Wrath

2.8M

1. Will Incarnate open to less than $7.5m? *YES* 2. Will Incarnate open to Less than $5m? 3000 *YES* 3. Will Incarnate open in the top 5? *NO* 6. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 52.5%? *YES* 7. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 55%? *YES* 8. Will Jackie have a PTA above $30,000? *YES* 9. Will Jackie have a PTA above $45,000? 2000 *YES* 10. Will anything drop less than 38% without increasing in theatres? *NO* 12. Will Rules Don't Apply drop more than 70%? *YES* 14. Will Arrival remain in the top 5? *YES* 20. Will Incarnate take advantage of its prime spot of having no big competing new releases and storm its way to a 3 figure OW? *Who knows? I've dubbed this week "Nap Week".*

1. Will Incarnate open to less than $7.5m? *YES* 2. Will Incarnate open to Less than $5m? 3000 *YES* 3. Will Incarnate open in the top 5? *NO* 4. Will Moana drop more than 52.5%? *YES* 5. Will Moana drop more than 55%? 2000 *YES* 6. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 52.5%? *YES* 7. Will Fantastic Beasts drop more than 55%? *YES* 8. Will Jackie have a PTA above $30,000? *YES* 9. Will Jackie have a PTA above $45,000? 2000 *YES* 10. Will anything drop less than 38% without increasing in theatres? *NO* 11. Will Allied stay above Trolls? *YES* 12. Will Rules Don't Apply drop more than 70%? *YES* 13. Will Almost Christmas cross $40M? 3000 *YES* 14. Will Arrival remain in the top 5? *YES* 15. Will at least 2 films increase more than 200% on Friday? *YES* 16. Will any film drop less than 35% on Sunday? 2000 *YES* 17. Will Edge of Seventeen have a PTA above $1000? *YES* 18. Will Boo stay above Miss Peregine? 3000 *YES* 19. Will Bad Santa stay above ALmost Christmas? *NO* 20. Will Incarnate take advantage of its prime spot of having no big competing new releases and storm its way to a 3 figure OW? *Who knows? I've dubbed this week "Nap Week".* Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 3000 16/20 5000 17/20 7000 18/20 10000 19/20 14000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Dr Stange's Weekend Gross 5.8M 2. Predict Incarnate's Saturday total 1.2M 3. What will Jackie's PTA be? 88K Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 4. Allied 6. Trolls 9. Manchester by the Sea 12. Edge of Seventeen 15. Nocturnal Animals 18. Rules Don't Apply

Yeah, worked out great for me. Tying for 19th ftw.

At the time, I thought "How Far I'll Go" was the big song of the movie, but "You're Welcome" has actually stuck with me more.

No, I have no idea what happened with the formatting. I mean, yes, I can see that there was some sort of nesting of the weird quote-formatting going on, but I don't know why or how it happened. Next time I'm going to try a little harder to avoid that.

They said this thread was no more. They said it had ceased to be. It had rung down the curtains and joined the choir invisible. That if it hadn't been nailed to its perch it would be pushing up the daisies. But it turns out, it was just pining for the fjords. Time for some catch-up. It'll be a little abbreviated. I mean, the individual ones. Overall it'll be a bit lengthy. Now that we're caught up, time to start again. Light Between Oceans Prediction: 5.5M +/- 1.26M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 4.766M (off by 0.7M, so 0.58 stndev) Pretty decent predict. Only Deadline provided a predict and we did better, so that's nice. Hiccup23 was closest predict at 4.9M. Morgan Prediction: 7M +/- 1.69M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 2.01M (off by 5.0M, so 2.94 stndev) Just terrible, just like Morgan's BO. Again, only Deadline predicted and this time we did worse. ThatOneGuy had the least-wrong predict at 5.5M. Sully Prediction: 21.4M +/- 2.91M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 35.03M (off by 13.7M, so 4.69 stndev) Ouch! Confident in our predict AND way off. A bad combination. On the bright side, everyone underestimated this one, though we were lower than everyone except Deadline. Closest predict was 27.5M by the avatar of optimism, mahnamahna. When the Bough Breaks Prediction: 20M +/- 3.13M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 14.2M (off by 5.8M, so 1.86 stndev) Bad but, unlike the last couple, at least not catastrophically bad. Closest predict was 13.5M by the prince of pessimism, mahnamahna. Wild Life Prediction: 3.43M +/- 0.8M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 3.34M (off by 0.1M, so 0.11 stndev) Wow, go us. Fantastic predict, and far closer than anyone else. Best predict was 3.163M by Blankments. Blair Witch Prediction: 23.89M +/- 4.46M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 9.58M (off by 14.3M, so 3.21 stndev) AND we're back to catastrophically bad. We were pretty much in the pack so everyone missed around as badly as we did. Least bad predict was 16M by DAJK. Bridget Jones Prediction: 15M +/- 2.48M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 8.57M (off by 6.4M, so 2.59 stndev) Ugh. Maybe I should have just let these sleeping dogs lie. Once again, we were pretty close to the group so it was nearly as bad a miss for everyone else as it was for us, but it was still bad. Best predict was Blankments at 10.502M. Hillsong Prediction: 3.13M +/- 1.53M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 1.36M (off by 1.8M, so 1.16 stndev) Not good but at least not terrible. Most others didn't bother putting in a predict for Hillsong so normally I might have just bailed on this one. DAJK was again the best predictor at 2.18M Snowden Prediction: 6.19M +/- 1.36M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 8M (off by 1.8M, so 1.33 stndev) Not a win, but at least not a disaster. There was a wide range of predicts among the sites and we were roughly in the middle in terms of accuracy. Best predict was by MaxMoser3 who nailed it at 8 exactly. Magnificent Seven Prediction: 40.6M +/- 6.5M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 34.7M (off by 5.9M, so 0.91 stndev) Not bad at all. A 0.91 miss on a blockbuster (supposedly, anyway) is normally pretty bad, but people were pretty optimistic and we were actually one of the closer predicts (BO.com was at 51M, for example). Best predict was 35.4M by Hiccup23. Storks Prediction: 35.8M +/- 3.83M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 21.3M (off by 14.5M, so 3.79 stndev) Woof. Back to terrible again. On the bright side, everyone else was also terrible including BO.com who were even higher than us. Shockingly, MovieWeb.com who is usually comically terrible in their predicts, was the only site to get this right. Ethan Hunt was our best predict at 26M. Deepwater Horizon Prediction: 26M +/- 3.93M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 20.22M (off by 5.8M, so 1.47 stndev) Normally, I'd rank this result as "disappointing" but after so many bad misses it doesn't feel too bad. Unfortunately, we were also the most optimistic so everyone else was closer. Oh well. Predicting the future is a tough game. Best predict was 20M by Alison23 in what was her (I'm assuming its a her) first week of predicts. A belated "nicely done". Masterminds Prediction: 6.1M +/- 2.14M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 6.54M (off by 0.4M, so 0.21 stndev) Hurray! A genuinely good predict. Nicely done. And as a bonus we were the second closest predict at ShowBuzzDaily which apparently celebrated this win by ending their weekly predictions. Which was a darn shame, because by my math they were actually the best at predicting OW results, even better than BO.com. Our best predict was 6.6M by spaghetti. Miss Peregrine's School Prediction: 25.5M +/- 6.81M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 28.87M (off by 3.4M, so 0.49 stndev) Nice to end the catch-up with a solid predict. Well done, everyone. Best predict was 28.6M by DAJK who was on a bit of a roll, there.

Boom. Caught back up (didn't catch the weeks I missed entirely, just the ones where I asked for predicts), post will be up shortly. I'm sad about missing some good weeks, but better late than never. At least I'm back in time for a really... umm, brief weekend of releases. Well, always a good idea to start out slow. Otherwise, might pull something. Please provide your 11/2 - 11/4 Opening Weekend predicts for, Incarnate Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

This is an amazing post and is the exact kind of thing that makes this place so great. I'm sad I can only "like" it once.

"No, you don't understand. ITS GOING TO GET THERE." Edit - Also, wow for FB. *Over* 45M? That's one rampantly badass hold right there. Pity about Moana. Hopefully the legs will be strong.

I don't think you're going to need to worry too much about that.

I'm a little bummed out for Moana because I liked that movie a lot, but seeing FB kick so much ass kinda makes up for it. I know its crazy talk, but I think the FB-series is going to end up being at least as significant as the HP series if not more so. Weightier and more adult in theme, so they probably won't do as well overall at the BO, but at least as impactful on popular culture.

I'm putting the fatted calf on the altar as we speak.

Yeah, but we're going to end up with like 4 (well, maybe 3 since Moana's got a shot at $300M), so that's at least in the ballpark of normal. Its just that they're weirdly distributed this year.

My personal "Top X of 2016" isn't coming together in a satisfactory fashion and I think I've figured out why. My movie watching has been weird this year. I don't feel like I've seen fewer movies than usual (I probably average ~40/year in the cinema), but I've definitely seen fewer Indie/low-distribution+critically-acclaimed flicks and more popcorn movies. I think its that I've seen more movies with the kids and fewer with my wife than my usual ratio. My gut feeling is that at least part of the reason is that its been a banner year for high quality popcorn flicks. That, and I really need to see Manchester by the Sea.

Good for you. There's no harm in getting the ball rolling and there's at least a chance of a lot to gain. Putting off seeing a movie for a few days is a small price to pay.

And where to find them...

Jesus Christ! My strategy lately has been to just read the answers of people who are actually good at the weeklies, see which answer they mostly gave, and then write that. Clearly, I can't even cheat right. Argh.

1. Will Moana open to more than $55m? *YES* 2. Will Moana open to more than $65m? 3000 *NO* 3. Will Moana open to more than $75m? *NO* 4. Will Allied open to more than $12m? *YES* 5. Will Allied open to more than $15m? 2000 *NO* 6. Will Bad Santa Open to more than $12.5M? *NO* 7. Will Bad Santa open to more than $15M? *NO* 8. Will Rules don't apply open to less than $5M? 2000 *YES* 9. Will Rules don't apply open to less than $3M? *NO* 10. Will the four biggest new Openers combine to more than $100M? *NO* 11. Will the four biggest new Openers have a combined total gross of more than $140M by the end of Sunday? *NO* 12. Will Lion have a PTA above $20,000? *YES* 13. Will at least 2 films in the top 10, increase by more than 10%? 3000 *NO* 14. Will Trolls remain in the top 5? *YES* 15. Will Dr. Strange cross $200m by the end of the weekend? *YES* 16. Will fantastic Beasts drop less than 47.5%? 2000 *NO* 17. Will Hacksaw Ridge stay in the top 8? *YES* 18. Will Inferno have a weekend below $200k? 3000 *NO* 19. Will Boo stay above Jack Reacher? *YES* 20. Will the 4D showing of Moana give us the chance to smell what Maoi is cooking? *YES, and props because that's a great question* Bonus: 14/20 2000 15/20 3000 16/20 5000 17/20 7000 18/20 10000 19/20 14000 20/20 20000 Part 2: Closest predictor wins 5000 points (Added bonus: If prediction is within 10% win 6000; 5% 7000; 2.5% 9000; 1% 12000) 1. Predict Moana's total gross at end of Sunday 100M 2. Predict The accountant's percentage change (If direction is not stated, I will assume the prediction is for it to drop not increase). -32% 3. What will be the difference between Bad Santa's Friday gross and Almost Christmas' 3 day gross? 2.8M Part 3: Predict the films that place in the following positions: 3. Allied 5. Trolls 8. Hacksaw 10. Rules 12. Moonlight 16. Shut-in

Oh, right! I totally forgot about this. I'm game to play it again.

I feel like they might have already shot their wad in terms of great marketing moments for Sing. At first I thought it had a puncher's chance of beating Moana, but he last trailer was definitely a step down from the first one. Its not going to suffer Storks fate (dramatically underachieving what it should have done due to crappy marketing), but I agree that SLOP is probably safe.

Cars 1 was a fun story and worth watching, though its probably the most skippable of the Pixar movies. Except Cars 2, of course, which is without question the worst movie Pixar has ever made. Cars 3... That trailer. Wow. Not what I expected.

Pot A: Moana Pot B: Resident Evil Pot C: (bigger drop is the winner) Fifty Shades 2nd Weekend Drop Pot D: Allied Total Gross Pot E: Sing Worldwide Gross Pot F: (Win or lose doesn't matter, just number of noms) La La Land Oscar Nominations

Happy Birthday!

Having your balls blown off would be life-changing, but not in a direction in which I'd like to go.