BadAtGender

You realize I've actually won the game before

My attention was really diverted during the winter game, and I don't think that's going to change significantly over the summer. My job really takes it out of me, such that doing the whole prediction rigamarole is a chore. And I apparently have a tendency to forget to do the weeklies at all. We'll see. But I just get beyond the top five or so in any of the prediction sections and just sigh.

Well, I'm definitely not getting in Week 0. Still dunno about week 1. I started doing the pre-seasons and just couldn't muster enough energy to really dig into it.

It is, but it might not be for Animated Feature. The Academy tends to go for the film that grossed the most domestically. So when BH6 got the win over HTTYD2, was it because the latter was a sequel or because BH6 was more successful? Same with DM2 and Frozen. (Although, if DM2 had won... yeesh!) 2011 is a possible example year in your favor. KFP2 was the highest grossing animated feature of the year, but Rango won the award. However, it was a notably weak year for animation, with nothing from Pixar, and I think only Winnie the Pooh from WDAS, which wasn't nominated. 2010, however, TS3 did win, but it was also the highest grossing of the films. (In fact, it was the highest of the year overall.) If we're limiting ourselves to Pixar comparisons, we've got TS3 and Dory which provide contrasting data points. They're both sequels to beloved films, both had a long time since the previous film, and both did gonzo business. One got a nomination and the win, but the other didn't. (Neither Cars 2 or 3 got nominations, but neither was following something beloved or had a long delay before appearing... or did amazing business.) One point that separates Dory from TS3: previous wins by the series. Nemo won in '03, but the first two TS films were released before the BAF happened. So perhaps there was an "award the series" sort of thing going on, too. I dunno. IAC, The Incredibles did win in '04 (ahead of sequel Shrek 2, so... maybe? But that was also following a film that had won, so... hmm.) It's likely they both WOULD have won if it had happened. TS1 would have faced off against Pocahontas, and, uh... A Goofy Movie or Balto? Yow. It's probably a good thing the BAF oscar didn't happen in the mid-90s, because it would have been Disney and Pixar and whatever else managed to get a halfway pathetic theatrical run. '99 would have been more interesting, though. TS2 would have been the odds-on favorite to win, but Tarzan was seen as something of a resurgence for WDAS. South Park also happened, that year, and remains arguably the best combination of critical and box office success for an adult animation. Then there's The Iron Giant, to which there is no end to the deserved praise. And, of course, because of the incredibly long time it took Miramax to release, Princess Mononoke had its US release that year. Seriously, that's one hell of a line-up, assuming all five could have gotten in. Odd tangent aside, though, I think it remains that the data points we have are inconclusive. I'll agree that Incredibles 2 is by no means a shoe-in to win, but as yet there doesn't seem to be a strong alternative.

I think Dory missing was less to do with the sequel nature and more to do with the fact that WDAS had the brutal combo of Zootopia and Moana to go up against. 2016 was just a harsh, harsh year for the competition, and something like Dory which was very well crafted and enjoyable, but didn't have anything to really make it stand out, just fell a bit below the mark. If Dory was the Pixar entry for either 2015 or 2017, it would have pretty easily been nominated and been the likely favorite to win. (Conversely, if Coco or Inside Out ended up in 2016 instead, they'd probably knock something else off. Moana or The Red Turtle, probably.) Projecting 2018 is difficult because we don't know how much of 2017's slate was because of the weaker competition and how much was because of the rules change.

What if, just hypothetically, we took a season of a mecha anime, and then condensed it down into two hours? No, it doesn't matter which mecha anime. Really, just pick one. Or pick them all. It REALLY doesn't matter, because, what you'll find by putting 13 odd hours of TV into fast forward so you can see it in two, that you'll only get the broad strokes, the tropes, and the big action sequences, with little else. That's Pacific Rim: Uprising, in a nutshell. This isn't a criticism, mind, or praise. It is what it is. And while the process to create the film was unlikely to be an attempt to answer the above question, it exists as an answer just the same. And that's probably not a question that really needed an answer, but there are budgetary needs to tell certain types of stories, such as giant robots going rock-em-sock-em on giant monsters, and the only venue to tell said stories is in two hour films that cost roughly $1m-$2m a minute to make. So we're left with a film that's passably enjoyable, but ultimately unmemorable. It's got a few thrills, a few laughs, some nice action sequences and staging, but in the end there's little about it that says "watch me again" or even "remember me at the end of the year. It's interesting to consider it contrast to the first Pacific Rim, because despite the fact that Uprising is a sequel, the films feel very different. The first film was delightfully engaging, earnest in its love for the source inspirations, and really lovingly crafted to be a visual experience. It was cheesy as hell, but the way it was presented invited audiences along for the ride. Uprising is also cheesy, and also pretty earnest, but it seems to miss much of what made the first film really work. It's still fun, but in a more distant way. And it seems preoccupied with throwing so much at the viewer, to buy into the "Bigger is Better" mantra, that it loses sight of the smaller, quieter moments that flesh out the characters to make them really engaging. Without the sparring session between Raleigh and Mako, we don't care enough about them later. If we don't get to see Ron Perlman's delightful Hannibal Chau, we don't get a real sense for the depth of the world and society that exists in it. Those little things make the entire movie, as ridiculous as it is, feel more real. The second film lacks those moments, and so it feels like a veneer, rather than a fully actualized thing. And so, in our hypothetical high speed mecha anime, it jumps from major story beat to major story beat with little time to rest, and leaves the viewer little time to digest what is happening and to feel for the characters. In a sense, Uprising seems to fall prey to what plagues many big budget productions. It's a film that wants all the payoff without working on the setup. And worse, it's relying on another film to deliver that setup. Despite having very few characters reappear from the first, there is little about this film that would make sense to a neophyte viewer. It might still be enjoyable, but it would also be largely incomprehensible. Mostly, it seems to indicate how difficult it is to pull something like this off. The first Pacific Rim might be flawed, but it worked in so many ways to really click with some people. And the recent spate of superhero films that have drawn in big audiences, Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok, and Black Panther, all managed a similar earnestness that seems effortless but is apparently very difficult to pull off. If you miss just a little, you might come off as flat, insincere, or just not quite right. So what we're left with is a movie that definitely isn't great, but it probably wasn't reaching for great in the first place, but it's not bad, either. It's a fun way to spend a couple hours, to munch on some popcorn or to wind down after the buzz from a few birthday cocktails. 3/5

Personally, I think it'd be pretty cool for the game to start after Infinity War opens. Removing that as an obvious upper tier choice makes it more challenging and interesting.

Well, it's probably good that I fell asleep before going through the entire thread

I know that's likely happening this weekend, but do we have a confirmation post? (I'm on mobile, but I can update things for the next few)

I'm really not sure if I'll take part. My new work schedule is tough and pretty exhausting. Hence why I forgot so many times in the winter game.

I think part of it is that TTG has had a growing popularity over time. When it was released, it was appearing after the much loved, but canceled (though soon to be revived) Young Justice, and the overly comedic styling was seen as something of an affront. In addition, while it spun off of the popular Teen Titans cartoon, it wasn't quite the same. So it basically had two groups (that did cross over) who weren't inclined to be charitable to it. Still, it was popular with kids, and it survived. And it's turned out that they make some funny, smart, quality episodes with it, and so more recently you're seeing people voice support for it. Arguably, this is a good time to get a movie out, because it's hitting when the iron is hot, so to speak. That is COMPLETELY different than MLP, which started off like a rocket, and basically was loved all around from the get-go. It also arose during a prosperous period that tied into a peak for webcomics and a growth boom for when fandom found Tumblr. The criticism that arises from it is much more a case of toxic fandom rather than any issues with the show itself. The disappointment of the movie probably has more to do with it being too late to really capitalize on the popularity. The show premiered in 2010 and the movie was in 2017, which means that if it had an initial target audience of, say, 5-7 year old girls, those original fans would then be 12-14, and probably not wanting to continue with it.

Well, I pretty much loved that. I can get why it's not for everyone. Even if there's nothing I would call a weakness, DuVernay does have an idiosyncratic directing style that is not something seen normally in a big budget production. In some ways, it reminded me of Aronofsky's Noah in how off kilter it was. But it pretty much pushed all of my buttons in just the right way: It's got some really high concept ideas that it explores pretty fully, but doesn't over-explain. It's got a very assured way of conveying the story. It's got some amazing visual sequences. And it's got Gugu Mbatha-Raw and Chris Pine, who I basically love in everything. I've read the novel, but it wasn't one I invested in strongly as a kid. I think it was only in the past year or two that I finally sat down and read it through. I find it interesting that the movie did update a few things, setting and character-wise, but basically remained true to the philosophical ideas presented. The science in Wrinkle in Time isn't our own, although L'Engle developed a science that was internally consistent. In a way, this does reflect the thinking of the time, which had some ideas which wouldn't be viewed as science later, and perhaps makes it seem as a bit hippy-dippy. However, read now it comes across as an inherently optimistic that love is a force with a measurable effect, that personal connections can cross the universe and affect great change. This is a film that rests on its sincerity. It's honest about what it is, without being sarcastic or cutesy or twee. I've got to say, I really dig that. 5/5

WB seems to be willing to entertain multiple ideas and to let those that gel the best move forward. So we've got several potential films for Harley Quinn, of which not all of them will work out. Since it seems they're taking a less continuity-heavy approach, that's fine, really. For Sirens, I think Ayer has mostly moved on. I believe he's working on a sequel to Bright, which was critically lambasted, but did well for Netflix. The sequel isn't going to have Landis doing the screenplay, at least. If he's completely gone from the DC world, then Sirens would need a new creative team to shepherd it, which may take some time.

AFAIK he isn't doing anything hands-on with any of the DC movies going forward. He might remain as a producer for some time, but that doesn't indicate direct involvement.

It's probably playing young.

That would be a bad idea. They need to make a film that stands on its own, not one that exists to setup some hypothetical future film. They can do the full arc of Cheetah in this film. For example: set the first act in the past, show Diana (in her archeological researcher guise) and Minerva meet and become friends on some sort of expedition. At the capstone of the act, something goes horribly wrong and Minerva is turned into Cheetah, though from Diana's perspective, Minerva dies. Cut to the present for the second and third acts, where Minerva returns, vowing revenge on Diana. You get the superheroics and action, but you also establish a personal connection between the characters which will make for a much better movie.

That's bad enough I probably should have stopped the second time I forgot to do a week. SOTMs doomed me. I doubt my predicts will alter things significantly. Maybe put me ahead of @Telehilation, but that's about all I can hope for.

Missing both 7 and 6 has really hurt me.

Part A: 1. Will Death Wish and Red Sparrow combine to more than $30M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Death Wish and Red Sparrow combine to more than $40M? 2000 No 3. Will Death Wish and Red Sparrow combine to more than $35M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Black Panther make more than $24M on Saturday? 4000 Yes 5. Will Jumanji make more than 900k every day? 5000 No 6. Will 15:17 drop more than 58%? 1000 No 7. Will at least 3 Oscar nominated films increase? 2000 Yes 8. Which film will be the highest grossing film this weekend that wins an Oscar? 3000 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9. Will Game Night drop more than 34% on Sunday? 4000 Yes 10. Will Early Man stay in the top 12? 5000 No 11. Will Peter Rabbit explode and destroy the universe? 1000 Rabbits don't lay eggs 12. Will Greatest Showman have a PTA above $1800? 2000 No 13. Will The Post have a better Sunday than Friday? 3000 No 14. Will the top three combine to more than $100M? 4000 Yes 15. Will I make it to March? 5000 Buddy, you've already made it Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: Nope Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 3. Red Sparrow 4. Game Night 6. Annihilation 8. Fifty Shades Freed 10. The 15:17 to Paris 13. The Shape of Water Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Part A: 1. Will Death Wish Open to more than $15M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Death Wish Open to more than $18M? 2000 Yes 3. Will Red Sparrow make more than $15M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Red Sparrow make more than $18M? 4000 No 5. Will Red Sparrow open at number 2? 5000 No 6. Will Black Panther make more than $65M? 1000 Yes 7. Will Game Night make more than $10M? 2000 Yes 8. Will Peter Rabbit stay above Annihilation? 3000 Yes 9. Will Fifty Shades drop more than 62%? 4000 No 10. Will 15:17 stay above Every Day? 5000 Yes 11. Will Jumanji fall more than 30%? 1000 No 12. Will Game Night have a PTA above $2,350? 2000 Yes 13. Will Three BIllboards finish above the Post AND Shape of Water? 3000 Yes 14. Will Suicide Squad repeat at the Oscars because it is just that great? 4000 That's the DOUBLE Oscar Winning Suicide Squad to you. 15. Will we ever survive until summer? 5000 Maybe I won't forget for several weeks during the summer Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Red Sparrow make for its 3 day? $18.64m 2. What will Fifty Shades' change be? -59.3% 3. What will Annihilation's PTA be for the Weekend? $3,001 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Death Wish 5. Peter Rabbit 7. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle 9. The Greatest Showman 11. Every Day 12. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000

Week 20 - Friday

I'm semi-pleased with my position since I've missed three (?) weeks and an SOTM.

It has what for big blockbuster numbers?

While there is finally an MCU film that I'm willing to call "better" than Thor, it remains my favorite. It's a film that I like more each time I watch it. 5/5