Eric Prime

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-12 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 162 4341 31384 13.83% Total Seats Sold Today: 78 Comp - T-12 2.145x of Black Widow (28.31M) 4.439x of Shang-Chi (39.06M) 2.636x of Eternals (25.04M) 0.284x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (14.19M) 0.852x of The Batman (18.4M) 0.439x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.79M) 0.750x of Thor 4 (21.74M) 0.588x of Black Panther 2 (16.47M) 2.153x of Avatar 2 (36.6M)

Done and done. Sorry I didn't do it sooner. Been preoccupied with other stuff today.

Discuss

Discuss

Finally a reason to get excited for this.

Okay. I wasn't talking about Knock at the Cabin. I was talking about why there weren't more mainstream LGBT movies in the 2000s and 2010s.

Still weird to me how we had so many prominent mainstream LGBT hits in the 90s with stuff like The Birdcage, Philadelphia, In & Out. Then like TV had Will and Grace and Broadway had Rent. And then there was like...no momentum once we got to the 2000s, apart from Oscar nominees like Brokeback Mountain and Milk. These kinds of comedies and dramas were still prominent and popular in the 2000s thanks to the home video market. But we barely got anything from mainstream Hollywood. Even in the early 2010s, when these types of midbudget movies were still a thing, we barely got crumbs despite Glee and Modern Family being on the air. I don't get it.

This is hilarious lol. Back in my day, we would have gotten one season a year. And we were happy with that!

The only Gay MovieTM that matters. Probably has Harrison Ford's finest acting performance in that movie.

Please do not put words into other user's mouths please.

Mah boi, you gotta use the Notes app on your phone to keep track of this stuff. You can't just use your memory.

I agree that people want sunshiny rainbow escapism, which is...a whole other gross can of worms. But using that to explain why a divisive film from a very divisive filmmaker, whose premise and ad campaign isn't as strong a hook or as easy to sell compared to a beach turning people old was, in a genre that while consistently a downer and sad and bleak is one of the few genres that consistently makes solid money...yeah no, I don't buy that "people don't wike being sad :(((((((" argument here. It'll be even funnier when Scream 6 and The Boogeyman both become hits.

Very sad I didn't get to do this eariler, but better late than never. 15x: Shazam! Fury of the Gods: Minions: The Rise of Gru, DC League of Super Pets, Don't Worry Darling, See How They Run, Ticket to Paradise, Till, The Banshees of Inisherin, Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Strange World, The Fabelmans, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2 8x: Oppenheimer: Nope, Jaws, Avatar, The Fabelmans, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, A Man Called Otto, Living 7x: Knock at the Cabin: Don't Worry Darling, The Fabelmans, Violent Night, M3GAN, Plane, The Whale, A Man Called Otto Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, The Menu, Strange World, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, A Man Called Otto Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse: Dog, Uncharted, The Guide, RRR, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2 6x: Creed III: Till, Black Adam, Bones and All, Avatar: The Way of Water, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Women Talking 5x: Plane: Dawn of the Dead 3D, Black Adam, Violent Night, Babylon, M3GAN Magic Mike's Last Dance: Bones and All, The Menu, Babylon, The Whale, A Man Called Otto John Wick: Chapter 4: Bullet Train, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2, Plane, The Whale The Super Mario Bros. Movie: Black Adam, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Strange World, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2 4x: M3GAN: Dawn of the Dead 3D, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Bones and All, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever Round 2 Women Talking: Till, Bones and All, Armageddon Time, Corsage Chevalier: The Menu, The Whale, Women Talking, Living Book Club: The Next Chapter: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Babylon, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2, Women Talking 3x: The Whale: The Menu, The Fabelmans, Corsage Living: Till, Corsage, The Whale A Man Called Otto: The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Corsage House Party: Dawn of the Dead 3D, Black Adam, Violent Night Jesus Revolution: Ticket to Paradise, Plane, Living 2x: The Son: The Banshees of Inisherin, Armageddon Time Cocaine Bear: Violent Night, Babylon 65: Avatar: The Way of Water, A Man Called Otto Evil Dead Rise: M3GAN, Plane Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3: Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2, Plane The Little Mermaid: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish Round 2 The Flash: Uncharted, The Batman Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part 1: Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water Round 2 The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes: Lightyear, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom: Uncharted, The Batman

It's the weather. The wind chills here are absurd, with so many noreaster states feeling like single digits or sub-zero. New England was practically Antarctica yesterday, which is really bad for the audience intended for 80 for Brady. And sadly, today's not looking much better.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-13 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 162 4263 31384 13.58% Total Seats Sold Today: 76 Comp - T-13 2.227x of Black Widow (29.4M) 4.530x of Shang-Chi (39.87M) 2.731x of Eternals (25.94M) 0.288x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (14.42M) 0.857x of The Batman (18.52M) 0.437x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.73M) 0.763x of Thor 4 (22.12M) 0.587x of Black Panther 2 (16.45M) 2.182x of Avatar 2 (37.09M)

https://thequorum.com/universal-has-been-pushing-oppenheimer-so-why-havent-the-tracking-numbers-improved/

Well this was talked about in the Tracking Thread earlier today. Might as well take a wack at it. Keep in mind I'm only looking at Final Awareness, because I wanted to be done with this quick and I don't have unlimited time on my hands. 2021 Awareness In terms of final awareness, teen% and 20% is good as dead. When your movie has final awareness in the 30s, you have a 40% chance of a double-digit opening and 10% chance of 20M. In the 40s? 86% chance of double digits, 57% chance of 20M, 43% chance of 40M, 28% chance of 70M. The 50s? 100% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, and then 33% chance of 90M. And then you have F9 at 60% and No Way Home at 73%. Keep in mind we have a pool of only 27 movies. That's not great. 2022 Awareness Sub-30%, it's a 5% chance that you get to 10M. If it's in the 30s, you have a 39% chance to reach 10M and a 0% chance of 20M. In the 40s, 92% chance of 10M, 61% chance of 20M, 38% chance of 30M, 15% chance of 40M. Hit the 50s, 100% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 57% chance of 30M, 28% chance of 40M, 14% chance of 60M. In the 60s range, 100% chance of 50M, 87% chance of 70M, 75% chance of 100M. And then in the 70s, you got Avatar and The Batman, which are both only a couple thousand apart in their OWs. Huh. So I guess in 2022, the bar has gotten lower. If you were above 50% in 2021, you got a minimum of 44M. And in 2022, the minimum is 15M. But even then, it's kind of hard to say anything definitive for 2023 lowering the bar even lower, because we're only 5 weeks into the year and I only tracked six movies so far. Just kind of unfair. @M37 and @Favorite Fearless Legion since y'alls were in the conversation too.

They played a commercial for this in front of every episode of Jeopardy the past two weeks. Last time I saw something this aggressive was The Woman King.

I already explained much of this over in this thread: But for the TL;DR version, The Quorum is a website that reports on the awareness and interest metrics for upcoming films. And I track this data for films and use them to determine how likely a film is set to open, specifically ~2 months and ~1 month before release, as well as the final week before release. And in Scream 6's case, about one month before release, more than half of the people, 56% of them in fact, are aware that a Scream 6 is coming out. And of that group, on a scale of 1 to 10, the interest and excitement from that group is about a 6.14 out of 10. Those are both great metrics to be in one month before release. Scream 6 is in the same company as films like F9, Sonic 2, Lightyear, Top Gun 2, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4, and even No Way Home, which were all above 6.0 and above 50%. Those two are considered the best positions to be in for a final piece of data metric, so already getting there a month before release is excellent. HOWEVER, that does not mean that Scream 6 (and also Creed 3, which is in the same boat) will easily get to 100M. Even 70M is impossible. These are very different films from Marvel or Fast and Furious and have smaller expectations and ranges. And if you're expecting them to get to 70M and 100M because of this, you're a nitwit. And honestly, 50M is arguably a stretch and a half too. However, it does show that both movies are tracking very well and getting their audiences excited. So that should lead to a boffo opening for their franchises' standards. And by comparison, at ~30 days before release, Scream parentheses 2022 was at 43.23% Awareness and 5.48 Interest. So it's likely to beat out that film's opening weekend.

This. I know the kid in Black Phone was a little older, but child abduction is also a scary and sad thing. I don't think a horror movie having a scary, sad thing in it is the issue. Honestly I think the main thing that made me hesitant on the film breaking out was that the premise wasn't as attention-grabbing. Split and Old had very basic, easy to sum up premises ("It's a guy with a bunch of personalities!" "It's a beach that turns you old!"). "It's a group of people harassing some people in a cabin and asking them to kill a loved one to stop the apocalypse" isn't as exciting a hook and I feel like there weren't all too many money shots in the trailers and ads to compensate. And while I loved Glass and Old, you could argue the polarizing reception of those films also probably dinged a lot of interest in the film. Either way, this is still looking to do at least on par with Old, so I think the movie's still doing fine.

Really hope this becomes a trend. It'll be very annoying for tracking a movie, but tiered pricing where small movies cost smaller tickets is a legit great incentive to get people to watch more than just the big-budget toy commercials and it's baffling theaters and studios haven't done that to get people interested apart from Tuesday discount days. People love a good, cheap deal! Aren't all horror movies heavy in their subject matter? The concept is about monsters or demons or serial killers trying to kill other people. How more depressing can you get than that? And even if you want to argue something like M3GAN is more comedic, both Black Phone and Smile were a lot more dramatic and serious and scary and they both did just fine. I don't think it being a sad horror movie is the problem here.