Wrath

The Splinter was an awesome hitter as well, but there are some other folks in that neighborhood, too. Gehrig is so famous for getting sick that people forget he was 1B to Ruth's 1A offensively, and had 12 consecutive seasons in which he was no worse than 4th in the AL in OB + SLG (1926-1937) and Ruth was still active for the first 9 of those. Plus, Hornsby at around the same time won the Triple Crown twice, once as a shortstop and once as a second baseman, and *led* the NL in OP + SLG 10 times in 12 years. Edit - Yes, I'm done.

No, I disagree with you, its absolutely possible to make a definitive statement!

Fun pro-Bonds factoid: Barry Bonds was *intentionally* walked more times during his career, than Albert Belle or Jim Rice had *total* walks in their careers.

I can tell you that it wasn't Aaron. Amazing player and all, but Atlanta was, by far, the highest altitude baseball stadium until they added Colorado and he played half his career there.

1. Kung Fu Panda 3 2. Ride Along 2 3. 13 Hours

Sometimes you're the windshield, sometimes you're the bug.

Pride and Zombies 50% Yes, really. Not so much that I think it will be big as that I just find it really amusing.

Hopefully I'll get everything back up to date tomorrow, but today's just been too busy. I think other predictors will start coming back around as well now that TFA's totals are slowly falling from absurdly good down merely superlative. Please provide your 1/8 - 10 Opening Weekend predicts for: The Forest The Masked Saint The Revenant (wide) Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

1000 Will Star Wars outgross The Avengers? *YES* 2000 Will Star Wars outgross Titanic? *YES* 4000 Will Star Wars outgross Avatar? *YES* 7000 Will Star Wars outgross Titanic before the end of 2015? *NO* 10000 Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film in January? *YES* 16000 Will Star Wars be the highest grossing film from February 1st to the end of the game? *NO* 20000 Will Star Wars gross more than $875M? *YES* 24000 How many new releases on January 15th will have a larger weekend gross than Star Wars? *VOID* 28000 How many weekends in January (excluding New Years W/E) will Star Wars be Number 1? *Two* - Life Saver 32000 Will Star Wars gross more than $1B? *NO* - Cut Short 40000 Will Star Wars' 2016 winter Game gross be closer to Empires' total gross (290M), A new Hope's ($461M), or Jedi's ($309M) - *EMPIRE* 50000 Will Star Wars gross more in China or the USA over the duration of its Chinese release? 60000 Will Star Wars enter the top 5 on the all time list adjusted for Inflation ($1.13B)? 80000 Will Star Wars have a weekend gross increase in 2016 by the end of the game? 100000 Will Star Wars pass Titanic's Worldwide total by the end of the game?

I'm behind on a bunch of stuff because of the holiday, but I'll get to last week's results when I can. We didn't do terribly well, but Daddy's Home was a sight to see. This week's a wee bit quicker to get through. Unfortunately, most other predictors seem to have taken the week off what with the holiday and all. As usual, I went through the various predicts (10 for Hateful Eight, one of our quieter weekends in a while. Just one movie, and after a pair of interesting weekends so not surprising) and here's what we ended up with: Hateful Eight Mean: 27.4M Median: 25.8M StnDev: 4.78M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.47% High: 36M Low: 22.4M BO.com 25M Deadline ScreenRant.com Variety Entertainment Weekly

Hateful Eight 24.7M

Billy Zane was not a great villain. In fact, I'm hard pressed to think of a great anything that he's been. Ok, he was a great band front-man in Almost Famous, but that's really it. I thought Colonel Quaritch was a pretty decent villain in Avatar, though. I mean, he certainly wasn't a great villain, but at least he was a pretty good one and a first rate scenery chewer. He might have been the only person who actually had to do any acting as themselves (rather than via motion capture) in the entire movie. I just made Wrathette #2 watch Avatar with me a week or two ago in my parenting efforts to bring both kids up to speed on their movie/pop-culture references (Ghostbusters coming up next. I'm excited for that one). The visuals were still pretty great, though the passage of time and seeing it on a TV instead of a gigantic screen made it a less impressive experience. Wrathette #2 commented that it kinda reminded her of the original Tron, which we saw a couple months ago. And I think she has a point. I'm actually a little hesitant to show them the original Jurassic Park now. I loved JP, but I also loved Tron, and watching Tron again made me realize its a slow, ponderous movie with creaky dialogue and hammy acting (except for David Warner who's great) that was totally carried by its groundbreaking visuals. Avatar, though bigger and better, does suffer a bit from that as well. And I'm probably going to pass on watching JP again out of fear I'll realize the same is true for JP.

South Florida has great weather? Maybe 4 months out of the year. The rest of the time its only "great" if you enjoy living in a sauna.

"Hearts of Darkness: a Film Maker's Apocalypse" is fantastic and, imo, better than Apocalypse Now.

Fifty shades 50%

Also, WaterBottle gave me some advice on overcoming my technology incompetence, and I've set up a dropbox with the data I've collected thus far. That way if I get hit by a bus the data won't disappear with me. Link is here: https://www.dropbox.com/s/dc5zjt68cqgk6x6/Movie%20Data%21.xlsx?dl=0 in case anyone is interested. Rest assured, that's not the master copy. I'd prefer people not to screw with it, but if they do it won't be a problem for more than a few days. I'll try to update this at least semi-regularly.

That's about as good as a second weekend gets, and I'm astounded at that Daddy's Home number so its a good time for a cooldown which this weekend is thoughtfully providing. Just one movie this weekend. That having been said, its a wide expansion rather than a new release, its a Thursday release, and its Hateful Eight. So at the very least its about as interesting as a single-movie weekend can be. I've waffled a bit in the past on this, but even though its a Thursday release/expansion on a major holiday we're going to stick with 3-day FFS predicts. Please provide your 1/1 - 3 Opening Weekend predicts for: Hateful Eight (BOM says 1,800) *3-day* Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

Watched it for the second time this afternoon with the kids. Had crappy seats off to the side, right up in front again so I'll have to see it at least one more time. The fun part was that the theater was within a few seats of being full. It obviously wasn't as enthusiastic as the Thursday night crowd, but they still clapped and cheered 4-5 times during the movie. Wild to see crowds still doing that over a week after a movie opens. Edit - Wow. Just realized the sell out count for the weekend is up to about where it was on Wednesday of last week. So, about 1/3 of Sat and Sun shows sold out. That's pretty amazing.

PP2 was amazing, F7 in China was more amazing, and SW7 was most most amazing of all.

ITS NEVER OVER. NEVER EVER EVER. 1. Will Star Wars gross more than $100M this weekend? *YES* 2. Will Star Wars gross more than $130m this weekend? 3000 *YES* 3. Will the 5 biggest new entries' combined grosses exceed 50% of Star Wars' weekend? *NO* 4. What will be the highest grossing new entry (new, not expanding)? 2000 *Daddy's Home* 5. Will Sisters drop more than 15% this weekend? *NO* 6. Will at least 4 films increase this weekend? 2000 *NO* 7. Will Point Break open to more than $9.5M? *NO* 8. Will Good Dinosaur stay in the top 10? *NO* 9. Will Hunger Games stay above Creed? *YES* 10. Will Hateful 8 gross at least 10 times the gross of Revenant this weekend? 3000 *YES* 11. Will the Big Short Increase into the top 3? 2000 *NO* 12. Will Concussion open higher than Joy? *NO* 13. Will Alvin stay in the top 5? 3000 *NO* 14. Will Star Wars' PTA be higher than Revenant's? *NO* 15. Will I have marked the previous 2 weeks' questions before Xmas hits? *Maybe not in this dimension, but I'm sure there's an alternate reality somewhere in which you did.* 10/15 - 2000 11/15 - 3000 12/15 - 5000 13/15 - 7000 14/15 - 10000 15/15 - 15000 Part 2 1. What will be the difference in gross between 1st and 2nd this weekend? 5000 140m 2. What will Krampus' Xmas Day gross be? 5000 900k 3. What will Concussion and Point Break's combined Saturday gross be? 5000 9.3M 4. What will Alvin's percentage change be this weekend (please specify drop or increase)? 5000 -30% 5. What will Hateful 8's PTA be this weekend? 5000 26,500 Part 3 2. Daddy's Home 4. Big Short 6. Sisters 9. Hateful 8 12. Krampus 15. Heart of the Sea

While last week a lot of folks were chickening out on making a predict on a movie so far away from most modeling data (and didn't spare the bandwidth to look at the other new releases), I suspect this week is daunting the predictors for entirely different reasons. 5 new wide films (including The Big Short), Star Wars on pace for a gigantic second weekend, and Sisters and Alvin carrying over reasonably well makes for a really chaotic weekend to predict. I'm sympathetic to their plight. Looking at the other sites predicts, I kinda get the feeling that Deadline, Variety and Entertainment weekly all got their data from the same person, then each tweaked things very slightly based on their own opinions (Variety bumping Joy down slightly, and Deadline bumping Daddy's Home up slightly). Hopefully we can do better than that random person. Our predicts are fairly consistent between the movies, with Big Short, Concussion, and Joy all pretty close, Daddy's Home a bit higher and Point Break a bit lower. The distributions are very similar as well, as the Ratios for everything but Concussion were between 23.59% and 26.85% which is weirdly tight for 4 movies with modestly different predicted openings. Concussions is much higher at 38.37%. I wonder if some folks think the fairly negative publicity around the film will pull it down, but others figure any publicity is good publicity and will over serve to increase foot traffic. As usual, I went through the various predicts (17 for Big Short, 18 for everything else. As an aside, I forgot to list how many predictors we had last week. It was 27 for all 3 movies) and here's what we ended up with: Big Short Mean: 15.3M Median: 15.9M StnDev: 3.62M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.59% High: 25M Low: 8.2M BO.com 14M Deadline 8M ScreenRant.com Variety 8M Entertainment Weekly: 8M Concussion Mean: 14.5M Median: 13.5M StnDev: 5.57M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 38.37% High: 29M Low: 7.8M BO.com 12.5M Deadline 9M ScreenRant.com Variety 9M Entertainment Weekly 9 Daddy's Home Mean: 18.2M Median: 18.8M StnDev: 4.48M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 34.65% High: 28M Low: 7M BO.com 18M Deadline 22.5M ScreenRant.com 18M Variety 21M Entertainment Weekly 21M Joy Mean: 15.9M Median: 15.6M StnDev: 3.97M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 25.00% High: 23M Low: 10.1M BO.com 17M Deadline 14M ScreenRant.com Variety 11M Entertainment Weekly 14M Point Break Mean: 8.7M Median: 9M StnDev: 2.33M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 26.85% High: 13M Low: 3.5M BO.com 9.5M Deadline 16M ScreenRant.com Variety 16M Entertainment Weekly 16M

I dunno. Sounds low.

Big Short 11.9M Concussion 7.8M Daddy's Home 13.8M Joy 10.1M Point Break 6.5M

Winner