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Everything posted by Eric Deetz
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
A movie can have tons of trailers and marketing and ads and so on, and just straight up not connect with audiences. Trailers can help boost a film's awareness and interest, and just as likely not do anything for a film. Sucks, but it is what it is. The Fall Guy for instance had its trailers fail to move the needle in terms of awareness. That was an early premonition the film wasn't going to be all that. https://thequorum.com/film/?filmID=453 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Quorum Updates The Bikeriders T-23: 17.55% Awareness, 34.04% Interest Despicable Me 4 T-35: 61.24% Awareness, 58.97% Interest Fly Me to the Moon T-44: 21.97% Awareness, 37.67% Interest Longlegs T-44: 13.19% Awareness, 42.74% Interest Flight Risk T-142: 15.17% Awareness, 44.17% Interest Nosferatu T-210: 17.67% Awareness, 36.33% Interest The Wolf Man T-233: 15.5% Awareness, 40.33% Interest A Quiet Place: Day One T-30: 38.34% Awareness, 51.05% Interest T-30 Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 12% chance of 40M Horror Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M T-30 Interest: 95% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 76% chance of 30M, 70% chance of 40M Horror Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 40% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M Maxxxine T-37: 17.55% Awareness, 34.65% Interest T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 11% chance of 10M T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 33% chance of 10M Deadpool & Wolverine T-58: 58.26% Awareness, 66.56% Interest T-60 Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 93% chance of 40M, 86% chance of 50M, 64% chance of 60M, 57% chance of 70M, 50% chance of 90M, 43% chance of 100M, 7% chance of 200M DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 100M, 17% chance of 200M T-60 Interest: 100% chance of 100M DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 100M -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Because it's quite frustrating to spend hours of my own personal free time, compiling and reviewing and looking over information, for something I have strong interest and passion in, only to have somebody mock and degrade it all for no reason when they have made their point very, very clear and could have just ignored these posts. Plus, if you really must know, it makes perfect sense for Bad Boys to have more awareness than Deadpool, because that's almost always how this works. Generally speaking, the closer you are to a movie's release date, the higher the Quorum awareness number is. That's because the earlier movie will have more ads, more promos, a bigger push compared to the movie that's coming out much later, so it will be in the public conscious way easier. Plus, if you want to look at Interest, which is as much, if not more important of a barometer, Deadpool is in fact #1, while Bad Boys is all the way at #5. It's not just who is aware a movie is coming out, but whether they want to see it. So yeah, those Quorum people you think are hacks? They have data that believes Deadpool will be a bigger opener than Bad Boys. And I'm sure their projections have that, despite Bad Boys having more awareness, due to the fact it's dropping in a week. And again, if you look at the data I have, it indicates that Bad Boys 4's mid-60s awareness would mean an almost certain chance of 40M, 50M is super super likely, and even 60M isn't out of the question. I still don't think it's perfect for this film, as there aren't a lot of great comps at the moment for this range for a Medium-sized movie like this, but the indication is that it should open in the 40s at worst, the 60s at best, likely the 50s when all is said and done. Which uh...yeah, that's what the trackers here are saying. You can ignore or disregard their work all you want, but I have the right to post what I think is interesting and I don't need to get this kind of berating. I'm sure you didn't mean to, but intentions don't equal actions. -
Princess stuff has always had the hugest longevity and staying power with kids and Disney Adults regardless of box office. Bolt made more money than Princess and the Frog, and you probably forgot Bolt was a thing until just now.
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lol was about to say. Was really mad the pig didn’t do fun stuff in the ocean last time. Trailer itself? Looks like a Moana sequel alright. Which is a good thing! If you like Moana. If you don’t? Well…why would you watch this lol
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Will say before the teaser potentially dashes my hopes that I would think going from TV series to movie may actually be a blessing for this creatively? The big issue most of these Disney+ shows have is that their pacing drags, as they all feel like movies being bloated and padded out to be 6 episode TV shows. You could take Obi-Wan or Falcon and the Winter Soldier, remove a subplot here and there, and get a 2.5 hour movie that, at the very least, fixes pacing issues. Condensing a bloated Moana sequel from 130 minutes to about 95 or 100 minutes? Sounds good to me!
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
That is very much not what that data implies whatsoever, and I’ve explained this numerous times already, but go off I guess. 🙄 -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Quorum Updates Twisters T-53: 46.87% Awareness, 55.02% Interest The Forge T-88: 13.3% Awareness, 36.58% Interest Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-102: 57.29% Awareness, 64.67% Interest Speak No Evil T-109: 20.25% Awareness, 47.81% Interest Here T-184: 8.33% Awareness, 34.17% Interest Kraven the Hunter T-200: 27.52% Awareness, 39.64% Interest Bad Boys for Life T-11: 64.06% Awareness, 58.03% Interest Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M The Watchers T-11: 28.53% Awareness, 44.61% Interest Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-32: 20.91% Awareness, 36.31% Interest T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M T-30 Interest: 32% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M -
I mean I know from experience that outside of Harry Potter, the one non-Disney thing most Disney Adults adore is Broadway. And Wicked is one of the most iconic for that demographic. It's basically a Disney movie when you get down to it (not helped by Disney ripping it off like 5 times). At the very least, both dropping on the same day may not cause either movie to bomb, but it's still pretty foolish IMO
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Disney's got such a weird thing going on where they just keep the same release dates for everything. Which like in the 2018 was reasonable, but they are way more vulnerable to competition now. Elemental got a lucky break where everything surrounding it ended up bombing, but Moana's probably not looking likely, at least at the moment. And either way, having it out in early November, getting IMAX and all of Dolby to itself, makes way more sense box office wise, especially since you should still get a good Thanksgiving hold. But I guess Disney's too stubborn or stupid to do it? It's dumb!
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In my opinion, they were a crucial part of these movies' appeal. Partly because of the real-life husband and wife connection, as well as how they help add a sense of emotional and familial grounding that isn't seen in a lot of horror movies. They may not be the deepest characters, but they play a big part in the popularity and quality of these films, and I feel it doesn't quite feel right not seeing them in this. But hey! Could just be me! Could be wrong!
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Might be the constant underperformance of horror and Furiosa bombing, but Quiet Place feels like an underperformer tbh. It has the same problem Furiosa has where there's almost none of the original cast (though I guess Djimon Honsou makes it a little better?), and the hook isn't even all that interesting. It's showing what happened the first day the aliens took over...which is something we already saw in Quiet Place 2. Just feels like one where opening in the 30s would be an achievement IMO
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I will say that Twisters obviously won't gross as much as Top Gun Maverick, but it has a lot of the same vibes as that movie, so long as the film's got a banger RT score. And honestly, Lee Isaac Chung makes me feel pretty confident in that regard. Like it has some heartland/Americana stuff that can appeal to flyover states and rural/conservative areas, fun action and spectacle that you don't really see in movies anymore for PLF junkies, while potentially being a legit crowdpleasing and exciting movies for coastal elites like me. Plus, it's the only big PG-13 movie in town. So Deadpool will for sure hurt it on its second weekend, but it arguably stands out from all the R-rated mayhem coming afterwards. Weird to say PG-13 feels like counterprogramming, but this has been a weird summer. Again, it all depends on reviews, but I feel, at the very least, it will play well to underserved audiences.