The Panda

I still have all of my Pokémon cards. Have some of the originals, but not in good enough condition to sell because I was a kid and didn’t realize you’re supposed to keep your collectibles in slivers and stuff.

I probably had about $1,000 worth of Yugioh cards by the time I was 12 or so (idk if we spent $1,000 but some of them had accrued value) then my mom sold them all for 20 bucks at a garage sale and gave me 5.

Wonder would also be up there, as really nobody predicted that either. Im judging surprising by meaning literally nobody saw it coming. I believe Wonder and Get Out were the only two where nobody predicted that level of a break out.

There Tele’s club for over 400m for WW, there was My IT over Gravity club, plenty of people had 500m predicts for Beauty, That One Guy has a Jumanji over 300m post in the Bold 2017 prediction thread but nobody saw Get Out coming till it happened. So Get Out was definitely the most surprising.

I hope a Wrinkle in Time bombs because The first trailer’s ending line was, “The only thing faster than light... Is the darkness!” Wtf? Dont encourage that nonsense. Good take Han. (Although I think it might go over 100m simply because March competition is light)

I think I’m going to change the weighting to compensate for this. Was thinking 5 points for number 1, 4 for numbers 2-10, 3 for 11-25, 2 for 25-50 and 1 for 51-100

I had over 20 notifications after I posted in the Wednesday thread that TLJ wasn’t a disaster signaling the end of Star Wars, lol.

Merchandising is more than toys, and they’re still making a killing with merchandising, just not TFA levels lol. Not everything has to be record breaking to be good business.

Lol, I’ve responded to this before. Read the articles. Between RO and TLJ Toys R Us (one of the main retailers) went bankrupt and thus shipments obviously went way down (the article is about shipments, as in orders from retailers). Also notice, this decrease happened before TLJ was even release, so it has nothing to do with audience reception of the movie, lol. Add that to the toy industry being on the decline anyways, and that TFA was obviously bigger (and was always going to be bigger) than TLJ. And it’s no duh toy sales are down. They’re down for every franchise.

From what I understand he had to have pitched something in order to get green lighted. Regardless, I think the worst that happens to Johnson’s trilogy is that it gets a bit more oversight from Kennedy to ensure it doesn’t do anything to controversial.

I think a new trilogy also bores well for an International Expansion. It’d be a new story and give people a fresh entry into the franchise.

I do think it’s possible their strategy is to set their service up on a level where them going out of business would directly hurt theaters who are now getting sellouts for their smaller shows because of them. They in turn can bargain for lower ticket price and then slowly up their own price to something like $12-15 a month. It seems a little long-winded and a bit of a gamble, but it’s a possible strategy. Then again, there’s nothing from stopping local theaters from creating competing subscription services on their own (similar to Europe) and then MoviePass is as good as done.

Why would they halt RJ’s trilogy? It’s already been storyboarded, it brings in new characters and new parts of the universe (so new things to merchandise), and if it doesn’t do as well as the other movies they can go back to what they’re doing now. However, a fresh new start for SW is exactly what it’ll need post episode 9. Even talking fan complaints, the majority of those are based around how the movie treats existing characters, his new trilogy would be new characters (and again, something that’d be needed).

TA didn’t gross 2B WW. TFA was also an odd anomaly as no SW movie before it was really a WW smash, they’ve always been big DOM movies. RO and TLJ seem like course corrections.

I don’t necessarily think it’s a great hook, and I think it’s bound to be smaller than RO. But it’ll really depend on reception and how it’s marketed. There’s nothing for audiences between IW and Solo, and then there’s nothing for family audiences between Solo and TI2/JW. That’s more than enough room for Solo to make its money. Youre talking about a fanbase that hated both AOTC and TPM but still showed up in droves for ROTS anyways. It’ll be a hit. It’s just a matter of will it be a 300m hit or 400m hit (or by some odd chance a 500m hit)

If the franchise actually starts to show signs of trouble (like actual signs) you give it a hiatus for a few years then start it back up. Works for Batman, Superman and Spider-Man. I do think franchise fatigue is a real possibility for all of these franchises. There’s some extent of it already when you see no Marvel movie is going back up to TA numbers and no SW movie is going to touch TFA numbers. But you don’t just halt your production because one of your movies grossed 600m instead of 700m lol. Especially when the evidence doesn’t necessarily show that there’s trouble anymore than AoU spelled trouble for the MCU.

You arent recreating the MCU. You’re not releasing 3 SW movies a year, you’re releasing 1 (and if Disney decides to cycle in Avatar now then only 0.66 or so) I think its 4-Day OW will be much closer to 250m than the DOM total. It’s kind of a wildcard but I have a hard time thinking over half of the people who saw RO won’t go see Solo.

That’s the thing, Disney isn’t going to spend 250m per Star Wars movie. 200m per movie and they only need around 500-600m WW gross to maintain a profit (not fsctoring in merchandise). SW is in no danger of falling below that mark within the next few years. If they start producing a lot of real turds, maybe, but even then the Prequels still maintained a very healthy profit.

Lol, we’ll see if it’s a CW, GOTG2 or TR equivalent. I expect it won’t have a hard time clearing 400m though. CW was weird because it was practically an Avengers movie. Solo isn’t really a good comparison because it’s more like one of Marvel’s solo movies like Ragnarok or Guardians.

I don’t know what the franchise will look like then, neither do you. Disney also likely isn’t expecting them to nor do they need them to. SW movies are performing way over the margin they need to be profitable. (And that’s not factoring merchandising into account)

RO had that type of drop-off, TA had a drop off (but it wasn’t nearly as big as TFA so there was less room to drop off). 2B a movie is definitely not sustainable, especially with how the value of the dollar is right now. Actually, if you use TA as a similar model. IM3 (a RO like spinoff) does 400m DOM and 1.2b or so WW? AoU then comes out 2 years later, and does a slightly larger total of 460m and 1.4b or so (didnt check but the numbers are around there). In fact, I believe when I was predicting RO I used IM3 as a model. I just didn’t use AoU as a model for TLJ, which I should have. SW is behaving like that, on a larger scale. Zeitgeist TFA, RO Spin-off drop off, TLJ picks up from RO by a marginal amount. I’ll watch how IW plays and likely use it as a comparison for Episode 9.

I reckon that’s what will happen. You can’t sustain $8 a month subscriptions for movie tickets, not unless you get cut out deals with the theaters or something like that.

Lol, nothing is a disaster for a 600m grosser. Disappointment? Fine. But Disney’s not losing sleep over the future of Star Wars when they’re having no issues clearing the 500m mark with each SW movie made.

I do think Star Wars is going to become more frontloaded as these movies lose some of their event status. Rogue One’s legs were much smaller than TFA’s with a 155m OW (and not a massive 220m OW that burned off a lot demand), and TLJ followed suit with lower legs than that (However a much larger OW). You see the same trend with the Marvel movies where legs for the ‘big’ openers kept diminishing (despite reception) as the franchise became more frontloaded. With TA having the best, then IM3, then AoU and then CW. And then the lower opening ‘spin-offs’ or solo movies had the mid-range legs around the 2.5x-2.8x range. Take away the inflated holiday legs and TFA’s multi would likely be around 3.1-3.2x or so, RO would be around 2.6-8x, TLJ’s would be around 2.2x-2.3x. I reckon Solo, with good reception, will have around a 2.5-2.7x multi (Deadpool 2 right after is the only issue). I reckon Episode 9 has a multi similar to TLJ, maybe if it’s lighter and more crowd pleasing somewhat higher (maybe right at 3x)

Quoted, IW should be around AoU adjusted