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Cynosure

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    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    It is a success, that's all there is to say. If you think a 200% increase over TA1 isn't a success that just means there is something wrong with you.

     

    You need to look at market increase since 2012 and take that out of the 200%.

     

    2013 market increase was 27.5%, 2014 was 36.2% and Q1 of 2015 was 42.5%.

     

    That means a movie that did $69 million in 2012 should do 69*1,275*1,362*1,425 = $171 million based solely on market increase.

    • Like 1

    WEEKEND ESTIMATES | 05.08.15 - 05.10.15

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    Just a reminder, Disney gets about 45-50% of the share from DOM, 40-45% of the share from OS but 20-25% of the share from China.

     

    Assuming 450M DOM, 300M and 750M OS, that means they get between 562.5M and 637.5M.

     

    That's really not that much above the budget which is likely underestimated. Far from the amount the 'it made 1.5M WW' would let you expect.

    AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    I looked at total tickets sold. I didn't actually "adjust" to 2015. 

     

    And anyways, the movie Noctis is really comparing this to (the last Harry Potter) was released in 2011-after the date range you put forth.

     

    It's all speculation anyways. We have no idea how a movie would have done if it was even moved by a weekend. Would Age of Ultron opened higher had it switched places with Furious 7? That's speculation. Move it to a whole other year and who knows?

     

    Sure you can point to IMAX and 3D but it's important to note why these have become more important: theater attendance in general has been falling and those measures have helped recoup some of the lost money. That and inflation.

     

    It's not like inflation only affects ticket prices. Production and marketing budgets as well as salaries for the actors have massively increased and probably faster than inflation. So it doesn't help recoup some of the money at all.

    AVENGERS Official Wknd Estimates: 191M - Disney

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by Cynosure

    This is a bad post. SM1 played on 7,500 screens compared to probably 15,000 for TA2. It didn't have IMAX, 3D, or 13 years of inflation. I think admissions are the only real way to know just how much of a cultural zeitgeist occurred on each of these weekends.

     

    Hollywood uses inflation and other gimmicks to keep bragging about new records in the domestic market and yet pretty much every other country in the world requires admissions to be reported.

     

    I agree with this. I find it extremely frustrating that admissions aren't at least regularly reported along with the gross and Hollywood should have been called out ages ago on this. It's such a cheap tactic and apparently it works with all the 'of all time' you regularly read here.

     

    And even then, % of total population represented by admissions should be taken into account.

    Avengers: Age of Ultron OS Thread | $945.7M OS | $1.405B WW

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    Looks like Europe holdovers fell hard.  I don't think theses markets clear 700m.

    china and japan should bring in 300m making it close to 1B OS

    the 30% and 20% drops for sat sun dom are close to FF7. I don't think the fight hampered sat that much. the 2.3~ OW multiple IM3 and FF7 have would make DOM $440m

     

    Im making the call:

     

    FF7 wins WW!!!

     

    There's still Latin America though...And AOU appears to be doing better business than FF7 there.

    • Like 2
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