Wrath

There must always be a war just like the Flying Dutchman must always have a captain.

She was dressed to the nines but slightly rumpled, so my guess is that she was coming back from a late night (it was like 6 am, no idea why I was up at that horrible hour). No one looks very good under those conditions, especially not someone you'd automatically assume to be beautiful. Her skin looked surprisingly wrinkly with, I assume, no make up. I used to work for a consulting firm and one time early on I had a project manager who was model-grade attractive (she was smart and competent and all that, but that's not really relevant for this story). It wasn't so much that she was beautiful, though she certainly was quite pretty, it was that she had incredible skin. Someone asked her about it one time, and she said apparently she had super dry skin. The result was that during the day she looked really good, but as soon as she got tired she instantly looked 10 years older. She said it was nice then (she was in her early 30s), but she expected to age *really* fast. Anyway, Claire Danes kinda made me think of that.

Used to bag. They've been splits for years (a perk of being married, Mrs Wrath reads People and whatnot, so she keeps me up to date on celebrity gossip). I used to live in NYC around the corner from the restaurant Balthazaar. I saw them eating croissants one morning. He looks kinda funny in real life, but she was astoundingly smoking. Saw Claire Danes a few weeks later first thing in the morning on a Saturday and I thought she was a random woman in her early 50s.

He's 60 (about). He's probably good with the direction of his career at this point.

​Part 1​ 1. Will Goosebumps open to number 1 this weekend? *YES* 2. Will Goosebumps open to more than $25M this weekend? 3000​ *YES* 3. Will at least two new openers outgross The Martian this weekend? *NO* 4. Will Hotel Transylvania 2 drop less than 43% this weekend?2000 *YES* 5. Will Bridge of Spies have a higher PTA (per theatre average) than Crimson Peak? *NO* 6. Will Pan increase more than 65% on Saturday? *NO* 7. Will Jobs make more than $1.3m for the weekend? *NO* 8. Will Black mass have a higher percentage drop than Scorch Trials on Sunday? *Black Mass* 9. Will The Walk cross $10M by the end of the weekend? *NO* 10. Will Pan have a higher total gross than Sicario by the end of the weekend? 2000 *NO* 11. Will Woodlawn open in the top 7? *NO* 12. Will the Intern have the best weekend drop in the top 10? *NO* 13. Which film in the top 12 will have the best PTA? 14. Will Crimson Peak make at least 37.5% of its opening weekend gross on Friday (including Thursday)? 2000 *YES* 15. Is everyone now crazy excited that Jem and the Holograms is now just a mere one week away?!? *NO* Bonuses: 11/15 2000 12/15 4000 13/15 6000 14/15 8000 15/15 10000 Part 2. Bonus Question 1. What will be the total Friday gross for the top 3 new entries? (5000) 21.4M ​​Bonus Question 2. What will be Pan's weekend percentage drop? (5000) 56.5% Bonus Question 3. What will be Jobs' PTA this weekend? ​ (5000) 18,500 Part 3.​​ Placements: 2. Martian 4. Bridge 7. Pan 11. Black Mass 13. The Visit

Bridge 24.3 Crimson peak 21.2 Goosebumps 28.7 Woodlawn 2.9

Ok, no one other than us predicted for 99 Homes, so I'm not going to include it, other than noting that I won best predict for it (0.9M) which is just as well as we didn't predict it very well. Otherwise a crummy week for us. In a vacuum we did badly, though not awfully, but a bunch of side-things all went against us as well: we went high on both films relative to the field and they both disappointed, everyone else did relatively well on both of them, and our StnDev on Pan was a little lower than I would have guessed making things even worse. So, that's the way it goes. Pan Prediction: 22.2M +/- 3.96M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 15.3M (off by 6.9M, so 1.73 stndev) Doing it a little abbreviated because of the week, so the notes for both are above. Best predict was reliable source of Box office optimism, mahnamahna, at 16. The Walk (wide release) Prediction: 9.8M +/- 2.99M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 3.7M (off by 6.1M, so 2.03 stndev) Best predict was TalismanRing at 5.

As usual, I went through the various predicts (20 for both Pan and The Walk) and here's what we ended up with: Pan Mean: 22.2M Median: 21.4M StnDev: 3.96M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.88% High: 30.5M Low: 16M BO.com 16.5M ComingSoon.com 18.5M Deadline 20M ScreenRant.com 16M Variety 22M The Walk Mean: 9.8M Median: 9.5M StnDev: 2.99M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 30.56% High: 17.5M Low 5M BO.com 6M ComingSoon.com 5.8M Deadline 5M ScreenRant.com Variety 5M The Walk (IMAX) Mean: 5.0M Median: 4.5M StnDev: 1.93M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 38.59% High: 8.4M Low 3.0M BO.com 4.2M ComingSoon.com 2.6M Deadline 3M ScreenRant.com Variety 3.5M

A movie I know nothing about thats opening on ~1500 screens Friday.

Sorry, weekend was busier than expected, I'll get caught up tomorrow. Need to get the next week started anyway, so here we are. Please provide your 10/16-18 Opening Weekend predicts for: Bridge of Spies Crimson Peak Goosebumps Woodlawn Deadline is Wednesday 5 PM EST. You can post responses here, PM them to me, or post them in the Weekend Predict thread (but I'm only taking predictions from the Weekend Predict threat posted on last Saturday or later, up to the deadline). Thank you for participating! Just as a reminder, the intent of this is produce a forum-wide prediction for each wide-opening movie's opening weekend. Everyone submits their 3-day predicts (even if a movie has a weird release date, we're just doing predicts for Fri-Sun), I note them all, aggregate the results, and put out some numbers of what our collective view point on the movies looks like, as well as how they compare with predicts from a few other well known sites. Then the next week, I'll compare our predicts with the actuals, see how we did, and recognize the most accurate predictor for each movie. There's no purpose for this other than fun, and once the spreadsheet is big enough (in a few months, perhaps) I'll post it online somewhere so folks can go through it and see if there's anything interesting. Predicts can be posted here, PM'ed to me, and I'll also pull predicts from the Weekend Predict thread (as long as they are posted Saturday or later. Last Saturday, I mean. Posting the Saturday of the weekend we're predicting for would be totally cheating). Also, this in no way is in competition with the Weekend Predict thread. They serve different purposes and can happily co-exist.

Crap. I got held up and I'm going to be gone most of the weekend. I'll try to get to this tonight, but if I don't it won't be until Sunday.

Pan: $25m The Walk: $7.8m 99 Homes: $0.9m

By which I mean other website's predicts.

Excellent question, and so far I have absolutely no idea. One thing I'm probably going to have to do is go back and fill in the predicts for a bunch of the early movies for which I didn't necessarily get everyone else's predicts for.

Btw, I added some trivia bits to the end of last week's post. Folks might find them interesting. Its just counting trivia so far, but I'm thinking that once we get to 50 movies predicted (around Halloween) and I get some free time I might start playing with the data a little. Plus, I'll stick the spreadsheet online in case anyone feels like looking through it.

Ooh, I just noticed something else. WrathofHan is the last person standing in terms of turning in a valid predict for every movie we've done so far (38 for those scoring at home). This was something I'd been pondering in the back of my head, but as will soon be obvious I didn't realize how close we'd gotten. It turns out that prior to last weekend we were down to three people who had predicted for every single movie: Me, DAJK, and WrathofHan. I, embarrassingly, simply forgot, not realizing the title was in reach. DAJK, however, was eliminated on a bit of a technicality as he (I'm pretty sure DAJK is a he) did turn in a predict for every movie, but it was a 5-day predict for The Walk instead of a 3-day. So, sorry about that DAJK . The people who've submitted 30 or more predicts are: WrathofHan 38 DAJK 37 Wrath 35 Cjohn 33 Maxmoser3 32 Ethan Hunt 31 mahnamahna 31 DamienRoc 30 One thing that's kinda funny is that I have indeed been including predicts made in the Weekend Predict thread. So there are people who have quite a few predicts (like bapi at 28) but I don't think have been into one of these threads in quite some time and may have no idea this is even going on. Their lack of intent has no bearing on my appreciation for their dilligence! Also, in case anyone is curious, 91 different people have submitted at least 1 predict, and there are 7 people who have submitted exactly 1 predict. Most notable is Halba, who made one predict (26M for Fantastic Four), won the closest predict for that movie, and hasn't predicted anything since.

*BOOM*. Now THAT was some good predicting. Ok, The Walk wasn't so hot, but *damn* did we do well on the other two. Martian Prediction: 52.5M +/- 7.74M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 54.3M (off by 1.8M, so 0.23 stndev) Darn good. Our 5th most accurate predict (#1 was MI:5 which we called almost exactly perfectly, Minions was #3, and The Gallows was #4. I'll get back to #2 in a minute.) and while everyone was pretty close on it, we essentially tied with BO.com for the best predict. Ethan Hunt had the best predict at 54M. Interestingly, while we called it pretty closely, we actually had a decent range on our predicts, they just all averaged out to the right place. Sicario Prediction: 12.5M +/- 3.57M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 12.1M (off by 0.4M, so 0.12 stndev) Second best predict ever, very narrowly edging out Minions (0.119 stndev vs 0.121). Comingsoon.com edged us for the best overall predict (their 12.0 beat our 12.5) but we were dramatically closer than everyone else. Hilariously, our collective predict was *much* better than every single individual predict, as not one person turned in a predict anywhere between 11 and 14. Best predict was a tie at 11 between DAJK and DamienRoc. The Walk (PLF release) Prediction: 5.0M +/- 1.93M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 1.6M (off by 3.4M, so 1.76 stndev) Well, they can't all be winners. Fortunately, we had a big stndev so the result wasn't as bad as it probably looked, though it was still pretty bad. No one else did well either, but we picked the wrong movie to "go big" on, relative to the field. I'd be surprised if anyone else tries the "PLF to Wide" release strategy again anytime soon. Best predict was a tie between TalismanRing and WrathofHan at 3.0M.

That *was* fun. This week should be entertaining, if for no other reason than expectations couldn't possibly be lower for Pan and The Walk's expansion, and no one expects anything at all out of 99 Homes. So we've got lots of potential for an upside surprise! Please provide your 10/9-11 Opening Weekend predictions for: Pan The Walk (expanding wide) 99 Homes (expanding, I think it'll be wide) Deadline is Wednesday 5 PM EST. You can post responses here, PM them to me, or post them in the Weekend Predict thread (but I'm only taking predictions from the Weekend Predict threat posted on last Saturday or later, up to the deadline). Thank you for participating! Just as a reminder, the intent of this is produce a forum-wide prediction for each wide-opening movie's opening weekend. Everyone submits their 3-day predicts (even if a movie has a weird release date, we're just doing predicts for Fri-Sun), I note them all, aggregate the results, and put out some numbers of what our collective view point on the movies looks like, as well as how they compare with predicts from a few other well known sites. Then the next week, I'll compare our predicts with the actuals, see how we did, and recognize the most accurate predictor for each movie. There's no purpose for this other than fun, and once the spreadsheet is big enough (in a few months, perhaps) I'll post it online somewhere so folks can go through it and see if there's anything interesting. Predicts can be posted here, PM'ed to me, and I'll also pull predicts from the Weekend Predict thread (as long as they are posted Saturday or later. Last Saturday, I mean. Posting the Saturday of the weekend we're predicting for would be totally cheating). Also, this in no way is in competition with the Weekend Predict thread. They serve different purposes and can happily co-exist.

I agree. Now that I've had time to think about it, I'm probably going to go for it in one of two ways (haven't quite decided yet). But the question is pretty daunting at first glance.

So, uh, "...but I want to kick off with something veering on the simple side..." you mean they're going to get more complicated as we go on? Yikes. Plus, my first impression is that this kinda has pain written all over it, though I may change my mind as I think about it. Abstain

B+?

Yeah, waiting impatiently for a Hateful Eight trailer. The bits and pieces I've seen so far look great. I thought Joy looked intriguing, and its got a team I'm definitely willing to give the benefit of the doubt.

Saw the trailer for Joy before seeing The Martian (excellent as expected). Looks interesting.

I think 2001 is overrated. Its got some great shots and concepts, but its ponderous as hell. And while I agree that its an important film, its way to tedious and self indulgent to be a great one. Edit - The 3D love must vary from place to place. By me, almost all the showings are 2D and The Walk has all the PLF screens.

Time to start working on this. A: Domestic top 15: 1) Star Wars 7 2) Hunger Games 4 3) Spectre 246M 4) Good Dinosaur 245M 5) Revenant 165M 6) Hateful 8 151M 7) Kung Fu Panda 3 147M 8) Deadpool 128M 9) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 112M 10) Ride Along 2 108M 11) Peanuts Movie 106M 12) Creed 97M 13) Joy 94M 14) Goosebumps 88M 15) Finest Hours 80M B: Top 7 Domestic OW: 1) Star Wars 7 208M 2) Hunger Games 4 149M 3) Spectre 85M 4) Good Dinosaur 57M 5) Kung Fu Panda 3 50M 6) Deadpool 39M 7) Hateful 8 38M C: Worldwide top 10: 1) Star Wars 2) Spectre 3) Hunger Games 4) Kung Fu Panda 3 680M 5) Good Dinosaur 580M 6) Peanuts 400M 7) Deadpool 385M 8) Alvin and the Chipmunks 4 350M 9) Revenant 345M 10) Hateful 8 325M D: Total Grosses: Top 15 Dom) 2.742B Top 7 W/E) 637M Top 10 WW) 6.495B E: Top 5 Overseas Star Wars Territories: 1) China 2) Japan 3) UK 4) France 5) Germany 6) Australia F: Pre-season Questions: A generous risk-free question to start you off: Predict which film will finish closest to each of the following milestones domestically by the end of the game: A: 100M Creed B: 200M Revenant C: 300M Spectre D: 400M Hunger Games Each correctly predicted film scores you 10,000 points, get all four correct and receive 10,000 bonus points for 50k total. (This is the only preseason question where there is no penalty for being wrong so enjoy it). 1) Tell me which of these will be the highest grossing film of the winter domestically: *CREED* - 97M 1) Goosebumps 2) Krampus 3) Creed 4) Concussion Answer correctly: 10,000 points Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 10,000 point bonus. 2) Tell me which of these will be the lowest grossing film of the winter domestically: *ABSTAIN* 1) Point Break 2) The Nut Job 2 3) Victor Frankenstein 4) The Last Witch Hunter Answer correctly: 10,000 points Answer incorrectly: -5,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points Correctly predict the films gross to within 10M and receive a 10,000 point bonus. 3) Will at least 3 films make more than 300M domestically by the end of the game? *NO* Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 4) Will animated films combine to make more than 500M domestically by the end of the game? (Chipmunks is not considered animated here) *YES* Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 5) Will at least 2 films make more than 140M OW domestic? *ABSTAIN* Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 6) Will any film in the top 15 domestic have its domestic total outgrossed by its Chinese total? *YES* Answer correctly: 15,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 10,000 points State that you abstain: 3,000 points 7) Will at least two months’ OW records be broken by the end of the game? (This is 3 day only) *YES* Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 8) Will at least 2 of the 5 top grossing sequels/prequels/reboots become the top grossing film of their franchise by the end of the game? *ABSTAIN* Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 9) Will at least 5 different films in the top 15 be nominated for Oscars in either Acting, Best Song, Best Director, Best Screenplay or Best Animation or Best Film? *ABSTAIN* Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 10) Will the combined gross of the top 2 films domestic exceed 1 Billion Dollars? *ABSTAIN* Answer correctly: 20,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 15,000 points State that you abstain: 4,000 points 11) Will 300M dollars be closer to Kung Fu Panda 3’s Domestic total or its Chinese total? *Chinese* Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 12) Will any foreign film gross more money (in dollars) in its local market than the 15th highest grosser domestically does in the USA? *YES* Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 13) Will any film be pulled from the schedules at any point during the game due to fear of war with North Korea? *NO* Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 14) Will any film opening in less than 500 theatres in its opening week, go on to gross more than 200M dollars domestically? *NO* Answer correctly: 25,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 20,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 15) Which combination of films will gross the most amount of money domestically during the game? *4* 1) Mockingjay Pt 2, Bridge of Spies, The Night Before, In Heart of the Sea 2) Spectre, The Good Dinosaur, The Hateful Eight, Krampus 3) Crimson Peak, Peanuts, Kung Fu Panda 3, Goosebumps, 4) Star Wars, The Revenant, The Danish Girl, Zoolander 2 Answer correctly: 30,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points 16) Which combination of films will gross the smallest amount of money during the game? *ABSTAIN* 1) Burnt, Macbeth, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Pride and Prejudice and Zombies 2) Rock the Kasbah, Victor Frankenstein, Point Break, Ride Along 2 3) Jem and the Holograms, Sisters, The Nut Job 2, 13 Hours: Secret Soldiers of Benzhagi 4) Trumbo, Rings, Deadpool, Daddy’s Home Answer correctly: 30,000 points Answer incorrectly: lose 25,000 points State that you abstain: 5,000 points And Finally… The Return of the Jedi-centric questions: 1) Will Star Wars Gross over 400M domestically? *YES* 2) Will Star Wars Gross over 500M domestically? *YES* 3) Will Star Wars Gross over 600M domestically? *NO* 4) Will Star Wars Gross over 1B Worldwide? *YES* 5) Will Star Wars Gross over 1.5B Worldwide? *YES* 6) Will Star Wars finish top of all 3 main prediction charts? *YES* 7) Will 350M dollars end up being closer to Star Wars’ Opening Weekend total than its final domestic total? *OW* 8) If both are released before February 5th, will Star Wars’ China total be within 150M of Kung Fu Pandas’ (over or under) *YES* 9) Will Star Wars end up being one of the three highest rated Star Wars films on RottenTomatoes at the end of the game? *NO* 10) Will Star Wars have a domestic weekend increase at any point during the game? *NO* 11) Will Star Wars get nominated for at least 3 Oscars? *YES* 12) Will Star Wars manage at least 3 domestic weekends that are higher than Avatar’s comparative weekend totals in 2009/2010? *NO* 13) Will Star Wars manage at least 7 domestic weekends that are higher than Titanic’s comparative weekend totals in 1997/1998? *NO* 14) Will Star Wars gross more domestically in December than it does in January? *YES* 15) Will Star Wars be number 1 at the domestic Box Office for at least 5 weeks (consecutive or non-consecutive) *YES* 16) Will Star Wars’ combined total dollar gross from the UK and Australia exceed its domestic Opening Weekend total? *NO* 17) Will Star Wars achieve more than 10 Million admissions in South Korea? *YES* 18) Will China account for at least 20% of Star Wars’ worldwide total if released before February 1st? *NO* 19) Will Star Wars’ opening day (including previews) be enough for it to make the top 15 domestic regardless of its subsequent box office? *YES* 20) Will Star Wars still be in the domestic top 10 at the end of the game? *YES*