Elessar

maybe

Unless something unprecedented happens on SAT and SUN i think there's consensus that R1 is pretty much toast.

What are you trying to say here?

I'm pretty sure it's better than a regular weekend due to most people having off on FRI (acts like a SAT) and MON (which inflates SUN evening). But in any case it seems to be better than when Jan 1st falls on SAT, like what was the case during NWH's run. There must be a reason why movies fell much less in the beginning of 2022. Or maybe all movies in the top 10 had just better legs? I dunno.

Again, NWH had unusually good holds post holidays. It was more of an outlier for a comic book movie. There's no guarantee A2 will do the same or better. I'm pretty sure it'll do better than R1, though.

I noticed that movies on the whole dropped much harder on post holiday weekend in 2017 (R1) than during 2022 (NWH). That would suggest that this weekend (with Jan 1st falling on SUN) is more inflated than during other years. Just something to keep in mind. Nonetheless, NWH did very well if not incredibly well post holidays but who's to say Avatar 2 will do the same or better even? Time will tell.

Well, the first few days after OW weren't exactly brilliant but after Sunday it is continually outperforming Rogue One which is why i have been thinking it should outdo it in the end but i haven't quite been on the $600m train yet. Has Rogue One performed that badly after Holidays? Just looking at the weekend drops, its only drop over 50% (for a long while) was right after new year. Sure it might not have been anything to write home about but awful i think it was not.

If it increases this weekend i'll start to believe in $600m.

I believe it's not that unusual for movies to increase on the last weekend of the year overseas with the same calendar setup.

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 $14,403,438 (theaters 4,202) (YD -21% / LW -) total $183,049,646 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 $14,632,040 (theaters 4,202) (YD +2% / LW -) total $197,681,686 8 / Dec 23 Fri $22,860,256 (theaters 4,157) (YD +36% / LW -68%) total $244,859,930 $19,289,141 (theaters 4,202) (YD +32% / LW -64%) total $216,970,827 9 / Dec 24 Sat $15,308,508 (theaters 4,157) (YD -33% / LW -67%) total $260,168,438 $14,869,288 (theaters 4,202) (YD -23% / LW -66%) total $231,840,115 10 / Dec 25 Sun $25,865,004 (theaters 4,157) (YD +69% / LW -31%) total $286,033,442 $29,179,791 (theaters 4,202) (YD +96% / LW -20%) total $261,019,906 11 / Dec 26 Mon $32,085,637 (theaters 4,157) (YD +24% / LW +82%) total $318,119,079 $32,270,430 (theaters 4,202) (YD +11% / LW +99%) total $293,290,336 12 / Dec 27 Tue $22,515,612 (theaters 4,157) (YD -30% / LW +28%) total $340,634,691 $24,128,503 (theaters 4,202) (YD -25% / LW +32%) total $317,418,839 13 / Dec 28 Wed $18,021,482 (theaters 4,157) (YD -20% / LW +20%) total $358,656,173 $20,582,014 (theaters 4,202) (YD -15% / LW +43%) total $338,000,853 14 / Dec 29 Thu $16,722,532 (theaters 4,157) (YD -7% / LW n/c) total $375,378,705 $20,117,061 (theaters 4,202) (YD -2% / LW +37%) total $358,117,914

I would disagree. Right now, $600m seems the upper range of where it will land. Like i said, unless it does some crazy increase this weekend and drops less than 30% next couple weeks.

Only if it increases this weekend and drops like less than 30% next week. Good luck!

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 $14,403,438 (theaters 4,202) (YD -21% / LW -) total $183,049,646 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 $14,632,040 (theaters 4,202) (YD +2% / LW -) total $197,681,686 8 / Dec 23 Fri $22,860,256 (theaters 4,157) (YD +36% / LW -68%) total $244,859,930 $19,289,141 (theaters 4,202) (YD +32% / LW -64%) total $216,970,827 9 / Dec 24 Sat $15,308,508 (theaters 4,157) (YD -33% / LW -67%) total $260,168,438 $14,869,288 (theaters 4,202) (YD -23% / LW -66%) total $231,840,115 10 / Dec 25 Sun $25,865,004 (theaters 4,157) (YD +69% / LW -31%) total $286,033,442 $29,179,791 (theaters 4,202) (YD +96% / LW -20%) total $261,019,906 11 / Dec 26 Mon $32,085,637 (theaters 4,157) (YD +24% / LW +82%) total $318,119,079 $32,270,430 (theaters 4,202) (YD +11% / LW +99%) total $293,290,336 12 / Dec 27 Tue $22,515,612 (theaters 4,157) (YD -30% / LW +28%) total $340,634,691 $24,128,503 (theaters 4,202) (YD -25% / LW +32%) total $317,418,839 13 / Dec 28 Wed $18,021,482 (theaters 4,157) (YD -20% / LW +20%) total $358,656,173 $20,582,014 (theaters 4,202) (YD -15% / LW +43%) total $338,000,853

China growth is probably the main reason for all those 1b+ movies.

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 $14,403,438 (theaters 4,202) (YD -21% / LW -) total $183,049,646 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 $14,632,040 (theaters 4,202) (YD +2% / LW -) total $197,681,686 8 / Dec 23 Fri $22,860,256 (theaters 4,157) (YD +36% / LW -68%) total $244,859,930 $19,289,141 (theaters 4,202) (YD +32% / LW -64%) total $216,970,827 9 / Dec 24 Sat $15,308,508 (theaters 4,157) (YD -33% / LW -67%) total $260,168,438 $14,869,288 (theaters 4,202) (YD -23% / LW -66%) total $231,840,115 10 / Dec 25 Sun $25,865,004 (theaters 4,157) (YD +69% / LW -31%) total $286,033,442 $29,179,791 (theaters 4,202) (YD +96% / LW -20%) total $261,019,906 11 / Dec 26 Mon $32,085,637 (theaters 4,157) (YD +24% / LW +82%) total $318,119,079 $32,270,430 (theaters 4,202) (YD +11% / LW +99%) total $293,290,336 12 / Dec 27 Tue $22,515,612 (theaters 4,157) (YD -30% / LW +28%) total $340,634,691 $24,128,503 (theaters 4,202) (YD -25% / LW +32%) total $317,418,839

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 $14,403,438 (theaters 4,202) (YD -21% / LW -) total $183,049,646 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 $14,632,040 (theaters 4,202) (YD +2% / LW -) total $197,681,686 8 / Dec 23 Fri $22,860,256 (theaters 4,157) (YD +36% / LW -68%) total $244,859,930 $19,289,141 (theaters 4,202) (YD +32% / LW -64%) total $216,970,827 9 / Dec 24 Sat $15,308,508 (theaters 4,157) (YD -33% / LW -67%) total $260,168,438 $14,869,288 (theaters 4,202) (YD -23% / LW -66%) total $231,840,115 10 / Dec 25 Sun $25,865,004 (theaters 4,157) (YD +69% / LW -31%) total $286,033,442 $29,179,791 (theaters 4,202) (YD +96% / LW -20%) total $261,019,906 11 / Dec 26 Mon $32,085,637 (theaters 4,157) (YD +24% / LW +82%) total $318,119,079 $32,270,430 (theaters 4,202) (YD +11% / LW +99%) total $293,290,336

Hope you are right.

So, if Avatar 2 is to reach 600m DOM it needs to first make up about $24m to catch up to Rogue One and then outgross it by another $67m, that's over $90m all in all, no chump change. Personally, at this point, i have some doubts that it is going to do that. So far, it is losing some days and winning other days, showing no signs of clear legs advantage. And the longer it takes the more difficult it gets because grosses get smaller and smaller. The next few days will be crucial...

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 $14,403,438 (theaters 4,202) (YD -21% / LW -) total $183,049,646 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 $14,632,040 (theaters 4,202) (YD +2% / LW -) total $197,681,686 8 / Dec 23 Fri $22,860,256 (theaters 4,157) (YD +36% / LW -68%) total $244,859,930 est. $19,500,000 (theaters 4,202) (YD +33% / LW -63%) total $217,181,686 9 / Dec 24 Sat $15,308,508 (theaters 4,157) (YD -33% / LW -67%) total $260,168,438 est. $15,000,000 (theaters 4,202) (YD -23% / LW -66%) total $232,181,686 10 / Dec 25 Sun $25,865,004 (theaters 4,157) (YD +69% / LW -31%) total $286,033,442 est. $29,500,000 (theaters 4,202) (YD +97% / LW -19%) total $261,681,686

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 $14,403,438 (theaters 4,202) (YD -21% / LW -) total $183,049,646 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 $14,632,040 (theaters 4,202) (YD +2% / LW -) total $197,681,686 8 / Dec 23 Fri $22,860,256 (theaters 4,157) (YD +36% / LW -68%) total $244,859,930 est. $19,500,000 (theaters 4,202) (YD +33% / LW -63%) total $217,181,686 9 / Dec 24 Sat $15,308,508 (theaters 4,157) (YD -33% / LW -67%) total $260,168,438 est. $15,000,000 (theaters 4,202) (YD -23% / LW -66%) total $232,181,686 10 / Dec 25 Sun $25,865,004 (theaters 4,157) (YD +69% / LW -31%) total $286,033,442 est. $29,500,000 (theaters 4,202) (YD +97% / LW -19%) total $261,681,686

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 $14,403,438 (theaters 4,202) (YD -21% / LW -) total $183,049,646 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 - 8 / Dec 23 Fri - -

body { color: black; } red { color: red; } blue { color: blue; } grey { color: grey; } Day / Date Rogue One Avatar Way of Water 0 / Dec 15 Thu $29,000,000 total $29,000,000 $17,000,000 total $17,000,000 1 / Dec 16 Fri $71,094,394 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $71,094,394 $53,200,270 (theaters 4,202) (YD - / LW -) total $53,200,270 2 / Dec 17 Sat $46,308,115 (theaters 4,157) (YD -35% / LW -) total $117,402,509 $44,327,887 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $97,528,157 3 / Dec 18 Sun $37,679,172 (theaters 4,157) (YD -19% / LW -) total $155,081,681 $36,572,069 (theaters 4,202) (YD -17% / LW -) total $134,100,226 4 / Dec 19 Mon $17,596,150 (theaters 4,157) (YD -53% / LW -) total $172,677,831 $16,257,078 (theaters 4,202) (YD -56% / LW -) total $150,357,304 5 / Dec 20 Tue $17,582,978 (theaters 4,157) (YD - / LW -) total $190,260,809 $18,288,904 (theaters 4,202) (YD +12% / LW -) total $168,646,208 6 / Dec 21 Wed $14,965,790 (theaters 4,157) (YD -15% / LW -) total $205,226,599 - 7 / Dec 22 Thu $16,773,075 (theaters 4,157) (YD +12% / LW -) total $221,999,674 - 8 / Dec 23 Fri - -

Similar thing happened during the original's run. I remember people being rather disappointed by the UK opening. In the end it finished with a record gross, behind Germany and France (and China of course).

France and Korea are duking it out...

Nerd.