Wrath

The fun gets kicked up a notch! Our predicts this week are all kinda... well, non-descript, honestly. Which is fine. The ratios (Stndev/Mean) for all 3 movies are right about where you'd expect, and our Martian and Sicario predicts are pretty close to the middle of the pack compared to the other predictors, though we're modestly optimistic about The Walk. As usual, I went through the various predicts (25 for The Martian, 24 for Sicario and 11 for The Walk) and here's what we ended up with: The Martian Mean: 52.5M Median: 53.0M StnDev: 7.74M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 14.74% High: 66.0M Low: 37.3M BO.com 56M ComingSoon.com 49M Deadline 42M ScreenRant.com 52M Variety 45M Sicario Mean: 12.5M Median: 12.5M StnDev: 3.57M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 28.53% High: 19.2M Low 7.5M BO.com 14.3M ComingSoon.com 12M Deadline 9M ScreenRant.com Variety 9M The Walk (IMAX) Mean: 5.0M Median: 4.5M StnDev: 1.93M Ratio (StnDev/Mean): 38.59% High: 8.4M Low 3.0M BO.com 4.2M ComingSoon.com 2.6M Deadline 3M ScreenRant.com Variety 3.5M

I think this sounds just about right.

Crap! I forgot to put in my own predicts. For posterity, I was going to go with 58m for Martian, and then pull something out of my ass for Sicario.

My god... It all makes sense now! I always knew there was something nefarious about Pat Sajak.

Mars > California But we knew that.

Saw the trailer with the Wrathettes. Both of them yawned and looked slightly confused + uninterested, so I'm assuming catastrophe. On the other hand, The Good Dinosaur didn't really motivate them either. Maybe they were just sleepy.

Alright, I'm going to track The Walk 3-day (but not 5-day) if people want to include it, then I'll list it again when it goes wide. Aka, give it the Everest treatment.

Close! 3-day even for Wed openers, 4-day only if the monday is a "major" north american holiday. How many screens is The Walk getting? Is it 550ish like Everest?

Do I need to say any more? The fun starts now. Please provide your 10/2-4 Opening Weekend predictions for: Martian Sicario Deadline is Wednesday 5 PM EST. You can post responses here, PM them to me, or post them in the Weekend Predict thread (but I'm only taking predictions from the Weekend Predict threat posted on last Saturday or later, up to the deadline). Thank you for participating! Just as a reminder, the intent of this is produce a forum-wide prediction for each wide-opening movie's opening weekend. Everyone submits their 3-day predicts (even if a movie has a weird release date, we're just doing predicts for Fri-Sun), I note them all, aggregate the results, and put out some numbers of what our collective view point on the movies looks like, as well as how they compare with predicts from a few other well known sites. Then the next week, I'll compare our predicts with the actuals, see how we did, and recognize the most accurate predictor for each movie. There's no purpose for this other than fun, and once the spreadsheet is big enough (in a few months, perhaps) I'll post it online somewhere so folks can go through it and see if there's anything interesting. Predicts can be posted here, PM'ed to me, and I'll also pull predicts from the Weekend Predict thread (as long as they are posted Saturday or later. Last Saturday, I mean. Posting the Saturday of the weekend we're predicting for would be totally cheating). Also, this in no way is in competition with the Weekend Predict thread. They serve different purposes and can happily co-exist.

Except that Martian expectations are far lower.

Interstellar had a lot of the pieces of a great movie, but it couldn't put them together.

Its funny, their long-term predict for the weekend was 21 or so, and then Wed night they bumped it up to 27. Oops.

Blomkamp directing Alien 5? That's the most interesting part of the article to me.

This is not a vauable evaluation metric.

Holy crap for Everest.

Agreed. Also, once they killed off Idris Elba's character (Stacker Pentecost! What an awesome name for an action character) they no longer had any characters engaging enough to care about.

Yeah, baby! Yeah!

Sure. Why not?

Except that the aliens arent the point of the movie. Theyre part of the setup. Similar to, and only slightly more important than, the brother's baseball past. The point of the movie is that entire universe, or God, or something, has spent the last decade setting things up so that the boy survives the last 15 minutes of the film. Or, that the boy *is* going to survive the final scene, and the universe itself is just being unusually obvious about foreshadowing this fact. Anyway, I liked Signs, and I understand why people don't like it, but I feel like some people dislike it for the wrong reasons. The question of "Why is this kid the center of the universe?" isnt addressed, and is a valid reason for disliking the movie. And, yeah, the aliens picked a terrible movie to invade, which is bad, and you can dislike it for that, but remember thats its not the center of the movie. Its like disliking it because the bat is too conveniently located in the final scene.

I know this is ancient, but I cant just let this go. Stacker Pentecost is an awesome name for a character in an action movie.

Thats a good start. The Hobbit movies were mediocre, but Freeman was consistently great. Edit - Presumably whoever played Klaw in AoU will be back as well, since he's Black Panther's big enemy and all.

Yes, but that is one hell of a low bar.

Ok, I'm sorry to be the one to tell you this but... You know that Baumer's crafty, right? So, you know that when he said "Oh, 1,000 points won't matter! Missing a couple questions won't even be noticeable at the end of the game!", he was undermining potential competition. Grim and Darkelf hammer at the keyboard until their fingers bleed.

50 posters enter, 1 poster leaves.

It'd be nice if MMFR decided to reappear around here. I mean, really? Dope is getting screens? Why does that seem like a good idea?