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Everything posted by Wrath
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1) Will Compton win the 4 day? *YES* 2) Will Transporter win the three day? *NO* 3) Will A Walk in the Woods make at least 5 million for the three day weekend? *NO* 4) Will any film drop less than 13% on Monday? *NO* 5) Will more than 7 films increase on Sunday? *NO* 6) Will any film increase more than 165% on Friday? *YES* 7) Will We are your Friends drop more than 40%? *NO* 8) Will Jurassic World drop less than 15%? *NO* 9) Will any film drop less than 10%? *NO* 10) Will Rogue Nation make more than War Room? *NO* 11) Will Minions drop less than Ant-Man? *YES* 12) Will any film drop more than 27% on Thursday? *YES* 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots: 1 Compton 2 Transporter 5 No Escape 6 Walk in the Woods 10 Hitman 2000 each spot right 4000 bonus if all 5 right Bonus 1: What will Jurassic World be at WW according to Rentrak, by the time Sunday numbers are released? 10,000 1.646B Bonus 2: What will The Gift make for the 4 day? 10,000 2.01M Bonus 3: What will the combined weekend 4 day gross be of Hitman, Compton and Uncle? 10,000 18.4M
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Yeah. Looks like San Andreas is going to pull a minor upset and take it, thanks to MI5 getting a slightly late China open, but I suppose a miracle could still happen. Its funny, really. If MI:5 had opened a single day earlier in China it probably would have won it. I have to say, other than Ted 2, the other 4 possible entries ended up a good bit closer together than I expected.
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Yeah, and while the exact amount obviously aren't quite locked in yet, and I didn't check whether any of them are close enough that the order could change (though its not going to be an issue since no one called JW at #1 anyway), but those being the top 10 WW for the summer is now set in stone. Spy is currently sitting at #11 and its at $235M, so PP2's spot at #10 is safe. Interestingly, the top 10 WW is the current top 9 domestic (though in a slightly different order), and then #10 (Compton, which has made 196K OS, so its not a threat to catch PP2 either) gets dropped for the #14 DOM film, TG.
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Wed (Aug 26) #s - SOC $2.1m | NoEsc $1.18m | MI5: $1m
Wrath replied to TalismanRing's topic in Numbers and Data
Mrs Wrath is inexplicably fired up for Scortch Trials despite, afaik, having neither read the books nor even watched the first one. All I can figure is that she thinks one of the actors is cute but she denys it. -
The end is near! 1) Will SOC drop more than 45%? *YES* 2) Will War Room open to more than 6.3 million? *NO* 3) Will No Escape open to more than 12 million for the 5 day? *NO* 4) Will No Escape decrease more than 30% on Thursday? *YES* 5) Will SOC ever not have a day as the number one movie (Thurs-Sun)? *YES* 6) Will We Are Your Friends make more than No Escape for the three day? *YES* 7) Will Mission Impossible make more than any of the two openers? *YES* 8) Will American Ultra fall more than 45%? *YES* 9) Will Sinister fall less than 55%? *NO* 10) Will Man from Uncle make more than Hitman? *NO* 11) Will Fantastic Four fall more than 54%? *YES* 12) Will any film increase more than 105% on Friday? *NO* 13) Will any film increase less than 50% on Friday? *YES* 14) Will any film increase more than 55% on Saturday? *YES* 12/14 5000 13/14 7000 14/14 10,000 What films finish in spots: 3 MI:5 5 War Room 8 UNCLE 9 Ant-Man 2000 each bonus of 5000 if all 4 correct Bonus 1: What does SOC make on Sunday? 5000 4.222M Bonus 2: What does Man From Uncle decrease by? (3% points please) 5000 43.000% Bonus 3: What does the cume for Minions, Ant-Man and The Gift add up to? 5000 7.875
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Compton's a little less frontloaded than 8 Mile or Notorious so far.
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Weekend Prediction thread 10/11-10/13 Play the Derby
Wrath replied to Impact's topic in Box Office Derby
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Ok, looks like the 5-6-7 ordering bonus points are indeed safe. It would take a major miracle for PP2 to not land somewhere between 5-7 and only 2 people ranked it in one of those spots, and both ranked it 7th (which is really unlikely). Sadly, one of those folks picked it finishing behind #5 - MI5 (which is possible) and #6 - Ant-Man (which really isn't), and the other picked it finishing behind #5 - MI5 (again, possible), and #6 - Minions (which isn't going to happen). So, no 5-6-7 specific ordering bonus. Additionally, I totaled up how many films each person successfully called out of the top 15 Domestic (I didn't look at WW). Everyone in the competition scored somewhere between 11-14 out of 15. 14 - 1 - Baumer. Yep, just Baumer. Nice job. 13 - 20 - Jake Gittes, Damien Roc, Chasmmi, Empire Out, Darkelf, Dipper, Kayumaggi, K1stpierre, ThePanda, Treeroy, Films, Wrath, Cmasterclay, Cjohn, Simionski, Jajang, Numbers, Geraldino, Telemachos, Chewy, Matrix4You 12 - 20 - #Ed, Narniadis, Neo, Filmovie, Grey Ghost, Iceroll, Avi, Snoopy, DAJK, Druv10, Movieman89, Dar, Michael Gary Scott, 24Lost, Exxdee, Grimm22, Alfredstellar, Geraldino, Laguy, Mattrek Loves Del Toro 11 - 9 - Cedar, Goffe, Blankements, Ethan Hunt, Alpha, Glassfairy, Jandrew, BCF26, Kalo (reported late)
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Ok, going to assume the top 15 go: JW AOU IO Minions PP2 MI:5 Ant-Man San Andreas MMFR Compton Spy Trainwreck Tomorrowland Terminator:Genesis Ted 2 Not exactly in that order (I'm ballparking where I think MI:5 and Compton end up, which could be wrong). That'll be a bit of an issue, because while JW scrambled most of the Specific Ordering bonus points, its still possible for someone to get the "5-6-7" bonus right. I think they'll *probably* end up PP2 - MI5 - Ant-Man, but we won't know for sure for a few weeks and we'll have to score it then. But those being the top 15 are just about set in stone. The only 3 movies that even have a faint chance of displacing Ted 2 are Pixels (needs to make ~16M by the end of the game), Vacation (~34M), and F4 (~38M) all of which are extraordinarily unlikely. So, with that in mind, I'm going to do a count of how many everyone got right, and then at least ballpark who has a chance of getting 5-6-7. Will be posting in a bit.
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I think a number of people are going to go 13/15, but I think Baumer will be the only one to go 14/15 for Domestic. He was the *only* person not to have F4 in his top 15, but taking Pixels instead of Tomorrowland will block him from getting the full 15/15. Who knew that *NOT* picking Tomorrowland would end up as a mistake?
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1) Will any opener break 15 million? *NO* 2) Will SOC fall less than 62%? *YES* 3) Will Sinister be the largest grossing film of the openers? *YES* 4) Will Man From UNCLE fall more than 45%? *YES* 5) Will Hitman make more than American Ultra? *YES* 6) Will Ant-Man and Minions both fall less than 40%? *NO* 7) Will FF stay in the top 10? *NO* 8) Will FF drop more than 60%? *YES* 9) Will Rogue Nation gross more than at least two of the openers? *YES* 10) Will any film increase more than 100% on Friday? *NO* 11) Will any film increase more than 50% on Saturday? *YES* 12) Will Vacation decrease more than 7% on Thursday? *YES* 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 2 Sinister 2 3 MI5 4 Hitman 5 Ultra 7 Gift 2000 each 5000 bonus if all 5 correct Bonus 1: What will Compton make on Saturday? 5000 9.55M Bonus 2: What will Minions drop % wise this weekend...3 decimal spots... 5000 43.156%
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No one cares about it anymore, but I saw Shaun the Sheep over the weekend with Wrathette #2. While the theater was surprisingly full for a movie doing so badly, I have to say it was actually pretty disappointing. Technically proficient, but really slow paced and not especially engaging. Wrathette #2 admitted to being bored and for the first time in a very long time I actually checked my watch to see how long it had left. Hard to believe its the same folks who made Chicken Run.
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1) Will Straight Outta Compton make more than 3 million for previews? *YES* 2) Will Man from U.N.C.L.E. gross more than 25 million? *NO* 3) Will Fantastic Four drop more than 65%? *NO* 4) Will Mission Impossible have more than a 75% Friday increase? *YES* 5) Will The Gift make more than FF? *NO* 6) Will any film in the top 10 fall less than 30%? *NO* 7) Will any film in the top 10, excluding FF, fall more than 45%? *YES* 8) Will Minions make more than Ant-Man? *YES* 9) Will Ricki and The Flash increase more than 25% on Saturday? *YES* 10) Will FF have a Saturday increase of more than 40%? 11) Will Jurassic World make more than 10 million WW according to Rentrak? *NO* 12) Will Pixels drop less than 38.5%? *NO* 10/12 3000 11/12 5000 12/12 7000 What finishes in spots 5 The Gift 6 Vacation 7 Ant-Man 9 Trainwreck 2000 each and 3000 bonus for all four right Bonus 1: What will Compton make? 3 decimal places please. 5000 38.351M Bonus 2: What will UNCLE make? 3 decimal places please. 5000 17.815M Bonus 3: What will FF drop % wise....3 decimal places please. 5000 61.375% Bonus 4: What will Rogue Nation make on Friday? 3 decimal places please. 5000 4.655M