Wrath

MovieWeb.com's weird predicts are back in full force, and I'm grateful for it. As well as nearly being caught back up. Overall, we were moderately optimistic on Florence, slightly optimistic on Pete, and actually rather low on Sausage Party. Interestingly, we were very tightly bunched in our Sausage Party predicts, weird for a movie that in theory was hard to predict. As usual, I totaled all predicts (16 for Florence, 17 for Pete's Dragon, and 18 for Sausage Party) and here are the results: Florence Foster Jenkins Mean: 8.5M Median: 7.765M StnDev: 2.8M (revised StnDev: 2.85M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 36.00% High: 15.3M Low: 5M BO.com 6.5M Deadline 5.5M MovieWeb 14.4M ShowBuzzDaily 6.5M Variety 8M Pete's Dragon Mean: 31.1M Median: 28.8M StnDev: 6.68M (revised StnDev: 6.61) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.21% High: 44.1M Low: 23M BO.com 31M Deadline 25M MovieWeb 43.1M ShowBuzzDaily 27M Variety 25M Sausage Party Mean: 22.9M Median: 23.2605M StnDev: 4.03M (revised StnDev: 4.62) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.31% High: 29M Low: 15M BO.com 30M Deadline 26M MovieWeb 28.5M ShowBuzzDaily 29.5M Variety 15M

Nine Lives Prediction: 7.9M +/- 3.35M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 6.249M (off by 1.7M, so 0.49 stndev) A good predict. Wasn't really terrific in percentage terms but a nice big StvDev made it a winner for us. We were roughly in the middle compared to other sites. Our best predict was James at 6M, barely beating a couple people at 6.5M. abcabc abcabc Suicide Squad Prediction: 137.6M +/- 17.12M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 133.682M (off by 3.9M, so 0.23 stndev) Another good predict. Everyone else pretty much everyone nailed it, too, but it was still a winner in my book. Our best predict was Blankments and his enthusiastic decimal places at 133.836M.

Going quick as I try to get caught back up before again heading out of town for the week. In a nutshell, we were about in the middle on Nine Lives and slightly optimistic on Suicide Squad. As usual, I totaled all predicts (18 for Nine Lives, 21 for Suicide Squad) and here are the results: Nine Lives Mean: 8.4M Median: 7.9M StnDev: 3.35M (revised StnDev: 3.1M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 42.35% High: 20M Low: 5.7M BO.com 6.5M Deadline 9.5M MovieWeb 13.1M ShowBuzzDaily 7.5M Variety 9M Suicide Squad Mean: 137.8M Median: 137.6M StnDev: 17.12M (revised StnDev: 15.51) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 12.44% High: 190M Low: 105M BO.com 133M Deadline 140M MovieWeb 145.6M ShowBuzzDaily 130.5M Variety 132.5M

Bad Moms Prediction: 23.3M +/- 8.09M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 23.817M (off by 0.5M, so 0.06 stndev) Bullseye of a predict. Darn nice job. Also easily the best predict of the sites. MovieWeb is back to their old ways, predicting 14.6M. Best predict was YourMother at 23.4M. abc abc Jason Bourne Prediction: 49.2M +/- 6.09M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 59.215M (off by 10M, so 1.64 stndev) Ah, well. We had a nice streak going there, but it came crashing to a halt. And as an added minus we were the worst of the sites. EthanHunt was best predict at 61M abcabc abcabc Nerve Prediction: 6M +/- 2.24M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 9.445M (off by 3.4M, so 1.54 stndev) Ugh. Almost a carbon copy of Bourne. Bad result, and we were the worst predict on top of it. Darn. Best predict was, again, YourMother at 9.5M. Nicely done.

Sorry, its been a very rough week. I'll get everything caught up on Monday.

Interesting audience reaction to SP tonight. Lots of laughs, but also lots of disturbed silence from different parts of the theater. Its a great movie, but I'm fearful that its going to be too far out of the comfort zone for too many people to really break out.

Dammit! Forgot again! edit - However, I suspect were mostly just playing forsecond at this point.

Florence Foster Jenkins 5.8M Pete's Dragon 28.8M Sausage Party 22.8M This prediction is brought to you buy Ocean's Ocho and the number 8.

Technically summer has a few more weeks, but Suicide Squad felt like the last big blockbuster of the summer. This week, we get what will probably be the last movies with any kind of "summer" feel to them, so I'm going to start my mourning for the end of a really fun time of year. So, get your hankies out and to some predicting. Please provide your 8/12-14 Opening Weekend predicts for, Florence Foster Jenkins Pete's Dragon Sausage Party Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Abstain, for now.

I've been telling you guys for months, abstaining early and often is the route to victory.

Paper Towns also had the distinction of having been our single worst OW projection for quite some time and I think its still in the top 3 or so.

Go Team Mystic! I'm only level 17, tho.

I the Germans actually fought like that in WW2, the Maginot Line would have been an impregnable fortress and the war would have been over in a matter of days.

Yep. How are you surprised by this? You know you'd sell Tele up the river in a Heartbeat if the positions were reversed.

I actually kinda thought Fury sucked.

Perhaps it rounded down to zero.

So, Nine Lives preview #s! Did I miss them? I'm waiting with morbid curiosity.

$11.75

Isnt WB historically a little slow with numbers anyway?

I think you just lowered your expectations after BvS.

1. Will Suicide Squad make more than $100M OW? *YES* 2. Will Suicide Squad make more than $125M OW? 2000 *YES* 3. Will Suicide Squad make more than $150M OW? *NO* 4. Will Nine Lives make less than $12M OW? *YES* 5. Will Nine Lives make less than $9M OW? 3000 *YES* 6. Will Nine Lives make less than $6M OW? *NO* 7. Will Suicide Squad make more in Thursday preview than Nine Lives does the whole weekend? *YES* 8. Will Bourne drop more than 58.2%? *NO* 9. Will Star Trek stay above Bad Moms? 2000 *NO* 10. WIll Ice Age stay above Lights Out AND Ghostbusters? *YES* 11. Will SLOP remain in the top 5? 3000 *YES* 12. Will Dory increase more than 36% on Saturday? *YES* 13. Will Mike and Dave have a higher percentage drop than Central Intelligence? *YES* 14. Will the Purge make more than $250k this weekend? *YES* 15. Will Nerve make $5M this weekend? *YES* 16. Will Ice Age have a PTA above $1,850? 2000 *NO* 17. Will Tarzan stay above the Hilary thing? *NO* 18. Will any film in the top 15 increase? *NO* 19. Will Cafe Society stay in the top 12? 3000 *YES* 20. Am I going to mistakenly lock this thread far too early because UK time confuses me? *Not a chance. You're not any more confused in the UK than you normally are." 14/20 - 2000 15/20 - 3000 16/20 - 5000 17/20 - 7000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2: 1. What will Suicide Squad make OW? 5000 127M 2. What will Lights Out Sunday be? 5000 1.6M 3. Divide Suicide Squad's OW total by Nine Lives' OW total. (so if SS makes $50M and 9L makes $25M, the answer is 2). 5000 19.6 Part 3. 3. Bad Moms 5. Pets 7. Ice Age 9. Nerve 12. Cafe Society 15. Mike and Dave

K, Im traveling for a few days and wont be able to put this together until Monday, so deadline is midnight eastern time, US tonight. Nine - 8.4M SS - 127M

1000 Will Suicide Squad outgross Green Lantern? *YES* 2000 Will Suicide Squad outgross Batman Begins? *YES* 4000 Will Suicide Squad outgross Batman Vs Superman? *NO* 8000 Will Suicide Squad have 3 or more weeks at number 1? *YES* - Life Saver 12000 Will Suicide Squad drop more than 55% on week 2? *YES* 16000 Will Suicide Squad gross more between August 19th and the end of the game than Ben Hur makes? *YES* - Cut-Short 20000 Will Suicide Squad gross more than $400M? *NO* 24000 How many new releases on August 26th will have a larger weekend gross than Suicide Squad? *VOID* 28000 How many days will Suicide Squad make more than $20M (1 day margin for error allowed)? 32000 Will Suicide gross more than $750M Worldwide by the end of the game? 40000 Will Suicide Squad have a 65% of more weekend drop before the end of the game? 48000 Where will Suicide Squad rank on the worldwide gross list for films containing a Batman Character by the end of the game? 64000 Will Suicide Squad still be in the top 6 in the last weekend of the game?

Ghostbusters is currently 7th, right? So, assuming SS doesn't completely crash and burn, Bourne should be 7th after this weekend. Barring sheer insanity from Pete's Dragon or Sausage Party, the final 7 will probably go something like: 1) CW 2) Dory 3) SS 4) SLOP 5) X-Men 6) Star Trek 7) Bourne The only real change I can see is if the shaky reviews pull SS under SLOP.