Wrath

Is this your subtle way of drumming up business for your local optometrist?

Ah, ok, I missed that clarification. That seems pretty clear.

Oh, true. Good point.

"Unless he's playing Thor."

Indeed. Everyone's just killing time until a bus hits everything next week.

I think that's fair. Sure, if someone gets supporting when the guess was lead, that could be a big loss of points. But if the guess was correct it would result in a big gain of points and it would be hardly fair to have the reward without the risk. That question still terrifies me and I wonder if everyone did the math all the way through on this. For example, Tele, Movieman, and Filmmovie all had similar but different answers for Spotlight, with some combination of Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor. But they all had slightly different combinations. Added together, the *best* that threesome can do in terms of combined score on Spotlight is -30,000 points if Filmovie (who guessed all 4) is correct (and thus +60k) making Tele and Movieman both wrong (and at -45k each). But if something weird happens and, say, its nominated for Best Score, then they'll collectively be down 150,000 points (-60k for Filmmovie, and -45k each for Tele and Movieman). Heh, if MikeKaye42 gets everything right, he's going to gain 289,000 points, but if he's wrong on everything he'll lose 397,000 points. Obviously it'll be somewhere in the middle, but that's a pretty extraordinary range.

Ok, no one else is predicting Legend so I'm going to kill it. Haven't decided on a new comparison predictor yet. BoxOfficeGuru doesn't put out his predicts until Thursday night and that's just too late. Anyway, we're really right about in the middle on Heart of the Sea though everyone is pretty pessimistic on it. Heart of the Sea Mean: 13.4M Median: 12.9M StnDev: 3.63M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 27.22% High: 25M Low: 7.5M BO.com 14.5M ComingSoon.com dead Deadline 10M ScreenRant.com 14.5M Variety 13M

Sigh. I'm so bad at these. I guess there's no value in abstaining, so here we go. 1. What will Heart of the Sea gross OW? 14.5M 2. What will Legend gross this weekend? 1.3M 3. What will Krampus' percentage drop be? 48% 4. What will Creed gross on Friday? 2.85M 5. What will Peanuts' Friday increase be? 190% 6. What will Macbeth's PTA be this weekend? 7,250 7. What will be the difference in weekend gross between Secret in Their Eyes and Love the Coopers? 95,000 8. What will Spectre's total be by end of Sunday? 190M 9. What will Hunger Games gross on Sunday? 2.93M 10. How many positions will separate Spotlight and Victor Frankenstein? 14 11. What will be the gross difference between Good Dinosaur's Friday and Saturday? 1.91M 12. What will Night Before's percentage drop be this weekend? 29.5% 13. What will Trumbo's Sunday percentage drop be? 39% 14. How much will The Martian's gross differ from the film that finishes the weekend in 10th place? 920K 15. What will Jem and the Holograms gross this weekend? (I want to keep tradition of having the one question everyone gets right ) 9,000 fantasy dollars for me having predicted it earning $0m. Placements: 2. Hunger Games 4. Creed 7. Spectre 9. Peanuts 12. Martian 3/5 2000 4/5 5000 5/5 10000

Sigh. If I wasn't so amazingly bad at the Part 3s I might be ok at this game.

OW 235.4 DOM 728.1 WW 1,650.0

Heart of the Sea - 14.5 Legend - 1.3

Seriously. Don't you people know that I have deadlines this week? I'm hoping there will be a sub-section on best excuses for not getting actual work done because of time spent on box-office related analysis.

I'm afraid you're going to owe him $20. Interstellar beat Martian by ~45M in China.

Yeah, but they'll do wonders for our stndev's since its a square function. Plus, you'd be surprised at how often the semi-troll-y predicts (though, honestly, its more the lowballs than the high balls) end up being the best predicts, or close. Edit - Oh, I almost forgot. Since BourneFan asked, our top 5 most predicted movies so far have been: 1. Minions - 47 (It was the the very first week, and still stands as one of our best predicts to boot) 2t. Self/Less - 43 (Also first week) 2t. The Gallows - 43 (Guess which week it was? Also one of our best predicts) 4. Fantastic 4 - 38 (Not sure which week it was, but not one of the first few. Really, really not one of our best predicts) 5. Ant-Man - 37 Bottom 5 predicted movies: 1. A Walk in the Woods - 8 (The old people walking one) 2. Transporter Refueled - 9 (Same weekend as the old people A Walk) 3t. The Walk - 11 (The people walking on wires one, IMAX opening) 3t. Everest - 11 (Wide opening) 5. My All American - 12 Oh, and the median number of predictors is 20 and the mean is about 21. The Transporter one is kinda not like the rest. I guess it was just a really, really boring weekend.

Krampus Prediction: 11.1M +/- 3.44M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 16.3M (off by 5.2M, so 1.52 stndev) For once we went low and it bit us in the butt. Not a terrible predict, but certainly not good, either. Who knew campy holiday horror/comedy would resonate with audiences? BO.com kinda knew, but that's pretty much it. Best predict was at $16M by DamienRoc. So I guess DamienRoc knew, too. The Letters Prediction: 1.4M +/- 0.53M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 0.7M (off by 0.7M, so 1.28 stndev) Bleh. These super-low ones are complete crapshoots and only Variety and Deadline actually posted predicts so I almost dumped this one. In the future, if a movie goes Wide but only barely I'll probably only include it if its reasonably high profile. For example, I'm happy to include Legend, even if it technically misses being wide, because its pretty well known. But The Letters pretty obviously wasn't going to make it over that bar. This does mean that we will occasionally miss a movie that ends up being noteworthy, but hopefully it'll only happy a few times per year. The best predict was by TalismanRing at $0.7M. In fact, TalismanRing was off by $683, which will probably stand as our closest predict for quite some time.

Ah, for some reason I thought we were going off GMT, making the deadline 7 pm EST. Which is funny, because when I posted at 8:30 or so (EST) last night, I was afraid I'd already missed the boat and everything would be full-up.

Lol, you might be right. That having been said, the first week or two were really high. Its in the speadsheet, but I cant get it here. I'll post the record tomorrow and I'll also start looking into hosting the file somewhere so everyone can look at it. edit - 450, eh? Hmm. Well, if its that low other sites might not predict for it in which case I'll take it out retroactively.

Nah, its not even to 100% yet. Plus, it occurs to me that the kick off might actually be tomorrow. I was thinking 12 is the turn off day, but its possible 12:01 was intended.

25% Forest 25% Masket Saint

Not flop, perhaps, but with great reviews this could have been 120-140M. Now it'll be ~70M, maybe.

Spotlight was very good, but not quite great. Keaton and most of the cast were terrific, but Ruffalo was miscast, seriously overacted, and imo threw things off a bit.

Legend goes Wide this weekend, so we're predicting it, along with whatever non-hammer-wielding action Hemsworth is up to. Wrathette #2 (who just turned 9) was *dying* to see Crimson Peak (wasn't happening) for reasons I couldn't figure out, and is now *dying* to see Heart of the Sea from which I've figured out that she basically just wants to know what Loki and Thor are up to when they aren't being deities. I have to give her props for being on top of her actors. Not a super-exciting week, but better than last week, hopefully. Krampus turned out better than most of us were expecting, and unless it gets seriously revised downward I think we're going to have come in pretty low. Please provide your 12/11 - 13 Opening Weekend predicts for: Heart of the Sea Legend (anyone know how many screens this is getting?) Deadline is now going to be sometime between midnight Wednesday and Thursday midmorning (US Eastern time), depending on when I get to it.

Wow. Good Dinosaur and Peanuts are failing pretty hard OS.

Just saw the a commercial for Joy, and they finally did it in a way that actually gave a sense of the tone, shooting for the whole holiday, struggling underdog hits a home run theme. Its well done and Mrs Wrath could not possibly have eaten it up more. I seebig things.

Saw Spotlight, it was really good and the theater was absolutely full. Not sure how many screens its expanding to this weekend, but I was impressed at the turnout.