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Everything posted by Wrath
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Chas' Box Office Summer Game | We Have a Winner: Congratulations to DamienRoc on a game well Played. Special mention to darkelf as the runner up and Chewy into 3rd (had a fantastic pre-season score!) | Ya all come for the winter game ya here!
Wrath replied to chasmmi's topic in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game
Yeah, that week was hilarious. I think I abstained so I didnt pay much attention to everyone's answers so I didnt realize everyone was trying to be wrong. When the results came in below expectations I was happy because I assumed everyone was screwed. But since everyone was TRYING to be wrong, people still got really good scores by accidentally getting them all right. -
Watterson will never, ever go for it. He's got more money than he can spend, is rabidly publicity phobic, and is vehemently against commercializing his work. It took a decade of work to get him to agree to an *interview*. Its like Moore with Watchmen. No matter what you did, they'd hate the fact that you were doing it at all.
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Dammit! All my answers went poof and this is such a pita to do on a phone. Argh. 1. Y 2. Y 3, Y 4. Y 5. Y 6. N 7. N 8. 3 9. Y 10. N 11. N 12. N 13. Sat 14. Y 15. Y 16. N 17. N 18. N 19. Y 20. Y 21. Y 22. Y 23. Y 24. Y 25. I'm too disappointed in you to respond. 1. 18m 2. 49.5% 3. 406.5m 3. Conjuring 5. Warcraft 7. Me before you 10. Alice 13. Live and Friendship 15. Nice Guys
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And as a result, Chewy moved on despite the lowest score of anyone who answered the questions. I hope the better grades, brighter career, higher lifetime earnings and a life more filled with knowledge were worth it. Edit - Usually Ive looked through a ton of stuff and have lots of data at this point, but I wont even be back to my computer until Sunday so I seriously feel blind.
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BOT user predicts 6/17-19 - Central Intelligence, Finding Dory
Wrath replied to Wrath's topic in Box Office Discussion
Deadline will be 5 pm, US eastern time. Roughly. -
BOT user predicts 6/17-19 - Central Intelligence, Finding Dory
Wrath replied to Wrath's topic in Box Office Discussion
Central Intelligence - 34.5m Finding Dory - 128m -
I'm traveling and am stuck using my phone until Sunday, so no number crunching until next Monday. But this is hardly a week we can let slip through the cracks! So, please post your weekend predicts for new openers for 6/17-19: Central Intelligence Finding Dory Dealine will be sometime Thursday afternoon, but I wont be posting aggregates until Monday. As before, our official predict is the mean of our results.
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Chas' Box Office Summer Game | We Have a Winner: Congratulations to DamienRoc on a game well Played. Special mention to darkelf as the runner up and Chewy into 3rd (had a fantastic pre-season score!) | Ya all come for the winter game ya here!
Wrath replied to chasmmi's topic in Chasmmi's Infamous Box Office Game
I'm liking this SotM more than I expected. -
I know there are people out there who don't like GotG, but I simply can't fathom it. A couple weeks ago, we were thinking of staying home and watching a movie with the kids and Mrs Wrath's first suggestion was GotG. To be fair, she knows that the kids and I both loved it, but she (not usually a fan of action movies) commented that she actually thought it was fun to watch. I suspect she just thinks Chris Pratt is cute, but I'm fine with any excuse to watch that movie.
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BOT User Tracking 6/10-12 Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Warcraft
Wrath replied to Wrath's topic in Box Office Discussion
I was a prot pally tank (and fairly active theorycrafter) in a semi-serious raiding guild from Burning Crusade through Cataclysm, and took over as GL for a while after that. Only finally quit raiding at the end of Panda-ville, plus both my kids have leveled characters. I've also been a beta tester for everything they've done in the last 10 years, including Overwatch. Believe me, I know how deep its fanbase runs. But I also know how much of its fanbase its LOST. We'll see. As it happens, I'm heading out to see it with the kids + their friends right now... -
Part 1 ~ answer yes/no unless otherwise stated (UOS) and are worth 1000 points each UOS. They also only refer to the top 12 UOS. (Read them carefully ) 1) Will Warcraft open to less than $35M? *YES* 2) Will Warcraft open to less than $27M? 2000 *YES* 3) Will Warcraft open to less than $19M? *NO* 4) Will The Conjuring open to less than $40M? *YES* 5) Will The Conjuring open to less than $32M? *NO* 6) Will The Conjuring open to less than $24M? *NO* 7) The Conjuring open to more than double Warcraft? *NO* 8) Will NYSM2 open to more than $22M? *YES* 9) Will NYSM2 Open to more than Warcraft? 3000 *YES* 10) Will the top 3 positions all be new entries? *YES* 11) Will Xmen stay above Me Before You? *YES* 12) Will Neighbours remain in the top 10? 2000 *NO* 13) Will Jungle Book cross $350M ON Saturday (not before, but on)? *NO* 14) Will Popstar have a weekend below $2M? *YES* 15) Will Civil War have a better Friday increase than Angry Birds? 3000 *YES* 16) Will Kung Fu Panda 3 finish above Deadpool? *YES* 17) Will Zootopis have a low weekend drop than every film that finishes above it (excluding any films that increase)? *NO* 18) Will The Huntsman have a Sunday drop above 31%? *YES* 19) Will Me Before you have a higher PTA within $1,000 of TMNT? 3000 *YES* 20) Will The Lobster drop less than 10% this weekend? *NO* 21) Will BvS stay above the Man who Knew Infinity? *YES* 22) Will Alice Stay above Angry Birds? 2000 *NO* 23) Will any of the 3 big new openers decrease on Saturday? *YES* 24) We me before You drop less than 25% on Sunday? *NO* 25) Will more than 31% of all words written in the upcoming weekend thread be the word: 'China'? *Sadly, no. Maybe we can fix that next week.* Bonuses 18/25 - 2000 19/25 - 4000 20/25 - 6000 21/25 - 9000 22/25 - 12000 23/25 - 15000 24/25 - 20000 25/25 - 25000 Part 2 ~ The closest predictor for each question scores 5000 UOS 1. What will be the combined weekend gross of the three main new openers? 83.5M 2. What will be the difference in dollars between NYSM2 and Warcraft's Saturday Gross? 1.7M 3. What will Popstar's percentage drop be? 58% Part 3 ~ predict which film finishes in the places given. (2000 per film) 1. Conjuring 2 3. Warcraft 5. Me Before You 10. Jungle Book 13. Love & Friendship 15. Lobster
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BOT User Tracking 6/10-12 Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Warcraft
Wrath replied to Wrath's topic in Box Office Discussion
No, in case anyone is curious, I have no idea what happens with the formatting when I do those. I mean, I know its a result of cutting and pasting, but I don't know how to make it stop and I'm not going to type everything out by hand every time. -
BOT User Tracking 6/10-12 Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Warcraft
Wrath replied to Wrath's topic in Box Office Discussion
Deadline dropped the ball this week, apparently so wrapped up in Warcraft's impressive overseas performance that they failed to run a piece on domestic projections. MovieWeb continued its tradition of bizarre predicts for another week, going with 19.5M for Conjuring 2 and 42.3M for Warcraft. To be fair, we had lower predicts for Conjuring 2 and higher for Warcraft, but that's why we do Medians now. Also interesting, I suspect Warcraft is the most uncertain we've ever been on a movie for which we expect a decently high OW. Typically, Ratio is inversely proportional to a movie's expected OW and once you get over 20M or so, its typically in the the 20% kinda range. NYSM 2's 29.90% would be notable high for a movie expected to open over 20M, except that Warcraft is at 42.50%. Conveniently, we tend to do better on movies with higher Ratio's (ie. Movies we have less consensus on its OW total), so maybe that means we'll nail Warcraft. Also, Warcraft probably has the biggest gap between our Mean and Median predictions of any movie we've predicted. Compared to other sites, we're moderately optimistic on Conjuring 2, slightly pessimistic on NYSM 2 (except for MovieWeb's nuttiness), and slightly optimistic on Warcraft. Also, as a reminder, our prediction numbers are now the median result, rather than the mean result, of everyone's picks and revised StnDev is the standard deviation of the predictions, including the other web-sites. As usual, I totaled all predicts (26 for everything) and here are the results: Conjuring 2 Mean: 39.2M Median: 39.5M StnDev: 8.07M (revised StnDev: 10.72M) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 20.44% High: 55.6M Low: 16.7M BO.com 33.5M Deadline MovieWeb 19.5M ShowBuzzDaily 35M Variety 35M Now You See Me 2 Mean: 21.1M Median: 20.7M StnDev: 6.19M (revised StnDev: 7.07) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 29.9% High: 37M Low: 9.2M BO.com 27M Deadline MovieWeb 15.2M ShowBuzzDaily 26.5M Variety 23M Warcraft Mean: 29.5M Median: 26.5M StnDev: 11.26M (revised StnDev: 11.97) Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 42.50% High: 70M Low: 16M BO.com 21M Deadline MovieWeb 42.3M ShowBuzzDaily 23M Variety 25M -
BOT User Tracking 6/10-12 Conjuring 2, Now You See Me 2, Warcraft
Wrath replied to Wrath's topic in Box Office Discussion
Well, the good news is that you're *extremely* unlikely to be our worst predictor, ever.