688 1,937 $7,918,560 1,833 12/22/90 23 20 Junior Uni. $36,763,355 1,896 $9,803,145 1,749 11/23/94 24 26 Raw Deal DEG $16,209,459 1,733 $5,438,978 1,731 6/6/86 25 19 The Running Man TriS $38,122,105 1,694 $8,117,465 1,692 11/13/87 26 13 Predator Fox $59,735,548 1,636 $12,031,638 1,623 6/12/87 27 21 Commando Fox $35,100,000 1,504 $7,700,015 1,495 10/4/85 28 5 Twins Uni. $111,938,388 1,659 $11,174,980 1,396 12/9/88 29 16 Conan the Barbarian Uni. $39,565,475 1,683 $9,603,139 1,395 5/14/82 30 24 Conan the Destroyer Uni. $31,042,035 1,249 $6,958,872 1,117 6/29/84 31 29 Red Sonja MGM $6,948,633 1,091 $2,263,553 1,091 7/5/85 32 18 The Terminator Orion $38,371,200 1,112 $4,020,663 1,005 10/26/84 33 30 Maggie RAtt. $187,112 79 $131,175 79 5/8/15 34 - Scavenger Hunt Fox n/a - n/a - 12/21/79 35 33 Stay Hungry UA n/a - n/a - 4/23/76 36 35 Pumping Iron Cin5 n/a - n/a - 1977 37 31 The Villain Col. n/a - n/a - 7/20/79 38 34 Hercules in New York RAF n/a - n/a - Feb 1970 39 - The Long Goodbye UA n/a - n/a - 3/7/73 Note: Titles in grey are cameo or bit parts and not counted in totals and averages. Lifetime Gross Total (30): $1,884,989,838 Average: $62,832,995 Opening Gross Average (29): $15,751,615 (Wide Releases Only) UPCOMING RELEASES Title (click to view) Studio Release Date Untitled Terminator

4-day MLK next weekend Jumanji - 33.30 - 288.67 total Paddington - 27.50 - 27.50 total The Post - 21.00 - 21.00 Commuter 18.00 - 18.00 Star Wars - 16.00 - 593.50 total Showman - 12.00 - 93.10 total Proud Mary - 10.00 - 10.00 Darkest Hour - 5.00 - 35.04 Ferdinand - 4.50 - 76.47 Coco - 4.50 - 197.74 Pitch Perfect - 6.00 - 95.00 total Insidious - 14.00 - 47.75 total Molly's Game - 4.50 - 19.72 total All the Money - 1.50 - 22.72 total Shape of Water - 2.21 - 24.40 total Phantom Thread?

Jumanji will probably catch up to Jungle Book in the dailies soon

think i scored 85.51%

Jumanji - 10.8 + 16 + 10.2 Insidious - 12.5 + 9.5 5.0 Star Wars - 6.8 + 10 + 6.7 Showman - 4.1 + 5.7 3.2 Pitch P3 - 3.3 + 4.4 + 2.3 Ferdinand - 2.3 + 3.4 + 2.3 Darkest - 1.8 + 2.6 + 1.6 Molly's Game - 2.2 + 2.3 + 1.5 Coco - 1.6 + 2.4 + 1.8 All the Money - 1.0 + 1.5 + 0.9 Shape of Water - 0.789 + 1.111 + 0.75 The Post - 0.500 + 0.65 + 0.45 Phantom Thread - 64k + 90K + 56k Jumanji - 37.0 - $9,734 avg - 245.37 total Insidious - 27.0 - $8,665 avg - 27.00 total Star Wars - 23.5 - $5,553 avg - 572.46 total Showman - 13.0 - $3,890 avg - 76.10 total Pitch Perfect - 10.0 - $2,892 avg - 85.76 total Ferdinand - 8.0 - $2,535 avg - 70.77 total Darkest Hour - 6.0 - $3,462 avg - 28.04 total Molly's Game - 6.0 - $3,731 avg - 13.22 total Coco - 5.80 - $3,062 avg - 192.34 total All the Money - 3.40 - $1,602 avg - 19.98 total Shape of Water - 2.65 - $3,296 avg - 21.20 total The Post - 1.60 - $44,444 avg - 3.75 total Phantom Thread - 0.210 - $35,000 avg - 0.920 total

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Expansions this upcoming weekend could be heavy hitters for theater count losses. Insidious - 3,000 Molly's Game - 1,500 +MORE Jan 12-14th Paddington 3,300 + Proud Mary 2,750 + The Commuter 2,500 Condorito 1,000 The Post 2,000+ +MORE made up estimates

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Good, was hoping for numbers. Hopefully Deadline updates soon. Also hope TLJ stays at #1

damnnn, Jumanji is really drawing walk up crowds. It looks like people showed up after all... Maybe that will help January?

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