Infernus

How are Revenant's presales looking at the moment?

Its not really as difficult as this would make it seem. Remember there are chances Apocalypse increases to 250m in the SH wave (at the same time it can hurt it too ofcourse but I am just talking about the possibility) plus Deadpool aftermath while Alice 2 is sure to suffer a massive drop from the first. The first's reputation has highly deteriorated over the years plus a major part of its gross was due to the 3D wave back then. And Johnny Depp doesn't have any box office power now, none (mortdecai?). I can easily see it getting below 250m at the very least. So chances might still be better for Alice but I think it is not much improbable that Apocalypse beats out Alice.

C'mon now, that was four years ago. And this is definitely more of a Pixar property than an Andrew Stanton one for the people. Moreover Carter and Dory are two completely different films. Also, Unexpected journey still scored 3-4 academy noms. One can't really expect a movie to get a Best Pic nom just on the basis of the previous parts of the franchise. The Best Animated category is much more lenient and easy. And the Pixar domination is real. If brave could win with an RT score in the 70s and against Wreck it Ralph (not particularly commenting on which was better, just that WIR was quite better received), I see very few chances of this not atleast receiving a nom.

Hmm, yeah you're right. Since we've been getting an anime nom almost every year for quite some years, I kinda forgot that its been absolutely Ghibli exclusive. I do hope this year gives us the first non-ghibli anime movie nom but seeing that even wolf children didn't get one, that would indeed, and unfortunately, be quite unlikely.

I believe it will have to be straight-out bad or blandly average to not even get a nom. Even if its just above average and quite likeable, close to 80% RT, I think they will give it a nom. Being Pixar's and the sequel to such a great great movie (far more loved and praised than Monsters Inc was, if anyone wants to bring that up) would definitely mean it will get an advantage. It will have to be a 7/10 to get in line with 8/10s. In the end, though, nothing can really be said with absoluteness and there's a 100% probability of there being a probability that it might not get nominated even if it gets a 100% & 10/10 RT score and avg (an extraterrestrial attack who will leave only on the condition that it doesn't get nominated because their original planet was destroyed by a fish-alien species and so are on a mission to ignite hatred against those things in all planets or something so that they find allies in the mega war that their grand oracle predicted will happen a thousand years hence? I dunno..) so I'll say it has high enough chances to be said to be locked in a universe where nothing ever really is.

For what its worth, Toy Story 3 had 8.9 avg rating on RT. UP had 8.7. And IO had 9. Zootopia has 8.1 and its number of reviews is yet just half of these films. So while its true that almost everyone liked zootopia just like these others, most thought this was a very good film compared to most thinking that the other three were near-masterpieces. If IO couldn't get a BP nomination, even though the comp wasn't even too tough, there's almost no chance of Zoo getting it.

But that does still indicate that there's a lot of interest, right?

Can add 150m+ together, if received just as well as in all other markets. 950m+ atleast would be assured then. Infact I think Japan can positively surprise us and take this even further.

Its not. Its almost certain to happen as of now in fact, as long as 270m can be crossed DOM. And even if it doesn't cross 500m Dom+China it will come very close to that.

Inside Out Wreck it Ralph Toy Story 3 Monster's University Frozen=Tangled The Good dinosaur Cars 2 Not seen the rest

Really? What gives? I thought it was more of a 600-700m material than 1B. Moreover, you think it'll make the same as BvS?

It is crazy. The 250m + number I gave for Nemo adjusted in the prev page comes from an actual number of around 4m in 2003. Even after reducing the ER improvement factor it still results in 190m+ and thats without including this years 55% jump (which would mean 190*1.55 = a straightoff 295m). Just gauge the level of market growth from that... more than 48× in 12 years, 75x in 13!!!!

Zootopia's performance in China has been so so so much more incredible than here. It released day and date in China. OW - US 75m $ China (and it was a full 3 day one) 23.6m $ 2nd Weekend US ~50m$ China (and no this is not an exceptionally leggy market, probably less so than US and movies fall just as much in their second weekend as here) 60m$+ (WTF!!) Another fact, its OD has been its lowest day yet and looks to remain so until after the next weekend. Its receiving exceptional WOM and performing in an out of the world manner. And with no real marketing campaign. Purely WOM driven run. Will make atleast 220m$ even if it has a relatively normal run now. Even that would be 70m, or around 50%, more than the previous animated film record that was just made last month by KFP3, a film with the best of marketing campaign, at the topmost completely-another level of its genre in the country and which was specially made for chinese audience (to be noted though that KFP3 would have made atleast 250m$ but for the terribly horrific release date it got) Its a run of wonders.

But as we just saw, WOM can do anything. Of course, though, we can not know how that will be so basing predictions om it would be foolish but just saying. Nemo was a very big success here in its time. Adjusting to market growth and change im ER, and I know it doesn't always work that way but thats the best way to gauge a films success in its time with regard to today's grosses, it made ~250m$ (which would become, gulp, 387.5 factoring the 55% jump for this year too). And this is the kind of animated film - talking animals, simple comedy, beautiful visuals, universally holding emotional content - that appears to appeal here. Plus its the sequel of a very loved film so the disadvantage of being the first or an original film doesn't hold either. Yes, Pixar films have not been performing very well lately but I'd say thats just because the pictures they made have not appealed here. I highly doubt people are gonna think -"Dory? Thats Pixar. Didn't like their last film, so gonna pass it." Its not even that known a brand outside the western world. I would go with atleast 600m yuan and believe it can reach much higher too.

Whoa! Didn't check that. That would be quite an overperformance. But I guess overperformance is the average for this film now, considering that it has done so in every single marlet around the globe. Really, all hail Leo! Another mighty mighty succes to his name.

Wow, this is incredible! All this past week its performance was pretty mind blowing and yet this weekend very clearly outperformed expectations. That estimates puts this up for around 60m. 60m second weekend! First mermaid, and the other new year's stuff, and now this. The market is so booming! Now I really hope Revenant comes close to 400m yuan. That'd be so awesome and its not entirely dreamy considering the Leo 'n Oscar hype. That would also take this past 500m$ WW.

Factored for the yearly market growth plus the fact that these are at the top of their genre, yes this would seem to be the correct, albeit conservative (and looking at the recent Hollywood movies, that is needed), range. Infact 150m would be somewhat of a pretty low predict keeping in mind that Ant-Man made around 110m last year. Yes DC is not that popular here but one has to keep in mind the level of its genre this film is at. This is an outlier. Its Batman vs Superman with Wonder Woman! Its superheroes like Ant Man that need built up brand recognition, not these! so yeah 150-180 would be a correct and conservative range and if it turns out to be good, passing the 200m mark is a possibility. Of course we just had KFP3 not being able to even come close to 200m when it should have made 350m going by this. But, as@MinaTakla often said, we should have kept in mind the fact that animations simply hadn't been able to compete with the other genres in the many years following KFP2 and there were of course many other factors contributing to that disaster (it would still have made atleast 250m in given a better market time), while superhero movies have been continuously proving themselves to be increasingly loved by the GA.

Yes. What's the confusion?

BvS 180M$ CW 230m$ Apocalypse 210m$ Reminder though, there's a separate thread to discuss the box office prospects of Upcoming SH movies in China.

Since its made nearly all its money in China, there isn't much to talk about in the OS thread, considering there's already a separate sub-forum for China. There is (was, actually, its Zootopia's incredible WOM driven and Ip Man 3's annoyingly fudged up runs that are dominating it now) lots of excitement there, you should check it out.

This feels good after the KFP3 disaster

Good, wonderful round number The journey to 300m begins.

KFP3's holds have been really good!

Zootopia and Finding Dory are the only 2 films locked to be nominated as of now. I am not absolutely sure about it, but Little Prince has been garnering enough recognition to get one of the usual two foreign spots. There has to be one anime film of course. What could it be? There's lots of possibly-good sequels and TV show movies coming this year but Oscars seemingly ignore those. So among the rest one that comes to mind as deserving (based on source material and studio) is Koe no Katachi. But oscars mostly only take up the old-school movies so that might work against it... Anyways the fight for the third american spot will be tough. Many big movies coming out this year. I guess Moana has relatively higher chances, simply going by the WDAS' recent quality level, but that way all 3 movies would be disney's. If nothing else gets acclaim, KFP3 might get the slot too. It got decent reviews and both the prev films got a nom. Then there's Kubo and the Two strings which probably has the highest chance of them all. Its Laika's, stop-motion (so diversity), its got a fantastic cast and apparently it looks stunning. Nothing else stands out.

BvS 1.3B (its Batman vs Superman with Wonder Woman! Its superheroes like Ant Man that need built up brand recognition, not these!) CA:CW 1.5B (basically the same as what AOU made, due to market expansion. Not more due to the apparent bad taste left by AOU) XA 1.5B (looking to be quite effects heavy, 2012-like in essence due to the apocalypse nature. Plus DOFP had pretty good WOM if I recall correctly) SS 700-750M (don't really believe in its appeal here) DS 850M (Cumberbatch is a big thing here plus the magic parts/effects should be pretty cool)