Wrath

Not quite as exciting a weekend as last time, but the official predicts for Compton are seriously all over the place (as were ours) so this should be interesting. Our UNCLE predicts were significantly more confident than our Compton picks, even without accounting for Compton being predicted to come in much higher, which is kind of amazing. Typically, variance on picks declines pretty sharply as expected OW BO goes up. Amusingly, our Compton picks, on average, came in within $100k of our F4 pick, albeit with a much wider spread. I went through the various predicts (Compton 23, UNCLE 22) and here's what we ended up with: Straight Out of Compton Predictions Mean: 43.4M Median: 44.0M StnDev: 12.42M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 28.6% High: 65M Low: 24M The Man from UNCLE Predictions Mean: 22.0M Median: 21.4M StnDev: 4.67M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.81% High: 32.0M Low 14.0M As usual, I picked a few other predictions to compare against. Let me know if you've got ones you'd like me to add. BO.com Compton 55M UNCLE 14M Screen Rant Compton 43M UNCLE 16M Deadline Compton 45M UNCLE 17.5M Variety Compton 41M UNCLE 17.5M

250/500, and it reminded me of a bunch of movies I'd forgotten I'd meant to see but hadn't gotten around to it. Also, it reminded me of a bunch of movies I'd seen and liked but had totally forgotten about (Blow Out is hugely overrated on this list, but it really was a good movie that's pretty much disappeared). On the one hand, any list that includes Big Trouble in Little China is a list worthy of my respect. On the other hand, a list of the top 500 movies really should have found room for Igby Goes Down and The Matador. Edit - Heh. Like Downfall. I've seen so many of those "Hitler" videos I feel like I've seen it, but I haven't. Or Mulholland Drive? How have I managed to not watch that?

Perhaps its a tent-less pole?

Early in the competition, Baumer noted he wasn't letting people have alternate picks. If you picked something and it got moved, then you were out of luck. So I suspect if you had those (and I had 2 of them), then you'll be SOL. From that list, looks like the top 5 will be: 1. D-Train (holy crap did that do badly) 2. Self-Less 3. Shaun the Sheep 4. Dope 5. Ricky (but Aloha might sneak past it)

Ah, I see. I just went with all the movies that BOM considered to have gone wide during the game. Where can you go back and look up what was wide on 4/30? Since I had zero of these 5 movies on my list, I'm not arguing.

Looks like we can just about answer the Top 5 Lowest Grossing movies of the summer question. 1. D-Train 2. Me & Earl and the Dying Girl 3. Irrational Man (I'm guessing it'll pass Me & Earl, but it might not) Those 3 are locked, barring a sudden expansion of Irrational Man (which would be surprising, as it just had a big expansion, and its estimated to have made less per theater this weekend than Terminator: Genesis did despite a surprisingly large amount of advertising. Woody Allen's traditional "middle aged man suffering angst who cures it via sleeping with women half his age" shtick is proving even less attractive to audiences than usual this time). Right now, the last 2 look like: 4. Self/Less 5. Far from the Maddening Crowd They're quite close to each other and still earning money, so they could easily change order still. There are really only 2 candidates left for catching them: - Underdogs - looking incredibly weak, so if it opens wide it has the possibly of sneaking in - DragonBall Z: Resurrection 'F' - technically opened to over 600 theaters (normally the cut-off for Wide) and will probably end up low enough to be in the top 5, but because of its odd limited release structure, BOM might not consider it to have actually opened Wide

So, it looks like She's Funny That Way is opening on Friday. Didn't we think that was gone?

As I've entered my later years, I've settled into disc golf, and I'd say ultimate is less weed-intensive than disc golf, but still moderately so. That having been said, its a high hurdle because disc golf might be the most pot-intensive activity I've ever done. Which is too bad, because I gave up pot a long time ago. Still, I drink my beer, they smoke their pot, and everyone's happy.

Ages ago, I was on a local Ultimate Frisbee team, the captain of whom was an amazing athlete and former pro soccer player. He expected us to do really well, win the region and advance to nationals (Was an amazing team. Another guy on the team had been on the NY Rangers for 4 years before retiring after a knee injury. I was supposed to be the worst player on the team, and I was 2 years out of college where my team was intermural champs 4 times). Instead we totally failed to gel as a team, had a couple people get hurt, and generally played way under our potential. We went 0-18. During the post-season party, the captain was really calm about the season instead of being frustrated and stressed. We were surprised. He said he'd recently found a good pot dealer, and now everything was cool.

Wait, so... Yoda was the bad guy in Clones? Somehow that totally went over my head.

Oops. Double post. Delete, please.

Heck, if FF4 has bad legs and Compton and UNCLE both underperform, MM2 could even make the top 15.

Ok, fair enough. Plus, Mrs Wrath would pay to watch Elba read the phone book.

Terrence Howard can't carry Don Cheadle's jockstrap.

Rourke was the only redeeming part of the movie.

Im curious, because theres no bigger fan of the books than me, but I HATED the movie. Should I rewatch?

I kinda assumed it was half joking. Theres overlap between watchers of questionable quality super hero movies and too-early-to-matter Presidential debates, but I suspect its small. I could see it hurting Mr Holmes quite a bit more.

Wait, what? It is? Thats news to BOM as well. Thats what I get for viewing them as a reliable source of info still.

Yeah. The WW predicts are extremely dicey because of China. And its not even something that you could potentially forget about, because most summer movies simply don't have Chinese release dates until after the predict deadline. However, it impacts everyone equally, so that's just the way it goes.

Hmm. Pixels is lagging.

Indeed. If you love roses, you should appreciate the thorns as well as the fragrance.

1) Will F4 open to more than 45 million? *YES* 2) Will F4 make at least 4m in sneaks? *YES* 3) Will Rogue Nation drop more than 51% for the weekend? *NO* 4) Will Rogue Nation jump at least 35% on Saturday? *YES* 5) Will Pixels drop at least 47.5%? *YES* 6) Will Shaun the Sheep place in the top 7? *YES* 7) Will Inside Out stay in the top 10? *NO* 8) Will Jurassic World finish above Mr. Holmes? *YES* 9) Will The Gift open to more than 10 million? *YES* 10) Will Minions finish above Ant-Man? *NO* 11) Will any movie jump at least 78% on Friday? *YES* 12) Will Paper Towns pass 31.5 million in total gross? *NO* 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots: 3 The Gift 4 Shaun the Sheep 5 Ant-Man 6 Minions 7 Vacation 2000 each 5000 bonus if you get all 5 correct Bonus 1: What is Rogue Nations’ percentage drop (specify to three decimal places)? 5000 48.573% Bonus 2: What will F4 make on OD (including sneaks)? 5000 19.1M Bonus 3: What will be F4’s WW gross (by Sunday estimates)? 5000 97.5M

Big Fish rocked while also making me bawl my eyes out. Also, its basically the relationship my dad had with his father, except the dad was gone for years at a time and they never reconcilled, so perhaps that gives it a little more punch for me.

My Dinner with Andre had better action than GP.

I think forum time reflects the timezone *you* are in. So, to me, on the east coast, Avi's post was at 3:23 PM. But I believe someone on the west coast would see it as being at 12:23 PM.