Wrath

That's some remarkably precise segmenting.

Wow. Its pretty bad when $600k and $525k are the *winners*. Kasbah and Jem are lined up perfectly to be bad to a historically bad degree.

Of the 5 movies going Wide this weekend, Steve Jobs' RT% is currently higher than the scores of the other 4 *added together*.

Im thinking 500k previews, 11-12m for the weekend and 30m total. Its always a little sad when a movie sets itself up for sequels and then falls on its face ensuring they'll never happen, but here we are.

Just saw Last Witch Hunter. I think, and Im pretty sure the 5 other people in the theater would agree with me, that we're going to be glad we went low.

Wow, that was terrible.

Haven't fallen out of the top 20 yet!

Compared to prior weeks (during which I think we had a mild run of over-exuberance), we're right in the middle on our predicts compared to other sites. The overall spread on Jem is pretty wide and we're right in the middle and the same with Rock the Kasbah. The spread on the predicts for Paranormal is extraordinarily tight (the low to high range is 10.5M to 12M) yet we managed to fall into that range as well (11.9M). We vary a bit on Last Witch Hunter in which we're a little pessimistic and Steve Jobs where we're a little optimistic. Steve Jobs will be very interesting to see where it shakes out. Our own range of predicts was decently tight, but the other sites have an incredibly wide spread (11.5M to 23.7M) which is unusual. We're on the high end of that range, but we're lower than BO.com. While our end result is right in line with other sites, the range of predicts used to get there was astonishingly wide (2.2M low to 12.5M high) giving a 51.33% ratio, the highest we've ever predicted (previous high was War Room at 48.96%). If this was a normal distribution (which its not), our predict would say that we think there's a 95% Jem's OW will fall somewhere between $0 (well, technically $-120k but that's not likely to happen) and $11.12M. So, we think there's a 1 in 20 chance it *doesn't* fall into that range. Now *that* is giving yourself a lot of wiggle room. As usual, I went through the various predicts (17 for Paranormal and Steve Jobs, 16 for Last Witch Hunter and Jem, and 14 for Rock the Kasbah) and here's what we ended up with: Jem and the Holograms Mean: 5.5M Median: 4.6M StnDev: 2.81M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 51.33% High: 12.5M Low: 2.2M BO.com 3.8M ComingSoon.com 6M Deadline 5M ScreenRant.com Variety 7M Last Witch Hunter Mean: 11.7M Median: 11.8M StnDev: 2.34M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 19.99% High: 16M Low 8M BO.com 14M ComingSoon.com 16M Deadline 13.3M ScreenRant.com 14M Variety 16M Paranormal Activity 4 Mean: 11.9M Median: 11.9M StnDev: 2.93M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 24.73% High: 17.5M Low 6.3M BO.com 10.5M ComingSoon.com 10.5M Deadline 11M ScreenRant.com 10.5M Variety 12M Rock the Kasbah Mean: 5.1M Median: 5.6M StnDev: 1.69M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 33.47% High: 7M Low 1.7M BO.com 4M ComingSoon.com 5M Deadline 6M ScreenRant.com Variety 6M Steve Jobs Mean: 21.8M Median: 22M StnDev: 5.07M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 23.23% High: 30.5M Low 12M BO.com 23.7M ComingSoon.com 16M Deadline 11.5M ScreenRant.com Variety 17M

7

Jem and the Holograms 4.3M Last Witch Hunter 15.1M Paranormal Activity 4 6.3M Rock The Kasbah 5.8M Steve Jobs 19.8M

​Part 1​ 1. Will Goosebumps stay at number 1 this weekend? 3000 *NO* 2. Will Jem and the Holograms finish above Paranormal Activity?​ *NO* 3. Will the Last Witch Hunter open in the top 3? *YES* 4. How many of the 4 main new entries will open in the top 5? 2000 *1* 5. Will the Martian remain in the top 3? *YES* 6. Will Crimson Peak drop more than 62%? *NO* 7. Will Jobs make more than Bridge of Spies this weekend? *YES* 8. Name any film in the top 12 that drops less than 30% this weekend without increasing (put none if you think none)? 3000 *BRIDGE OF SPIES* 9. Will pan finish above Sicario? *NO* 10. Will Hotel Transylvania have the best Saturday increase? *YES* 11. Will Rock the Kasbah have a better Friday than Jem and the Holograms? *YES* 12. Will the Intern remain in the top 9? *NO* 13. Which of the 4 new openers will have the best PTA? *Paranormal* 14. Will Jem bomb completely and make less than $2M this weekend? *NO* 15. Will anybody go to the cinema this weekend? *Yep! Last Witch Hunter for some cheesy action!* Bonuses: 11/15 2000 12/15 4000 13/15 6000 14/15 8000 15/15 10000 Part 2. Bonus Question 1. What will be the total weekend gross for Jem and the Holograms? (5000) 1.9M ​​Bonus Question 2. What will Job's Weekend percentage change be? (5000) 1,270% Bonus Question 3. What will be Maze runner's total gross by Sunday? ​ (5000) 77.95M Part 3.​​ Placements: 1. Steve Jobs 4. Goosebumps 6. Hotel Transylvania 2 9. Rock the Kasbah 12. Woodlawn

Not a bad week at all. Woodlawn was excellent, Goosebumps was good and the other two were mediocre. Bridge's predict and actuals were startlingly close to Pan's. Bridge of Spies Prediction: 22.2M +/- 4.87M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 15.4M (off by 6.8M, so 1.40 stndev) They're completely different films, but our predictions and the end result are almost exactly the same as what we had for Pan. Its uncanny how close they are. Fortunately, we had a slightly bigger stndev this time around so our miss wasn't quite as bad, but we were still the worst predictor out of the sites. babz06 had the closest predict at 17. Crimson Peak Prediction: 18.6M +/- 3.26M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 13.1M (off by 5.5M, so 1.68 stndev) Wow, that was a disappointment. As usual, the ones we're bullish on inevitably end up underperforming. Everyone else was high too, but not by as much. Best predict was by Bigosaurus at 13.5M Goosebumps Prediction: 26.7M +/- 4.46M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 23.6M (off by 3.1M, so 0.71 stndev) Not bad. A respectable predict and much closer than BO.com or ComingSoon.net who both missed badly, but not as close as the other 3 who all nailed it. Sadly, we had a 4-way tie for closest at 24 so I'm not going to award to anyone specifically. Woodlawn Prediction: 3.7M +/- 1.4M (1 standard deviation) Actual: 4.0M (off by 0.3M, so 0.22 stndev) Wow, darn good predict as though some miracle its OW came in pretty much exactly where everyone thought it would (Except Deadline, that is). In fact, it pushes The Martian out of our top 5 predict list. Best predict was Ethan Hunt at 4.

Yeah, I mean, logistically that makes sense. And from a scheduling standpoint I'm sure The Martian was the film that was the best fit to swap out to add in Steve Jobs. It was just that from a pure BO standpoint it looked odd. The # of showings this weekend goes: Goosebumps 10 Crimson Peak 8 (including all the IMAX) Hotel Transylvania 5 The Intern 5 Last Witch Hunter 5 Bridge of Spies 4 Jem and the Holograms 4 Rock the Kasbah 4 Steve Jobs 4 The Martian 4 Woodlawn 3 Pan 2 Maze Runner 2 Sicario 1 This is *by far* the widest selection of movies I've ever seen at it. Just realized Paranormal is getting shut out.

Oh, you're absolutely right. We used to have 3.5 theaters here (3 real ones of various degrees of crappiness, plus a small arty/indie place) but a couple years ago a new shopping center opened and it included a magnificent new theater. Beautifully done, stadium seating (which only 1 of the original 3 had, and even then it was only for about half its screens), 16 screens (the biggest of the prior 3 was 8) it was extremely welcome. Unfortunately, everyone else recognized how awesome it was too, and over the last two years Stonefield has systematically driven every other theater in town out of business, even the little indie one. The last one closed up in the spring. So, its a great theater, but we actually now have fewer screens than we did 4 years ago, and a much smaller selection of movies. Plus, the closest other theater is 45+ minutes away and its a huge step down in quality. I mention all this because as of yesterday, Jobs wasn't opening here this weekend so I kinda forgot about it. Please do put in a predict for Jobs, I'll fix the first post. 5 openers/expanders. Wow. Edit - Oh, *now* they list Steve Jobs showings. Grrr. They took screens away from The Martian to do it? The Intern has more showings than The Martian now. That's bizarre.

Wow, that's quite a list. I'm getting flashbacks from the beginning of September. This is the kind of weekend from which historically bad openings come from. So, I guess we've got that to potentially look forward to, at least. Edit - Yes, I forgot about Steve Jobs, its added now. Please provide your 10/23-25 Opening Weekend predicts for: Jem and the Holograms Last Witch Hunter Paranormal Activity 4 Rock The Kasbah Steve Jobs Deadline is Wednesday 5 PM EST. You can post responses here, PM them to me, or post them in the Weekend Predict thread (but I'm only taking predictions from the Weekend Predict threat posted on last Saturday or later, up to the deadline). Thank you for participating! Just as a reminder, the intent of this is produce a forum-wide prediction for each wide-opening movie's opening weekend. Everyone submits their 3-day predicts (even if a movie has a weird release date, we're just doing predicts for Fri-Sun), I note them all, aggregate the results, and put out some numbers of what our collective view point on the movies looks like, as well as how they compare with predicts from a few other well known sites. Then the next week, I'll compare our predicts with the actuals, see how we did, and recognize the most accurate predictor for each movie. There's no purpose for this other than fun, and once the spreadsheet is big enough (in a few months, perhaps) I'll post it online somewhere so folks can go through it and see if there's anything interesting. Predicts can be posted here, PM'ed to me, and I'll also pull predicts from the Weekend Predict thread (as long as they are posted Saturday or later. Last Saturday, I mean. Posting the Saturday of the weekend we're predicting for would be totally cheating). Also, this in no way is in competition with the Weekend Predict thread. They serve different purposes and can happily co-exist.

Yeah, seriously. Attack on Titan 2 is probably the most anticipated movie coming out in the Wrath household (Wrathette #1's best friend is a big anime buff and has gradually dragged Wrathette #1 into appreciating it), and I don't think its showing on a single screen within 2 hours of here.

Surprised there aren't Saturday numbers somewhere yet.

You kill them first? Why?

You loved Aloha too?

I actually didn't hate F4. I didn't think it was good or anything, but I didn't see it until a few weeks after it opened. My expectations were extremely low, so it was bad yet managed to beat my expectations and I have to give it credit for that. I think I've got a somewhat controversial pick for worst movie of the year: Amy Come at me.

What? Why? It was terrific.

Compared to other sites, we were really bullish on Bridge, a little bullish on Crimson Peak, and right in the middle on Goosebumps and Woodlawn so we'll see how all that turns out. Interestingly, we were somewhat less confident in our predict on Bridge than Crimson Peak or Goosebumps (both of which had rather lower StnDev's than I would have guessed given their expected OW ranges), which is interesting because the other sites were the most confident on Bridge while rather more divided on the other two. Woodlawn, as is usually the case with movies expected to under at $5M or less, is a crapshoot in percentage terms. As usual, I went through the various predicts (19 for Bridge, Crimson, and Goosebumps, 13 for Woodlawn) and here's what we ended up with: Bridge of Spies Mean: 22.2M Median: 22.0M StnDev: 4.87M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 21.91% High: 30.1M Low: 12M BO.com 17.5M ComingSoon.com 15M Deadline 15M ScreenRant.com 16M Variety 17M Crimson Peak Mean: 18.6M Median: 18.5M StnDev: 3.26M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 17.55% High: 26.9M Low 13.5M BO.com 15M ComingSoon.com 18M Deadline 15M ScreenRant.com 14M Variety 15M Goosebumps Mean: 26.7M Median: 25.5M StnDev: 4.46M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 16.69% High: 38M Low 19.7M BO.com 29M ComingSoon.com 29M Deadline 24.5M ScreenRant.com 24M Variety 2.5M Woodlawn Mean: 3.7M Median: 4M StnDev: 1.40M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 37.81% High: 5.6M Low 1.0M BO.com 4M ComingSoon.com Deadline 2.5M ScreenRant.com Variety 4M

I have a buddy with whom I go see action films. While we appreciate good ones (MMFR and GotG are the two recent favorites) and dislike bad ones (He still feels slightly guilty about picking TMNT to watch over GotG) our fundamental reason to get together is not just to watch action flicks, but to watch cheesy action flicks. We absolutely cannot wait for The Last Witchunter. I read somewhere that Diesel's character is based on his Dungeons and Dragons character which is a non standard springboard to coming up with a movie narative.

Making a movie only 9 people are going to properly appreciate doesnt really count as good film making. Its more aling the lines of making an incredibly expensive inside joke.

Argh! I left some of the tougher predicts for later and I jusr realized I never actually went back and did them. Was only a few so hopefully it won't cost me too badly.