I think all 3 exceeded most long-term pre-release expectations (TS4 really only shot up at the end), but yeah, Aladdin probably beat expectations by the most on a % basis.
Maybe? Who knows, I feel like he's made enough successful original films that he will have at the very least another chance to make a big-budget original blockbuster, though it's possible he may go to something smaller scale.
Inception is really when Nolan was confirmed as an A-list director in every sense of the word and Leo deserves a lot of credit for, as you say, lending credibility to the GA.
I would say Innarritu, while well known, doesn't fit this criteria. Also Scorsese has become a lot more consistent commercially over the past decade and a half (compared to previous at least) in large part because of DiCaprio.
Regardless, 125m is going to happen. Which I'm not sure is a great financial success depending on the OS with the large budget and Tarantino's back-end (not to mention the stars potential back-end). Still, far from a flop.
Should explode tonight, TS4's first Tuesday was massive and really the only standout day of the first week. Suspect 30m could be on the table, though that may be too much to ask for with the massive numbers.