pepsa

Specialy because it's OW wasn't terrible. Because this movie is having much better legs in a lot of markets compared to DOM. Australia is at 4x multi from it's 4-day OW after 3 weekends. Argentina is also over a 4x multi after 3 weekend over the 4 day-OW. That would be on par with Korea so far that's also at a 4x over it's 5-day OW after 3 weekends. But as said SK opening wasn't terrible so it's doing great even at a macro level.

It 100% has the WOM for it, if it were an empty summer I would say a 100%. But for now it's an uncertainty untill we the hold vs MI7. And what to me is more scrary is if oppenheimer and barbie manage (and are likely to get) respectable opening the week after that might really hit its showcounts hard. Because obviously by MI7 release Elemental will be the clear nr 1 movie by far over all the other release. But the second week of MI7 should be quite a bit bigger than this week of Elemental, so going in to the Barbenheimer weekend it would be the distant nr 2 and probably only 4th for the weekend. Still if any movie can survive this it's a movie that increases 3 weeks in a row. EDIT: Oppenheimer isn't releasing day and date with the US, meaning that 1.5m opener less to deal with. So like Jimbo says there is no reason to believe that as long as this movie has enough showtimes it will hold amazingly.

Jesus it's at 34k CGV at 17:20, I mean at worst it gets to 41k today, only matching tuesdays evening. More likely we see 42-44k though. So using 42k and a 0.42 - 0.43 % cgv ratio gets us 97.7k - 100k. I mean I know 100k isn't a 110k but it's god damm close.

Maybe Wednesday is the best weekday for movies if they don't lose a lot of showtimes to big openers, because if we look at Elemental first week, wednesday was also the biggest day of the week, dropping on thursday. If we see that repeat this week that might be something to keep in mind for the future Also maybe there is a slight discount in some places explaining the lower ATP you noticed?

It will be the biggest pixar movie in SK with a multi of around 12x it's 5-day opening weekend. So atleast in SK it will be seen as top tier Pixar by the GA. In counrties like Argentina it is also looking at a 10x multi of the 4-day OW. It is a movie that is atleast clicking with the GA in some countries. Big legs everywhere but it also had a very small OW in a lot of countries, and in that case I agree that insane multies are needed to say it's seen as top tier pixar.

I will keep an eye on that ATP next wednesday as well. OD ATP is always inflated. However it's normal that ATP goes down week to week: for exampple atp this monday was lower than the week before, same will probably be true on thursday en friday.

I mean we can always dream ofcourse!

Last 2 MI movies did face massive lockal breakout movies otherwise they woud have been significantly more leggy than the last 2 showed. MI 6 had a 12.7m admission movie opening the week after it's opening, so you can understand legs being cut heavily. PS is running behind 45k on thor 4, that movie opened to 1.76m. I think MI7 will match ps in the end and MI7 will have a much better ps multi obviously, still doing 2x what Thor4 did with same PS might be a hard task. I would hold off the 4m OW untill we PS ramp up to close to 700k or so. Last movie debuted in 2018, movies have become a lot more PS dependant. To get an idea let's look at spidey, FFH had 221k PS before opening to a 4.5m 6-day debute. Spiderman NWH had 742k presales and opened to 2.77k (that said on the weekend cinema's did have to close at 7pm so it would probably have gotten an opening of 3.8m or so. MI6 ended PS at 363k and opened to 3.3m. The point is movies are a lot more PS heavy now. With 450-500k it won't open to 4m.

Today we start at 12k CGV, up 1 from yesterday so an other increase should be doable. Any increase would be good, hoping to hit the 90k mark tomorrow. (Even if it ends up flat still great). Other good news, ps where up to 77.2k increasing almost 18k, last week at wed midnight Elemental had 88.6k, this week we should easily beat that. So going in to the weekend PS should be up once more, setting up for another weekend increase!

Still a good pace, should start to ramp up on thursday and friday and hopefully explode on monday and tuesday.

It's heading towards 38k CGV 27k now, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 0, 1 and then depending on the CGV ratio 0.42 or 0.43 we get 88.5k -90.5k so yeah seems fair.

Well 90k is happening today ^^ I can't wait to see in increase tomorrow, I mean even if it doesn't match the 110.284 admission from last wednesday because of the discount the total gross will probably be higher tomorrow so I fully count that as a win It would only need 92k for that and if wednesday is increasing over tuesday it will probably be atleast 4-5k.

Btw do you know when school do go off here? Thanks alot!

Big drop for Elemental on sunday and monday compared to the previous week. Also big as in 33.1%, a big drop for this movie.

It's running miles ahead from yesterday, yesterday it had 20k CGV at 15:20. Today it's looking to get atleast 23k by 15:20. Yesterday had a strong evening but I don't see why totday woudn't match that so I guess 36k + incomming today meaning around 85k. I mean if it gets to 23k by 15:20 (it will atleast) it would also mean it gained 1k over yesterday so it's very possible that it might squise out an extra 1k in the evening for a total of 37k (87k+). Anyway the movie isn't slowing down at all, clearly still accelerating at this point! EDIT: After that 14:20 update it will get to 24k by 15:20 so yeah going over 37k today is locked we might play touch and go with 90k total today!!

80k should be doable with that, let's see how it plays out tomorrow (tuesday normaly a bit more PS heavy than monday)

A 3-4m opening no matter how you slice will impact it for sure, can't see it dropping less than 30% when MI openes to that level. As for CGV I am hoping 11k today.

For that we would need to see it increasing day over day, or atleast thursday over thursday! Cause if it start dropping on weekdays (don't think it wil yet) it will be slowing down. Anyway monday over thursday is a great indicator it's still gaining momentum. PS are on pace to match / exede last ones as well so still pointing to atleast a flat weekend.

Another respectable drop amids new competition for Elemental, dropping 16% weekend to weekend. 1.5m seems very doable, thinking it will do more. # Título Thu-Sun Accumulated 1 Elementos 159.145 867.502 2 Indiana Jones y el llamado del destino 131.692 131.692 3 Transformers: el despertar de las Bestias 46.199 657.944 4 Flash 44.872 474.107 5 Spider Man: A traves del Spider Verso 33.305 766.182 6 Kraken y Sirenas: Conoce a los Gillman 33.226 33.226 7 La Sirenita 23.632 1.259.082 8 Rapiods y furiosos X 14.588 2.267.627 9 Boogeyman: tu miedo es real 8.097 114.274 10 Blondi 4.340 48.780

That would be very nice, would mean an increase over last thursday! Would also be higher than the 74k I noted down in google sheet yesterday, would be a very nice number

CGV at 25k it should add, 2k, 2k, 1k, 1k, 0k, 1k for a total of 32k vs the 30k of last monday. 7k would be 1 / 3.571 of the current total. Adding that on top of the current total would give 72.6k for today. Anyway last week on tuesday it did 68.5k with 31k CGV, with current ratio it's looking to beat that. What will be interesting is if it will drop tomorrow as we would normaly expect or is the movie still gaining momentum.

Elemental vs TGD, WEEK 3: SK up to $17.3m after a $7.7m week, increasing more than 30% week to week and up 38% on FSS. Already up $9.2m vs TGD, looking like it will beat it by over $30m. Mexico: After no being able to open to 100m lc last week (only 80m lc), it had a great week and added another $5.2m (89mish lc), totaling $9.9m. Only need $3.35m more to match TGD. It will probably clear $18m confidently. (up $5m from TGD). Argentina: Added another $900k for a $4m total, down 10% on last weekend. With school holidays comming up it's looking good for atleast $7.5m, $10m very doable. TGD only made $5.35m so might gain $4.5m on it. France: Elemental added another $3.4m to $6.1m, still $400k behind TGD closing the gap by $100k. TGD ended it's run with $18.05m, still looking hard to beat but possible. Might come short a few milion USD. Australia: After a $1.1m OW and a $1.1m full second week, it added $2.2m this week doubeling it's previous total. TGD made $10.3m in total. After an OW of $1.1m it seemed impossible to match that but with an amazing week and more school being out the comming week it might be close to $7m by next weekend and matching TGD seems possible now. Italy: It added another $2.1m this week, the weekend was down only 13% from last weeks FSS. Elemental was behind $300k last week and is now ahead by $100k. TGD finished with $6.45m, Elemental should atleast match that, might gain a $1m on it in the end. Germany: It added another $2.2m this week totaling $4m. Admission increased 19% over last weekend. Elemental opened $500k higher and extended its lead to $1.5m. TGD ended with $5.6m, Elemental should be aiming for atleast $10m + so another $5m over TGD. Brazil: After a terrible OW of $1.5m Elemental added $2.5m this week for at total of $4m, increasing on the weekend (quite rare in Brazil). TGD finished its run with $11.9m, will be hard to match but if next weekend can stay close to flat or increase it might have a shot. Might lose $2-3m here. Colombia: Opened to $980k last week, added another $1.4m this week for a total of $2.4m Increasing over last weekend. Just shy $400k from TGD total of $2.8m. Should also gain a $2-3m on TGD in the end. It's clearly beating TGD that ended up making $209m OS-China. Adding china gets up to $225m and this movie should try to get $75m more than TGD for an OS total of $300m (will need a decent UK, Spain and Japan for this) meaning WW we might be looking at $430m. Obviously it only dropped 5% OS from last weekend and if it keeps holding this insanely higher is definitly possible but curently a total a bit over $400m seems where it's headed.

Higher than last monday (8.9k), also walk ups have been getting better by the end of the week. 70k should be doable I think

Very good presale pace, should be able to confidently beat the previous MI in total PS

Saturday: 1 INDIANA JONES ~ €710015 2 ELEMENTAL ~ €413689 3 THE FLASH ~ €81486 Elemental down 11.4% from last week, great drop I would say!