Tbf, I don't really see it as crazy. Time and time again he's made them a lot of money, even with decently risky projects (Dunkirk being a big one). They are clearly right to have faith in him from a commercial perspective alone.
Well for the popular shows they do have national tours that go to every major and mid-major city in the country for a pretty reasonable price. But that is generally well after the their Tony eligibility is up.
Rocketman should be a very nice, leggy success. While it probably would have fared better in the fall with less competition, still think works well as adult counter-programming against the blockbusters and animated features we have coming up.
For WB it seems to be their new norm. Think it's silly because 4pm is too early to have first showings IMO, too many people are still at work. Though everyone is creeping up as 6 pm previews seem to be pretty normal for big movies with some special fan events at 5 pm also becoming quite commonplace.
Tbf I don't take a ton of stock in Atom reports, since they are growing rapidly (even faster than presales overall are growing), so it's tough to make a 1 to 1 comparison from there.
Don't think it will quite reach I2, but I think $150m OW/500m total is certainly possible. A lot more hype for it than I think most expected, considering the eye rolls it generated among many when it was announced (obviously it seems like it will live up to the first 3 quality-wise as well).
It's a great thread and frankly, the most valuable in terms of box office analysis on the forum. This is becoming quite the database for presale info.
Thanks to all who make it happen!