Eric the Clown

They played a commercial for this in front of every episode of Jeopardy the past two weeks. Last time I saw something this aggressive was The Woman King.

I already explained much of this over in this thread: But for the TL;DR version, The Quorum is a website that reports on the awareness and interest metrics for upcoming films. And I track this data for films and use them to determine how likely a film is set to open, specifically ~2 months and ~1 month before release, as well as the final week before release. And in Scream 6's case, about one month before release, more than half of the people, 56% of them in fact, are aware that a Scream 6 is coming out. And of that group, on a scale of 1 to 10, the interest and excitement from that group is about a 6.14 out of 10. Those are both great metrics to be in one month before release. Scream 6 is in the same company as films like F9, Sonic 2, Lightyear, Top Gun 2, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4, and even No Way Home, which were all above 6.0 and above 50%. Those two are considered the best positions to be in for a final piece of data metric, so already getting there a month before release is excellent. HOWEVER, that does not mean that Scream 6 (and also Creed 3, which is in the same boat) will easily get to 100M. Even 70M is impossible. These are very different films from Marvel or Fast and Furious and have smaller expectations and ranges. And if you're expecting them to get to 70M and 100M because of this, you're a nitwit. And honestly, 50M is arguably a stretch and a half too. However, it does show that both movies are tracking very well and getting their audiences excited. So that should lead to a boffo opening for their franchises' standards. And by comparison, at ~30 days before release, Scream parentheses 2022 was at 43.23% Awareness and 5.48 Interest. So it's likely to beat out that film's opening weekend.

This. I know the kid in Black Phone was a little older, but child abduction is also a scary and sad thing. I don't think a horror movie having a scary, sad thing in it is the issue. Honestly I think the main thing that made me hesitant on the film breaking out was that the premise wasn't as attention-grabbing. Split and Old had very basic, easy to sum up premises ("It's a guy with a bunch of personalities!" "It's a beach that turns you old!"). "It's a group of people harassing some people in a cabin and asking them to kill a loved one to stop the apocalypse" isn't as exciting a hook and I feel like there weren't all too many money shots in the trailers and ads to compensate. And while I loved Glass and Old, you could argue the polarizing reception of those films also probably dinged a lot of interest in the film. Either way, this is still looking to do at least on par with Old, so I think the movie's still doing fine.

Really hope this becomes a trend. It'll be very annoying for tracking a movie, but tiered pricing where small movies cost smaller tickets is a legit great incentive to get people to watch more than just the big-budget toy commercials and it's baffling theaters and studios haven't done that to get people interested apart from Tuesday discount days. People love a good, cheap deal! Aren't all horror movies heavy in their subject matter? The concept is about monsters or demons or serial killers trying to kill other people. How more depressing can you get than that? And even if you want to argue something like M3GAN is more comedic, both Black Phone and Smile were a lot more dramatic and serious and scary and they both did just fine. I don't think it being a sad horror movie is the problem here.

Quorum Updates Emily T-15: 17.51% Awareness, 4.73 Interest Jesus Revolution T-22: 16.42%, 4.74 A Good Person T-50: 17.51%, 5.28 John Wick: Chapter 4 T-50: 56.22%, 6.7 Big George Foreman T-85: 17.29%, 5.13 Elemental T-134: 29.37%, 5.32 80 for Brady T-1: 40.32% Awareness, 5.24 Interest Final Awareness: 90% chance of 10M, 60% chance of 20M Final Interest: 41% chance of 10M, 14% chance of 20M Original - Low Awareness: 100% chance of 10M Original - Low Interest: 50% chance of 5M, 25% chance of 10M Knock at the Cabin T-1: 38.88% Awareness, 6.1 Interest Final Awareness: 37% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M Final Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 30M, 76% chance of 40M Horror Awareness: 50% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M Horror Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M Scream VI T-36: 56.29% Awareness, 6.14 Interest T-30 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 91% chance of 70M, 73% chance of 100M T-30 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M The Super Mario Bros. Movie T-64: 53.98% Awareness, 6.49 Interest T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 83% chance of 100M T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 50M, 86% chance of 100M Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 50M

Nope. Will likely do the same opening as Old did.

MY LIFE ISN'T A WASTE HOORAY

Wait...Tue-Wed-Thu? Where the heck are the Saturday numbers? Did I track all these stupid previews for nothing?

For what it's worth, and I know it's a pretty...aged comp, but Old did 11.24x a 1.5M preview in the heart of the summer. So this could still outpace Old, which I feel would still be quite good, especially when the hook and premise isn't as appealing or easy to sell as Old's or Split's was. Plus M. Night's movies are cheap and likely do well on digital. Sucks that it didn't go as high as we wanted, but not the end of the world.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-14 and Counting Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 162 4187 31384 13.34% Total Seats Sold Today: 91 Comp - T-14 2.263x of Black Widow (29.87M) 4.720x of Shang-Chi (41.54M) 2.812x of Eternals (26.71M) 0.295x of Spider-Man: No Way Home (14.74M) 0.860x of The Batman (18.59M) 0.436x of Doctor Strange 2 (15.69M) 0.781x of Thor 4 (22.66M) 0.601x of Black Panther 2 (16.84M) 2.261x of Avatar 2 (38.43M)

Legit, if people don't like ET, I can't be friends with them. Sorry, but that's just how I roll.

I'm half-convinced they're going to place it in like 2,200-2,500 theaters now after this. Those guys at Warner are definitely broke broke. Going to be sad when they get bought out by Universal or whoever 10 years from now.

ZASLAV IS GOING TO FUCK UP MY DUNE 2 AND WONKA I HATE IT HERE

Knock at the Cabin Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 46 717 9254 7.75% Total Seats Sold Today: 306 Comp 0.839x of Old (1.26M) 0.539x of The Black Phone (1.62M) 0.796x of Smile (1.59M) 0.644x of M3GAN (1.77M) Not sure why this movie had such a poor final week. I guess it could be Shyamalan fan frontloading, but that wasn't the case with Old. And reviews aren't that bad. Kinda weird, but it'll still do fine over the weekend.

80 for Brady Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report Final Count Sellouts Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Perct Sold TOTALS 0 46 762 5932 12.85% Total Seats Sold Today: 159 Comp 1.268x of House of Gucci (1.65M) 1.989x of Death on the Nile (2.19M) 2.761x of Dog (3.48M) 0.746x of The Lost City (2.42M) 1.134x of Downton Abbey 2 (2.15M) 0.709x of Elvis (2.48M) 1.325x of Where the Crawdads Sing (3.05M) 3.577x of Ticket to Paradise (3.93M) Very wonky, but it does indicate a 2M preview, which just...feels right, you know? Which hey! Way better than I ever expected going into it.

I've seen these examples before, but almost all the "breakouts" that don't fit in the "toy commercial" brand are horror movies like Smile, M3GAN, Black Phone, Nope, etc. Having only one type of movie be the exception to the rule doesn't really help my argument, especially when Smile and M3GAN will probably have a million sequels over the next few decades and M3GAN Funko Pops will be sold next to Chucky and Ghostface every year at Spirit Halloween. Only other ones from this year that I argue don't fit into this are Lost City, which would have done an easy 150M+ 10 years ago, Bullet Train, Everything Everywhere, and then like...Crawdads? Which would have probably made 100M+ 5-10 years ago too? Even Elvis is flimsy to put in here since these music biopics are the "prestige" version of a nostalgic toy commercial.

People love to use marketing as an easy crutch to complain when their faves bomb. And while that's not completely invalid, just about every movie has a lot of advertising and marketing that's designed to be effective and attention-grabbing. They had Babylon ads before every football game this year, and they all pushed the movie as "wacky crazy you're never gonna believe the insanity in here", which was an effective tool for Wolf of Wall Street all those years ago. The problem, simply put, is that audiences today hate the idea of watching a movie that isn't just a toy commercial or sets up a random movie universe. Therefore, any movie that is just a movie is set to fail because of modern audiences' narrow tastes. I know I say that all the time, and I know people think what I'm saying is unfair...but this has been the case for 98% of "normal movies" for a long time. Sad but true.

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/

https://deadline.com/2023/02/2023-super-bowl-movie-trailers-the-flash-fast-x-transformers-ant-man-expected-1235247160/