Wrath

Am I the 2000 Wrath or the 30000 Wrath? Enquiring minds want to know.

Whew. TMNT getting bumped out will at least serve to keep the final scores a little closer.

Didn't Morgan already actually open a couple weeks ago? I thought it was just going wide this weekend.

These questions are only for people who have missed at least one set of questions: 1. Will Suicide Squad make more than $6M? *YES* 2. Will Suicide Squad make more than $7.2M? *YES* 3. Will Mechanic stay in the top 8? *NO* 4. Will Ben Hur stay above SLOP? *NO* 5. Will bad Moms have all 3 days over $1M? *YES* 6. Will film will have the highest percentage drop in the top 12? *Mechanic* 7. Will Suicide Squad pass $297M by the end of the weekend? *NO* 8. Will Florence have a PTA above $1,750? *YES* 9. Will any film drop less than 10% on Sunday? *NO* 10. Will Dory increase more than 65% on Saturday? *YES* 11. Will Southside with you make over $2M this weekend? *NO* 12. Will Ghostbusters stay above Ice Age? *NO* 13. Will the Light between Oceans have a $3.5M or higher Friday? *YES* 14. Will Naan Hai Akira have a PTA above $2,250? *NO* 15. Are you glad that this is the final question of the summer? no. :*( 12/15 - 2000 13/15 - 3000 14/15 - 5000 15/15 - 8000 Placements: 3. Kubo 6. Pete 8. War Dogs 10. Bad Moms 18. Greater 3/5 - 2000 4/5 - 5000 5/5 - 8000

1. Will Light between oceans Open to more than $7M? *NO* 2. Will Light Between Oceans Open to more than $9M? 2000 *NO* 3. Will Morgan make more than $5M? *YES* 4. Will Morgan make more than $7M? *NO* 5. Will Don't Breathe make more than $11m? *YES* 6. Will Don't Breathe make more than $13m? *YES* 7. Will the top three films combine to more than $25m? 3000 *YES* 8. Will Suicide Squad stay in the top 3? 2000 *YES* 9. Will Sausage Party fall more than 40%? 3000 *YES* 10. Will Yoga Hosers have a PTA above $3,000? *NO* 11. Will Klown forever have a PTA above $1,500? *YES* 12. Will Mechanic stay above War Dogs? *NO* 13. Will Bad mom's cross $100M on or before Saturday? *YES* 14. Will Hell or High water stay in the top 12? *YES* 15. Will SLOP have a higher percentage drop than Kubo? 2000 *YES* 16. Will Jason Bourne have a higher PTA than Pete's Dragon? *YES* 17. Will Lights Out drop more than 60%? 3000 *NO* 18. Will Under the Sea 3D cross $35,090,000? *NO* 19. Will Jungle Book ever stop being in American cinemas? *Nope. Regal is having having copies of the movie tattooed onto all their screens as we speak.* 20. Was it confusing for the fake out bonus questions to be in 19th place and not here? *Not at all. And I do feel fine.* 14/20 - 2000 15/20 - 3000 16/20 - 5000 17/20 - 7000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 1. Yoga Hosers' OW be? 5000 1.7M 2. What Hands of Stone's PTA be? 5000 1,245 3. What film will make closest to $2,000,000 this weekend? 5000 Ben-Hur Part 3 2. Suicide Squad 4. Morgan 7. Sausage 9. Bad Moms 12. SLOP 15. Florence

As a fun trivia bit, we posted our worst-ever miss on Southside (6.04 standard deviations off), so its a good thing it got erased. Sadly, it was still a weak week for us. Don't Breathe Prediction: 18M +/- 3.3M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 26.41M (off by 8.4M, so 2.55 stndev) Just terrible. On the bright side, no one was particularly close, and Deadline and Variety were catastrophically off whereas we were merely terrible. Best predict was Mahnamahna at 24.5M. abcabcabcabc abcabcabcabc Hands of Stone Prediction: 1M +/- 0.43M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 1.75M (off by 0.8M, so 1.74 stndev) Not as terrible as Don't Breathe, but still pretty bad. On the bright side, we were actually the 2nd best predict because everyone else was too high. MovieWeb.com predicted 9.4M. I'm pretty sure they don't look at screen count at all when making their predicts. Our best predict was Arlborn at 1.7M abcabc abcabc abcabc abcabc Mechanic: Resurrection Prediction: 6M +/- 1.43M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 7.456M (off by 1.5M, so 1.02 stndev) Almost, but not quite, an acceptably accurate predict. Sadly, we were the least accurate except for MovieWeb.com's 12.1M. Our best predict was DAJK at 7.7M.

Argh. I had this all typed up and ready on Friday but I forgot to actually click "Submit". Welcome to the end of summer, where the movies suck and everyone takes a nap. Same thing happened last year. Also, I'm dumping Southside because almost no one else predicted it thanks to the late decision to take it wide. As usual, I totaled all predicts (9 for Don't Breathe and Mechanic, 5 for Southside and Hands of Stone. 5 is a new all-time record for fewest predicts for a movie, beating out "Meet the Blacks" at 7) and here are the results: Don't Breathe Mean: 18.3M Median: 18M StnDev: 3.30M (revised StnDev: 3.46M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 18.32% High: 24.5M Low: 14.2M BO.com 20M Deadline 12.75M MovieWeb 15.6M ShowBuzzDaily 18.5M Variety 12M Hands of Stone Mean: 1.2M Median: 1M StnDev: 0.43M (revised StnDev: 2.53) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 43.07% High: 1.7M Low: 0.75M BO.com 2M Deadline 2.75M MovieWeb 9.4M ShowBuzzDaily 2.5M Variety 3M Mechanic: Ressurection Mean: 5.8M Median: 6M StnDev: 1.43M (revised StnDev: 2.03) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.83% High: 7.7M Low: 3.3M BO.com 6.75M Deadline 7M MovieWeb 12.1M ShowBuzzDaily 7.5M Variety 7M

Big Fish always deserves a shout-out. Amazing visually, and it make me weep like a baby at the finish. Plus, its basically the relationship my dad had with his father, minus the death-bed reconciliation. So, for me, there's that as well.

FYI, an answer like that is totally fine. I'll interpret it at a 5.5m for each.

And so the summer ends with a whimper. Don't the studios know that while many US schools are back in session, the official end of summer doesn't arrive until 9/21, and even the unofficial end (Labor Day) still hasn't quite arrived yet? Shouldn't we still be swimming in block-busters? In the future, this will apparently be so (as the 2017 movie scheduling tells us), but in 2016, we're SOL. In the meantime, we can just philosophize over whether we'd appreciate summer as much if it wasn't immediately followed by such garbage, and whether its in fact doing us a small but selfless service. As a fun trivia note, this weeks' new wide opening/expanding movies will be in fewer theaters, combined, than Pete's Dragon was when it opened. In the meantime, we shall predict, because predicting is what we do. Please provide your 9/2-4 Opening Weekend predicts for, The Light Between Oceans Morgan (it opened already, but its going wide this weekend) Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Saw Trek again Saturday night, and I was startled to see the theater 75% full. Plus, they were into it. Loud laughter at most of the jokes, cheering, etc. Was really a fun crowd. Have the Trek movies historically had good legs?

You're teaching him to be the house, right?

Ben-Hur Prediction: 13.12M +/- 4.29M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 11.2M (off by 1.9M, so 0.45 stndev) This would have been a weak predict (and was the weakest of the sites), but we correctly called that we had no idea what we were talking about, had a huge Ratio and ended up with a decent predict after all. There's plenty of ways to skin a cat! Best predict was MaxMoser3 at 11M. abcabcabc abcabcabc Kubo and the Two Strings Prediction: 14.368M +/- 1.92M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 12.61M (off by 1.8M, so 0.92 stndev) Not a great predict, especially thanks to the unusually low Ratio, but not terrible and we managed to be slightly lower (and thus better) than average. MaxMoser3 again is the closest, but this time he tied with Ethan Hunt at 13M. abc abc abc abc War Dogs Prediction: 17M +/- 3.92M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 14.69M (off by 2.3M, so 0.59 stndev) Mediocre but not bad, though we were worse than most other sites as our optimism proved unwarranted. Filmlover was the closest predict at 15M, as MaxMoser3 merely comes in a close second (14M) and fails to sweep the week.

Huge Ratio for Ben-Hur, meaning we were not in the slightest confident about our slightly optimistic and higher than everyone else (except the lovably nutty MovieWeb.com) prediction. Kubo, on the other hand, we were slightly pessimistic on, but extremely confident about it for an OW at that level. War Dogs we were optimistic on, with roughly an average level of confidence. As usual, I totaled all predicts (13 for everything) and here are the results: Ben-Hur Mean: 14.1M Median: 13.12M StnDev: 4.29M (revised StnDev: 3.94M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 32.70% High: 21M Low: 8M BO.com 13M Deadline 11.5M MovieWeb 19.6M ShowBuzzDaily 12.5M Variety 12.5M Kubo and the Two Strings Mean: 15.1M Median: 14.368M StnDev: 1.92M (revised StnDev: 1.83) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 13.37% High: 20M Low: 13M BO.com 15M Deadline 13.5M MovieWeb 16.1M ShowBuzzDaily 15.7M Variety 12M War Dogs Mean: 17.5M Median: 17M StnDev: 3.92M (revised StnDev: 3.60) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.06% High: 23.7M Low: 11M BO.com 16M Deadline 13.5M MovieWeb 17.4M ShowBuzzDaily 15.2M Variety 13M

1. Will Mechanic Open to more than $8M? *NO* 2. Will Mechanic Open to more than $11M? 2000 *NO* 3. Will Don't Breathe Open to more than $7M? *YES* 4. Will Don't Breathe open to more than $10M? *YES* 5. Will Hands of Stone open to more than $4M? *NO* 6. Will Hands of Stone open to more than $6.5M? *NO* 7. Will Suicide Squad remain in first place? 3000 *NO* 8. Will the three main new releases combine to more than $22M? 2000 *YES* 9. How many films will make more than $9M this weekend? 3000 *2* 10. Will Greater have a PTA above $2,000? *NO* 11. Will Level Up have a PTA above $3,500? *YES* 12. Will Sausage Party stay in the top 3? *YES* 13. Will War Dogs stay above Kubo? *NO* 14. WillSausage Party pass $80M domestic by Sunday? *YES* 15. Will Pete's Dragon stay above Ben Hur? *YES* 16. Will Jason Bounre fall more than 34,5% on Sunday? *NO* 17. Will Bad Moms remain in the top 10? 3000 *YES* 18. Will Star Trek drop more than 44%? *NO* 19. Will SLOP have the lowest percentage drop in the top 15 excluding any film that increases? 2000 *NO* 20. Does the Mechanic need some added shark punching action in order to truly break out? *I don't there's anything you could have added that would have made it break out.* 14/20 - 2000 15/20 - 3000 16/20 - 5000 17/20 - 7000 18/20 - 9000 19/20 - 12000 20/20 - 15000 Part 2 1. What will MEchanic's OW be? 5000 5.8M 2. What Ben Hur's PTA be? 5000 1,785 3. What will the fifth placed film gross this weekend? 5000 7.4M Part 3 1. Don't Breathe 3. Sausage Party 5. War Dogs 8. Bad Moms 11. SLOP 15. Hands of Stone

This looks irksome, but having missed a few weeks of questions an a SotM or two already, I'll roll the dice. 1. Jungle Book 2. Pete 3. Mechanic 4. Don't Breathe 5. Finding Dory 6. Lights Out 7. Hell or High Water 8. Central Intelligence 9. Suicide Squad 10. Ghostbusters

Ok, I'm extending the deadline on this to Friday at 9am US Eastern time. Also: Don't Breathe 21M Hands of Stone 750K Mechanic: Resurrection 6.2M Southside with You 600K

A whopping 806 theaters for Southside!

And I'm finally back in town (a little later than expected. Sorry I'm late this week, again), just in time for the fun times to finally end. But the predicting goes on, and we've got 4 wide opens this week (yes, really. A phrase which is going to come up a lot in the coming weeks), so lets get going. Please provide your 8/26-28 Opening Weekend predicts for, Don't Breath Hands of Stone Mechanic: Resurrection Southside with You Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

Wait, there are still people who take what BKB says seriously?

1. No 2. No 3. No 4. Yes 5. No 6. No 7. Yes 8. Yes 9. No 10. Yes 11. Yes 12. No 13. Yes 14. Yes 15. Yes 16. Yes 17. Yes 18. No 19. Yes 20. They are COMPLEX ramblings, sir. 1. 13.5m 2. 60.1% 3. 5.8m 2. Sausage 4. Ben-Hur 7. Bad Moms 10. Star Trek 12. Nine Lives 15. Ghost busters

That certainly wasn't the case here, Sausage Party's credits were surprisingly brief. A buddy and I stayed to the end of the credits, and we both commented at the same time how short the credits ran.

Ben-Hur 18.5M Kubo and the Two Strings 14.3M War Dogs 17.8M

In a hurry, so less time-wasting banter than usual. Please provide your 8/19-21 Opening Weekend predicts for, Ben-Hur Kubo and the Two Strings War Dogs Deadline this week will be Thursday afternoon (US Eastern time), whenever I get to it. Note that we will be using our median predict rather than our mean predict going forward.

I'm a little tight on time, so I'm going to put this up and then come back and edit once the actuals are all in. Florence Foster Jenkins Prediction: 7.765M +/- 2.8M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 6.601M (off by 1.2M, so 0.42 stndev) A good predict, though we were at best about in the middle of everyone else. Our best predict was Cannastop at 6.5M abcabc abcabc Pete's Dragon Prediction: 28.8M +/- 6.68M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 21.51M (off by 7.3M, so 1.09 stndev) Ugh. Not terrible but not good, either. Just on the wrong side of acceptable, though we were roughly in the middle of the pack overall. Best predict was also our Low predict, which was 23M by Krissykins. Sausage Party Prediction: 23.26M +/- 4.03M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 34.26M (off by 11.0M, so 2.73 stndev) Ow. Just terrible. We went low and it substantially beat expectations. Our best predict was also our High predict, which was 29M by MaxMoser3.