BadAtGender

It's already declining. It hit a peak in 2010 and is slightly below that mark. There's nothing to indicate this trend will change. Besides that, the population is aging, which will probably mean a relative decrease in movie-going, per capita. (Though Japan is already not an especially movie-going country.) And even though there was the ticket price hike earlier this year, it seems like there's a lot of resistance to increased ticket prices, which prevents inflation from causing future movies to gross more. So, unless there is another huge outlier like Frozen, it doesn't seem likely that any film will cross the 20b threshold again. I suppose if Miyazaki comes out of retirement and does something that really captures the public conscience that could do it, but outside of that... Of course, it's entirely possible a film could gross more than $200m in the future, despite the population trends. If the dollar gets especially weak, a lower Japanese gross could lead to hitting that mark. Avatar 2, for instance, could get something around the gross of the first and possibly do it, depending on the exchange rate.

I think he indicated a couple months ago that we may not see anything pass 20b again this decade, or possibly ever. Frozen could be the last.

Drive is okay. Only God Forgives is a load of crap, though. In any case, I wonder if Hercules will retain a higher (and Fresh!) RT score than Lucy. Kinda surprised it's managed that so far.

1) Will any film make more than 25 mill? YES 2) Will Hercules make more than RIPD (OW)? YES 3) Will Fluffy movie break into the top 15? YES 4) What will have the best per theater average out of these four films: Happy Christmas, Magic in The Moonlight, A Most Wanted Man, Very Good Girls. 5) Will And So It goes make more opening weekend than Lucy does OD? NO 6) Will Hercules drop on Saturday? YES 7) Will Transformers fall more than 40%? YES 8) Will Apes make more than 20 mill? YES 9) Will Sex Tape drop more than 53%? NO 10) Will Planes have a Saturday increase of more than 57%? NO 11) Will Purge fall more than 63%? NO 12) Will Maleficent make more than HTTYD2? NO 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 4 The Purge: Anarchy 9 Transformers: Age of Extinction 12 How to Train Your Dragon 2 14 Earth to Echo 16 Begin Again 2000 each bonus of 4000 if all correct Bonus 1: What will Transformers be at WW? 5000 983.845 Bonus 2: What will Apes be at WW? 5000 350.845 Bonus 3: What will the combined weekend gross be for 22JS, HTTYD2 and Tammy? 5000 10.987

Disney has the data. They don't need to demand anything.

Isn't it a bit soon to call that, since Step Up: All In hasn't been released, yet? I mean, it's not LIKELY to throw under Dorothy, but there's a chance.

Heh. Even if I've been doing pretty good the past few weeks, I don't think I'll crack the top 12.

That depends entirely on how it screws us over on an individual basis.

No. There are sites in Japanese that post the daily admissions for various chains, which some members here have used to extrapolate the full day's gross.

Huh. I think I had a critical misunderstanding of SOTM3. I read it as there being only one possible correct answer. Had I known anything below would have scored, I'd probably have chosen a lower number. Ah, well.

Huh. Tied for second for the week. And my first bonus.

Yeah, pretty much. Although the shenanigans that went on with C&A were pretty epic. (There are several series that have been done with the film or TV rights sales in mind, with really lazy art, but that's not quite the same thing.)

God, Cowboys and Aliens. Had a comic made (and sales fudged) for the express purpose of getting the movie rights sold.

Well, a two dollar theater, but yes. If it weren't a $7 round trip busride to get there, I'd probably go more often. It was kinda cool to do, in a nostalgic way.

So, for your consideration, here is a list of films with a budget of at least $100m that failed to reach that mark domestically: John CarterThe Lone RangerBattleshipJack the Giant SlayerThe Golden Compass47 RoninEdge of TomorrowCowboys & AliensSaharaPoseidonAlexanderKingdom of HeavenMars Needs MomsRIPDStealthThe Adventures of Pluto NashThe AlamoFinal Fantasy: The Spirits WithinTreasure PlanetWindtalkersThe WolfmanXXX: State of the UnionHugoHow Do You KnowAround the World in 80 DaysSpeed RacerPeter PanK-19: The WidowmakerLand of the LostAli It's possibly not complete.

Yeah, while it's not a perfect comparison, look at how much WB pushed The Lego Movie. Since it had a discount theater expansion in May, it's earned nearly $4m. Godizlla won't do that much, but it'll get past $200m easily. Edge of Tomorrow might be a closer shot, but it should also get to $100m.

I must have missed people saying that.

Flowers for the Planet of the Apes (I wonder if anyone will get the reference.)

I don't see how Apes earning more would suddenly mean that Maleficent didn't do well.

BKB's opinions about movies aren't the problem with him.

It grossed over $200m in a single territory.

To be correct, nobody expected it to be huge. It only carries a $50m budget, so only needs modest returns WW to turn a profit. The first earned ~$210m WW, (about $10m in Japan). And really anything it does north of $150m will be a success. Also, it's not from either Pixar or WDAS, but rather from DisneyToons, which had historically done the direct-to-video sequels to bigger Disney hits, but more recently mostly does the Tinkerbell films. It's worth remembering, though, that while Pixar has a long history of success in Japan, before Frozen, the biggest WDAS film was Dinosaur, which earned under $50m. WiR did under $30m and Tangled around $31m. Bolt did $16m. Meet the Robinsons and The Princess and the Frog didn't even get to $10m.

Seems weird to go by that, especially because you could get a list like: The Adventures of Pluto Nash John Carter Battleship The Lone Ranger Stealth etc. etc. etc. I mean they all cost a ton, but they earned shit, so could hardly be called blockbusters. But, hey, if $200m is your cutoff point: 1. Frozen2. The Incredibles3. Lilo & Stitch4. Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl5. Monsters, Inc. 6. Spirited Away7. Up8. Gravity9. Wall-E10. Inception11. Brave 12. Tangled 13. National Treasure14. Avatar15. Kung Fu Panda

Interesting. That's the first I've heard of this. While I don't doubt it, can anyone confirm?

Yes, well, I only looked at gross over $100m... and I did include an extra 10 if someone decides a few aren't worthy and needs to slot things up. Hrm. I should have put Spirited Away in there.