Eric Prime

Read the title. Have fun!

Take out Borat and there’s our Best Picture lineup. Don’t know if it’s this year they are required to do 10 noms, but if it is...I guess Soul?

Dude...shut up.

It's actually really funny because speaking as somebody whose job is to check threads daily and moderate activity, I can only think of a couple people who eagerly love to dogpile WB/HBO Max/whatever. If anything, there's legions of people whose entire personality seems to just be "Disney bad". Anytime a Disney movie underperforms even slightly, the knives are out against them and threads sometimes go on and on about whether it's ethical to watch a Lion King remake or whatever in theaters. It's even weirder still since a lot of people were championing Tom and Jerry's opening, almost as if people here...like seeing good box office numbers regardless the studio. Really, the Raya dogpiling that's been happening (and yes, it's happening way more than any championing or defensiveness that people pretend to act is going on) is sadly par for the course, both for a low opener and a Disney release. Not sure why WB stans/"Disney bad" personality types are acting as if one or two defenses from randos means the majority are acting like the movie's a smash success, but they seem to get angry whenever somebody mildly critiques a DC movie's box office or just...does their job as a reporter, so I guess that's to be expected. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What are you even talking about? How is an article that talks about how Disney's theatrical terms were unfair, mentions the opening was below expectations, and is against the Premier Access strategy somehow makes the writer a "Disney Stan"? How mean and negative does he have to be to make it clear he's not a Disney stan? And he wasn't even being mean to Tom & Jerry at all. He's just reporting that people thought it would repeat at #1, and it won't. He also said the film had a larger drop because all the other WB/Max titles have and...yeah, that's largely been the case so far.

Didn't Disney+ have their biggest sign-up boost with Soul since Hamilton? Pretty sure there was some data from Antenna or whatever that showed that.

https://deadline.com/2021/03/raya-and-the-last-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office-new-york-city-disney-1234708406/

Discuss

I know that Japan's Toho Cinemas aren't playing the movie, and they have a strong footprint of theaters. I thought I remembered somebody saying some Korea chains aren't playing the movie, but I could be wrong there.

To be fair, Soul wasn't boycotted by major theater chains.

https://deadline.com/2021/03/raya-and-the-last-dragon-opening-weekend-box-office-asian-marketing-campaign-mcdonalds-1234708089/

And with that, I will call THABOS to a close. Yeah, this wasn't the sexiest way to end things, but I feel like ending on 2020 was a nice concluding piece. This year was one full of surprises, so I think it's nice that we're at a point where we can't really say what's destined to happen. Hopefully things will be for the best. Most importantly, I just wanted to say thank you. Thank you to everybody who replied and shared their love for this series. You have no idea how special this stuff is to me. Without the positive feedback and discussion, this probably would have been abandoned. Thank you to everybody who liked my posts or just casually read them, thank you to everybody who gave their input on the box office, and super-duper extra huge thank you to @baumer the original architect who so kindly allowed me to complete this series and give it the true, proper ending it deserves. Bro, this wouldn't have happened without you. As always, stay at home whenever possible, wash your hands, wear a mask, appreciate your loved ones, trans rights are human rights, all cops are bastards and Black Lives Matter. Here's to a great 2021 at the box office!

Of course, the one story people actually want to talk about when it comes to the 2020 box office is how the 2020 box office...died. First identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, the coronavirus has changed just about every facet of life and civilization. The movies are no exception. But for our purposes, let’s ignore the production issues and focus more on the distribution side of things. Film was already impacted hard by lockdowns throughout China by the time Chinese New Year rolled around. Anticipated titles like Detective Chinatown 3 were postponed indefinitely and all movie theaters were completely shut down. With China being one of, if not the most important market for many blockbusters, things became tricky. But as March rolled around, as the virus spread throughout Europe, South America, and North America, more and more markets closed down. Italy, France, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, the US. All of this led to open theaters but anemic attendance at best or complete closures at worst. And by mid-March, movie theaters were closed entirely. So not only did films like Onward, The Invisible Man, Bloodshot, and many more get kneecapped in terms of box office numbers, but 99% of all movies got delayed. The first major one was the Bond title No Time to Die, an omen for things to come. Peter Rabbit 2 was the next to go, and the hits kept on coming. A Quiet Place Part II and Mulan, films that just had their world premieres and press tours completed, were delayed. And in the weeks ahead, more and more films got announced for a delay. Black Widow, Scoob!, In the Heights, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Candyman, F9, Ghostbusters: Afterlife, Morbius, the list goes on. However, delaying movies wasn’t enough. With a huge revenue source like movie theaters gone completely, and a massive logjam of delayed titles pushed into the fall of 2020, 2021, and beyond, some of these movies had to get out there. They had to make money on these investments somehow and they had to do it fast. So some of the major studios got creative. It first started with all the January, February, and early March movies coming to digital stores mere weeks after releasing in theaters. And things kept ballooning from there. Universal was one of the first to place their movies digitally, though with a heavy cost. If you wanted to watch The Invisible Man or Emma, you had to pay $20 just to rent it, in what was called Premium Video on Demand. This would soon lead to their biggest launch in this new PVOD format with the anticipated Dreamworks sequel Trolls World Tour. While it did play in a few drive-ins, most viewers, particularly families stuck at home together, watched the film at home, paying $20 to experience this brand new movie. The actual rentals and revenue made through VOD is still unknown, but reports were made the film earned $40 million over the weekend from digital stores. Considering that studios get 80% of the revenue from digital stores compared to the 45-55% from theatrical plays, that meant Universal got what was already a pretty solid opening weekend and got more revenue from it in the process. It was estimated by Deadline the film needed to be rented 9-12 million times, or $200 million, in order for the film to see a profit, and aside from that first weekend, we only have vague guesstimates, with some believing the film reached $150-200 million or so in rentals. And some industry vets argue the film would never see a profit. But perhaps the biggest controversy that came from World Tour’s release was the backlash from the major theater chains, AMC in particular. Because Universal completely abandoned the theatrical experience and AMC was particularly hurting during this virus, AMC formally announced they would not play any Universal films for the indefinite future, while Regal said they would not play movies that did not respect the theatrical window. But despite all the backlash and concerns from the industry, it seemed like World Tour did good enough for Universal to continue with this kind of PVOD rollout. Films like The King of Staten Island, The High Note, You Should Have Left, and Irresistible all landed on the service in the months ahead, though the numbers made are even more hidden. When theaters started to come back in late summer and early fall, Universal made a brand new deal with AMC and other theater chains that would allow their movies to play, but with very shortened theatrical windows. Basically, Universal movies would exclusively play in theaters, but only for about 17 days, before becoming $20 PVOD rentals. This strategy also meant AMC would get a share in the revenue from digital rentals. This would result in films like Come Play, Freaky, Let Him Go, and The Croods: A New Age all getting a run in theaters and a chance to make money on digital stores when the iron was red-hot. This was also further revised where if a film opens to more than $50 million, the Universal release has to play in theaters exclusively for 31 days. As I said before, things are still up in the air in terms of how beneficial this deal is, though Croods: A New Age seems to have been the strongest hit for both parties. Disney was particularly hit the hardest when it came to the coronavirus, as their event tentpole strategy meant there was no way they could make a profit on their movies without a worldwide theatrical release...or at least that was the idea. The launch of Disney+ months before the lockdowns meant they had a platform that allowed them to launch new Disney movies and have a strong subscriber base that was interested and willing to check their movies out. So films like Onward were put on Disney+ early, while planned theatrical engagements like Hamilton, The One and Only Ivan and Soul were put onto Disney+ exclusively. But the big exciting headliner news was the debut of Mulan on Disney+. But it wasn’t just a movie given to audiences for free. Rather, Mulan was placed into a tier known as Premier Access. On top of your Disney+ subscription, if you were willing to pay $30 extra, you can watch and enjoy Mulan three months early compared to when everybody else could watch it. This strategy earned heavy backlash in the run up to release, but Disney still soldiered on. The actual revenue made from Mulan, like with all streaming ventures, is still under wraps. Third-party sources believed the film failed to generate much traffic, with US revenue estimated to be $62-93 million according to 7Park Data, a far cry from the $200 million production budget Mulan generated in addition to the massive marketing budget spent prior to the COVID-19 lockdowns. This was of course not helped by Mulan being hit with major controversies after people discovered the film was shot in Xianjiang, a city known for their internment camps. But while a lot of evidence does point towards Premier Access for Mulan doing poorly, it seems Disney is willing to try out this strategy again or that Mulan did better than people thought. Just today, Disney put their new animated release Raya and the Last Dragon on Disney+ Premier Access, with the same $30 price tag. But in a twist, Raya is available to watch in theaters on the exact same day. With the chance to watch it in theaters, as well as Raya’s positive reviews, it isn’t crazy to say Raya might do better with this new Premier Access strategy, but things are still very up in the air, though initial box office numbers in certain territories are pretty poor. Not helped of course by Disney's terms resulting in several chains refusing to play the movie. But if it does land, it’s not crazy to say films like Black Widow, Cruella, and the new Pixar film Luca will follow suit in the theater/Premier Access dual release, especially as Europe is still trying to deal with COVID vaccines. Either way, another big shift from Disney in the COVID aftermath was a complete restructuring of Disney’s media and entertainment divisions, with the main emphasis now on streaming. Essentially, studio and network chiefs have greater power on what should go to Disney+ or what should go to movie theaters or traditional network/cable. All of this means there’s a greater emphasis on streaming exclusives that indicate the main driving factor is juicing up Disney+ and Hulu for the indefinite future. CEO Bob Chapek has also stated there are plans to shorten the theatrical window, as consumers want new movies to come quicker to the home. Paramount would also announce that films like A Quiet Place Part II and Mission: Impossible 7 would also see a shortened window of 45 days and later appear on the Paramount+ service. But the biggest headliner, at least negatively, was Warner Bros. bold decision. While Scoob! would see a Trolls World Tour style PVOD release, the studio also planned to make a big splash in the world of streaming with the service HBO Max. Not only would this already have the iconic HBO legacy behind it, but it would also include other content from the other networks and brands under the WarnerMedia banner, such as DC Comics, Turner Classic Movies, and Cartoon Network. HBO Max’s initial sign-ups were not very strong, largely due to brand confusion from all the other HBO services, ultimately finishing its first quarter of release with only 4.1 million subscribers, though technically they had 26.6 million since a lot of HBO subscribers get Max for free. A majority just haven't activated and upgraded to Max yet. Especially considering Disney+ launched with 10 million in one day, these numbers were considered disappointing. Coupled with Tenet’s bad domestic numbers, it was clear Warner was in a bad situation. Their big streaming kick didn’t set the world on fire and all these potential hit movies they had were collecting dust indefinitely. So on December 3, 2020, Warner announced one of the boldest moves in the history of the industry. Wonder Woman 1984 wasn’t just the only movie that would do a dual release of theaters and HBO Max in the United States. Instead, every single movie from Warner Bros. in 2021 will get this dual release. Whether they be small-scale films like The Little Things starring Denzel Washington or big-budget epics like The Suicide Squad and Denis Villenueve’s Dune. International viewers still have to see it in theaters or pay for it on VOD, but if you’re in America, if you get HBO Max, you can watch the movie absolutely free for a month or go to the theater if you are inclined. This change did not go over well. Warner did not inform any of the production companies, talents, or movie theater owners about this strategy. The back-end for filmmakers and actors is now up in the air completely, movie theater owners will have fewer tickets to sell, and it means all these films are set for heavy losses as it’s basically available for free to most customers. Of course having said all that, as of this writing, the two biggest opening weekends in the current pandemic have been Wonder Woman 1984 and Tom & Jerry, two films that are doing the simultaneous Max/theatrical release. Go figure. The biggest drawback with making a historical lookback series like this is that history is still happening. We’re still in a period where studios are throwing everything at the wall and seeing what sticks. And while a lot of people here on BOT like to pretend that they know exactly what is happening, nobody knows what’s going to happen next year, let alone 10 or so years from now. It may be a while before we really see how these new strategies that emphasize streaming and at-home viewing will impact the box office, the exhibitors, and the studios. But if I can at least predict what could possibly happen, though I have no idea, 2020 has accelerated something that was likely going to happen years from now anyway. As much as I infused this lookback with positivity and celebrating box office giants and moneymakers, the sad truth is that theatergoing has been on the decline for a few years now. Attendance has been dropping every year, masked by the increase in ticket prices and stuff like Marvel making a lot of money. And as time has gone on, the industry has shifted to the point where only very few movies make any significant cash. In 2019, only one movie grossed in the $200 million range, while 10 movies went above $300 million, and everything was sub-$200 million. This is not a sustainable or healthy market, and it shows that people treat moviegoing more as an occasional pastime rather than a frequent event. Helped also by the influx of premium screens, recliner seats, and dining options, it only further treats cinemagoing as an expensive outing and not the most sustainable one nowadays. And at the same time, studios only got about half of a movie’s box office because they had to share it with a middle man. The reason why the theatrical window has gotten smaller and smaller over the years is because DVD and digital sales give the studios more revenue, about 80% or so. And for stuff like Disney+ or HBO Max, studios get all the money and there’s no middleman to pay. These quarantine lockdowns, the money troubles plaguing AMC and Cineworld, the shortened theatrical windows, and the day-and-date releases of movies all point to the idea that cinemas and theatrical moviegoing are not the big exclusive benefactor for a movie’s success. Rather, they could become a vinyl-style equivalent to renting a premium movie on digital or checking it out on Netflix. They will come out on the same day or at best a couple weeks before it’s available at home. And maybe these strategies will go away once this pandemic is over. But that won’t be easy, as people start getting used to or even appreciate these shorter windows and emphasis on streaming. And yeah, that’s kind of a bummer note to end things on. The idea that the thing we all follow and study is becoming less important in a business where subscriber numbers and vague digital sales reports become the main source for these studios and their profits. But this isn’t the end of amazing box office stories. There’s always going to be an audience for theatrical experiences. It may not be as exclusive, grand, or exciting as before. It may not be as long-lasting. It may not be as big a push to the major movie studios compared to the likes of HBO Max or Paramount+. But we’ll always have really fun box office stories to tell. We’ll always have exciting franchises doing their thing. We’ll always see trends come and go in movie theaters. I’m not going to say things will be perfectly back to normal. I’m not really going to say anything. I feel like 2020 should tell us that things are unpredictable. So in this instance, just know we will still have the box office and anything could happen, whether good or bad. Might as well just ride it out, and wait and see what happens down the road. Nobody predicted that Star Wars would make so much money in 1977. Nobody thought Independence Day would break opening weekend records. Nobody thought the MCU would become the dominant force in pop culture. So the best way to put it is to hope for the best and see what's on the horizon. You never know what the future holds.