The Wild Eric

Also, we got a plot summary:

Yo @slambros I know you like some good movie posters.

They're seriously making a sequel to a movie no one remembers 7 years later? K.

The major three fall festivals have all wrapped up, and painted a better picture of the Oscar landscape. What really makes the race interesting is how, Best Actor and Supporting Actress aside, there's no clear frontrunner or obvious contender. Last year, all the attention from the fests were on La La Land and to a lesser extent Moonlight. The year before created a giant frontrunner with Spotlight. This year? I can't think of an obvious winner for a good chunk of the major awards, especially Best Picture, and we still don't know how Last Flag Flying, Wonder Wheel, The Post, or The Phantom Thread will factor into the competition. I'm basically gonna copy what Clay did a couple weeks ago, and analyze each film that has been seen already and its chances and see where they land for the above-the-line categories. If I didn't list a movie, assume that I think it's dead. Battle of the Sexes: The movie has solid reviews and everyone has raved about Emma Stone. The real hurdle the movie will have to face is its September release date, and Fox Searchlight having two frontrunners. It definitely won't get Best Picture, and I'm a little shaky about Best Actress, but it'll rack up a few noms at the Globes Big Sick: Will definitely rack up a few noms at the Globes, and maybe even an Original Screenplay nod at the Oscars. Holly Hunter also seems likely to get into Supporting Actress. Maybe Best Picture, but Amazon's other movies would probably have to bomb in order for that to happen. Breathe: Maybe Garfield gets a nom on account of how awful Best Actor is, but that's really about it. Call Me By Your Name: Picture and Adapted Screenplay are locks. No question about that. Timothee Chalamet is 90% guaranteed to get in, and Director also has a great shot. Supporting Actor is the more interesting one. A lot of people think Michael Stuhlbarg will get in over Armie Hammer, which I don't really get. Hammer has more material and is more important to the story, so it makes more sense, to me at least, he would get the nom. But of course, I haven't seen the movie, so maybe Stuhlbarg really is a scene stealer. Darkest Hour: Oldman's winning this. It's basically like J.K. Simmons in Whiplash. Nobody else comes close to his buzz. Picture is also a lock, as is likely Director and Screenplay (Don't know if it's adapted or original) Disaster Artist: James Franco has been praised for his portrayal as Tommy Wiseau, making him a lock for Best Actor. Sadly, A24 will probably put their money on Lady Bird and Florida Project, so a Best Picture nom is unlikely. Downsizing: As time goes on, the underwhelming "mehness" from most critics and fest-goers, have moved this from contender to a dud. Picture, Director and Screenplay are out, as I doubt Payne has the clout to make that happen. But I still think there's a decent shot Hong Chau could get in. Yes there have been a lot of complaints about her stereotypical character, but the Supporting Actress race is weak. There's three major frontrunners (Janney, Metcalf, Spencer), a likely contender with Hunter, and...not really much else. Maybe Juno Temple will surprise us with Wonder Wheel, maybe Kristin Scott Thomas gets in due to the weak competition, maybe Brooklyn Prince is frauded into supporting, but the pickings are slim, and there seems to be enough passion with Chau's performance she gets sneaked in there. I'm sure I'll be wrong, but I think Chau could still get in there somehow. Dunkirk: Picture and Director? Locks. That's about it though, outside of the technicals. Florida Project: DaFoe? In. Picture? I think A24's #1 will be Lady Bird, since Ronan's joint is more accessible. Get Out: I think this will still get into Best Picture. Not as confident as before, but I can see a lot of Academy voters being passionate towards the film. Original Screenplay is also very likely. I, Tonya: Janney's a lock, possibly for the win. Margot Robbie could get in, but the race is super competitive at the moment and it's hard to pick something.. I think there's an outside chance it could also nab Best Picture, but I don't trust Neon on handling the top prize. Lady Bird: A24's #1 contender. Picture is super likely, and Laurie Metcalf is a lock. I'm not gung-ho on Ronan, because of how competitive the race is, but I wouldn't be shocked if she got in the top 5. Molly's Game: Jessica Chastain is like Ronan and Robbie, where she might not be a total lock, but she's somewhere in the top 7 or 8. Screenplay nom is an obvious one. Roman J. Israel, Esq.: Controversial pick, but I think there's a possibility Denzel might sneak his way into Best Actor. He's beloved by voters, the Best Actor race is super weak, and even the negative reviews praise his work, especially for him playing against type. One could even argue Academy voters don't want a completely white Lead Actor/Actress lineup, and since he's the only real person of color that's a contender for the title...I know I sound crazy, but there's still some decent factors in his favor that I don't want to write him out completely, although I will admit, he isn't in my top 5 at the moment. But if Cranston/Carrell/Day-Lewis/Hanks go down, Denzel might be in there. The Shape of Water: The whole shebang. Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor (Shannon), Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay. Don't know if it will get a win, but it's secured nominations in all categories. Stronger: Gyllenhall might sneak in there, bc Best Actor race is weak, not completely confident, yadda yadda yadda Three Billboards: Its TIFF Audience win secures another whole shebang for Searchlight. Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay. Don't know if it'll win, but the TIFF love definitely shakes the game and turned everything around. Now, my predictions. Best Picture Call Me By Your Name Darkest Hour Dunkirk Get Out Lady Bird Last Flag Flying The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards ALT: Wonder Wheel Winner: Um...I guess The Post? Truth be told, all of the contenders have severe advantages and disadvantages that make this a real crapshoot, although the top 4 will probably be some combination of CMBYN, Dunkirk, Post, and Shape of Water. Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro Luca Guadiningo Martin McDonagh Christopher Nolan Steven Spielberg ALT: Joe Wright Winner: Split between Del Toro and Nolan, but gun to my head, I'll choose Del Toro. Best Actor Timothee Chalamet Bryan Cranston/Steve Carell Daniel Day-Lewis Tom Hanks Gary Oldman ALT: Jake Gyllenhaal Winner: Gary Oldman. No doubt about it. Best Actress Sally Hawkins Frances McDormand Margot Robbie Meryl Streep Kate Winslet ALT: Saorise Ronan Winner: Umm...Streep? It's basically her, Winslet, or Hawkins. Best Supporting Actor: Willem DaFoe Laurence Fishburne Armie Hammer Sam Rockwell Michael Shannon ALT: Michael Stuhlbarg Winner: Probably Rockwell. I dunno. Best Supporting Actress: Hong Chau Holly Hunter Allison Janney Laurie Metcalf Octavia Spencer ALT: Kristen Scott Thomas Winner: Janney. No contest. Best Original Screenplay: The Big Sick Darkest Hour (Is it original?) Get Out The Shape of Water Three Billboards ALT: Wonder Wheel Winner: Three Billboards I guess. Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name The Disaster Artist Last Flag Flying Molly's Game The Post ALT: Mudbound Winner: The Post.

To be fair, Hotel Transylvania 2, Peanuts and Kung Fu Panda 3 didn't have Thursday previews and they did fine. (To be honest, I don't really understand why some studios even have previews for some of their kids movies on school nights in the first place)

http://digitalcinema.bydeluxe.com/site/dlxportal/docs/TrailMix_by_Deluxe-_WK_38_US_2.pdf New trailer drops this week, behind Kingsman and Ninjago.

http://digitalcinema.bydeluxe.com/site/dlxportal/docs/TrailMix_by_Deluxe-_WK_38_US_2.pdf New trailer will be in front of Kingsman...although surprisingly much shorter than the first trailer.

Reception seems fine to me. I enjoyed the first one, and this seems to offer a lot of the same things I liked about the first one, so I don't have anything to complain about.

http://www.thewrap.com/kingsman-the-golden-circle-review-colin-firth-channing-tatum/ Negative from TheWrap.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/review/kingsman-golden-circle-review-1039813 Positive, but there was a "too long" complaint.

Nice of them to have the title drop in the trailer.

Would you say...you're in love with the Coco?

No, but I think it's unfair to chastise them over a Regal deal, when Disney did the same thing...twice (this year, they did the same thing with Guardians, Pirates, and Cars)

Variety posts the top 10 weekly. Just Google "Variety social media buzz", and you'll find them.

Disney did the same thing last year, with Zootopia, Jungle Book, Alice, Dory, BFG and Pete's. Were they desperate?

For fun, I added in some commentary and reasoning. Infinity War: $500M While it will be heavily frontloaded, I have faith in the film delivering the goods. It's pretty much the big finale for everything built up since 2012, so Marvel fans are there Day 1. The D23 footage reportedly is insane in terms of scope and scale, begging even casual fans to catch it on the big screen. Add in an Avengers/Guardians crossover and three weeks all to itself (No Mad Max/Pitch Perfect/Angry Birds to steal showtimes and screens), and it'll be the second-biggest MCU flick. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: $450M Legs for the first film were sexier than a Pratt-Dallas Howard-Goldblum threesome, showing audiences loved it, no matter what our dinosaur of an administrator would have you believe. It's hard to gauge much on this, as we don't have a plot summary available, but if it offers the same stuff audiences loved in the first Jurassic World, as well as up the stakes and potentially something fresh from the series, it'll be another humongous hit. And hey, maybe Goldblum will offer the magic touch he didn't give to Independence Day 2, and offer more #nostalgia. Although I think there will be a pretty big drop-off from World 1, as I don't see how Universal can replicate such a perfect storm. Aquaman: $360M With Han Solo still in the May slot, Aquaman is currently the big December tentpole, and this one seems like a clear winner, although obviously not as huge as Star Wars. From what little we've seen of his character in the Justice League promos, Momoa's take on the character looks like a real standout, where even if JL is not well-recieved, the character will still be a favorite for many audiences. Reportedly, the film's underwater setting is supposed to be gorgeous and something that needs to be seen on the big screen, so expect Wan and WB to get a lot of money, and legs sexier than a Momoa-Heard-DaFoe threesome. Incredibles 2: $350M A lot of people think this will blow up and go above $400M or even $450M, but I'm being slightly conservative. Finding Nemo was a cultural phenomenon, becoming the second-highest grossing film of 2003 and the highest-grossing animated film up to that point, with an adjusted gross crossing $500M, making it obvious why Finding Dory was such a huge success 13 years later. The Incredibles was another huge hit, but it wasn't anywhere near close to the cultural impact or cash cow Nemo was, adjusting to an amazing, but not bonkers $373M in today's tickets. But of course the film is still going to make oodles of cash. Nostalgia, superhero craze, a severe lack of family competition, likely fantastic reviews, etc. So it'll still be a big hit, but I'm hesitant in saying it will be as much of a success as Finding Dory was last year. Han Solo: $340M No matter what the behind-the-scenes drama will say, and no matter how pointless you think the movie will be, it's still a Star Wars movie. People are going to see the flick no matter what, and it will easily be in the top 5 highest-grossing films next year. But it's in a much different situation than its recent predecessors. No holiday legs, much more competition (I really feel Disney should have moved the movie to the first weekend of August instead of placing Winnie the Pooh there), and while people will definitely be excited, it's a stretch to say people are as anticipated with the project as they were with the sequel trilogy or to a lesser extent Rouge One. So not as big as any of the other Star Wars flicks, but it's obviously going to be huge. Black Panther: $335M T'Challa was one of the highlights for Civil War and the reason why people were so excited to see it. Its teaser trailer made a huge splash online. It has an entire month to itself, with no major tentpole until Disney's own Wrinkle in Time comes out in March. It could very well be a cultural touchstone and an important flick for many people, particularly within the black community (#BlackPantherSoLit was trending once Civil War came out). Easily going to be the biggest MCU origin story. Deadpool 2: $290M When Deadpool came out, it offered a unique twist, combining superhero adventure with raunchy comedy and meta humor. It helped make the film stand out the fist time, but will the sequel be as much of an event as the first one? Even with the addition of new characters, it's unlikely people will return, unless there's something really fresh and exciting to the formula. I admit it's hard for me to really judge it, as we have no footage to work off of, but I don't know if lighting will strike twice, especially because Deadpool 2 has way more competition than its predecessor. The Grinch: $285M Aside from Cat in the Hat, The Grinch is likely Seuss' biggest and most recognized novel, especially with its adaptations. The Chuck Jones special is regularly watched every Christmas, and the Jim Carrey film was the #1 film in 2000. Putting together the massively successful Grinch brand with the uber-successful Illumination brand spells out big bucks for Universal. Kids and adults will love it, and it'll easily be another hit for Illumination's porfolio. It won't hit Secret Life of Pets levels though, because of how many family tentpoles there are eating at its dollars. But hey, I wouldn't be surprised if it's on the higher end of Illumination's box office grosses. Never doubt the company and its propaganda-level marketing campaigns. Mary Poppins Returns: $270M 2018 will likely be a banner year for Disney, and Poppins will be the final hurrah for the studio. Similar to The Wizard of Oz, Mary Poppins is one of those classics every family owns in some way or form, and is loved by all generations, still being a massive part of Disney history and pop culture. All of the footage or bits of information revealed have gone over extremely well and have made headlines among Disney fans, and it is the first major Poppins adaptation since the Broadway musical (I know there's Saving Mr. Banks, but it was only a tangential relation, so shuddup). With nostalgia, holiday legs, and being the most appealing option for families in the December timeframe, particularly with girls, it will easily be one of Disney's biggest hits in a year filled with big hits.

You can stan and fawn over your mid-20s actress, I can stan and fawn over mine. (Although she's admittedly tied between Daisy and Saorise. They're all equally charming and talented that I just can't decide.)

No. My heart goes toward someone else. @WrathOfHan @CJohn Also, if we're talking BO, the most likely scenario would probably be The Wolverine numbers, which I and I believe Fox would be very satisfied with.