Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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Remove Pixels from the list and this will become interesting. "The big 3 Fall HW China releases over 450m in China". That would still probably be a easy in but still better than right now. The risk of one of them disappointing will make this a more Exciting club. Till then my predicts - MI5 215m (I was conservative on this but apparently its a pretty good movie) Minions 155m TG 90m (this is the one most prone to disappointing IMO)
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Somehow, I am feeling a big number for MI. Maybe all of our cautious predicts will be blown off. Also, Minions returns to the top? Maybe its gonna start stabilzng now. Hurrah at IO staying above a million today
Tbh it doesn't even really mean or matter much but for some reason I just wanted it to stay above the mark throughout the week and am happy that's happening. Will tie with JW for the highest no of consecutive days, this year (yet), above 1m$. -
You had me thinking a big drop is coming for IO, but that -5% from last thursday hardly seems big to me.. the daily drop's big but that was to be expected after the inflated wednesday. So, IO once again held very well despite such massive competition... Amazing!
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What are the early ratings for Minions?
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I hope IO stays above 1.1m. That will increase its chances of remaining above 1m on thursday.
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Still no numbers for our fav couple?
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If this will happen it will be a miracle. After the decline of 3D, an animated movie, that usually has a lower average ticket price, needs over 3M admissions to reach 20M: this is very very difficult to obtain here. The last foreign movie that has passed 3M admissions, according to Audimovie numbers, was Madagascar 3 in 2012, while if we watch the SIAE datas, that include the Summer/Christmas discounted re-releases and some small cinemas out of Cinetel/Audimovie panel, in past three years only Frozen and Fifty Shades have been able to reach this milestone. So I think IO most reasonable prediction is between 9 and 11M, while Minions should will do 16/18.
Ouch! Still, I believe if the movie is loved here it can reach close to atleast 15m. Or is that also very far fetched? Btw did I just read that Madagascar 3's has been the biggest first run here since 2012
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What Mr. Pink told you when you tried to join the Nolan club.
Uh Oh... you've gone to the forbidden territory with this one a2k. Be prepared for the incoming Wrath!
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Just a bit note on Love Live! The School Idol Movie, and a certain extent, most of the movie adaptions based on existing television animation series, particularly late-night animations.
Speaking of the aforentioned movie itself, it is set to overtake Puella Magi Madoka Magica the Movie: Rebellion (2013)'s 2.08B JPY record as being a highest gross film based on a late-night animation. Which will happen on weekend, if not already overtaken in weekdays.
However, this is not the main topic talking about here because I found nobody (at least in this thread) has accounted a usual strategy used by many animation series' movie adaptions: Entrance Gift changing on weekly basis.
Actually most of the late-night animations' movie adaptions had used such promotion strategy (this include Madoka Rebellion and K-On! Movie(2011)) so it is nothing new, but recently many Japanese reporters had questioned such promotion strategy, comparing that to usual promotional strategy used by AKB. I am not judging if this strategy is right or not, but in Japan community is widely accepted that weekly based entrance gift has been playing a important role of gross of animation series' movie adaption)
In addition, among the usual gifts given out, film roll pieces is particulatly popular among fans. (Taking Love Live! The School Idol Movie as example, +31% gross on week 6, the week giving out film roll pieces)
I think in future, Weekly Basis Entrance Gift should be taken into factor when accounting for late-night animation movie adaptions. Particularly if the gift that week is film roll pieces.
Welcome to the forums
And thanks for this great piece of info. So, basically, viewers get gifts from the distributor on the weekends? Didn't know that o.O -
Yeah, I did think you were getting a little too optimistic there. Still, as I said, I think 750m+ can happen without China. its got atleast 25m left from japan and 45m left from UK. Plus Italy and germany could turn out big and give around 70m to it (combined and I know even then its a little optimistic but this has been overperforming everywhere but japan and tbh 30-40m is not too big a sum for those markets). Add around 25m from the holdover markets. That gives us an OS-C gross of 390m. With 360m from U.S this brings the total, without china, to 760m WW. With 60-70 m from China (thats a little optimistic but can happen with low competition) that means it would end with around 820m WW. Or atleast thats what I think.
Slash that. Haven't been following european markets or euro much this year. Just looked at the euro to dollar ratio right now and thats just 1:1.1 !! Thats reeeeally low. I was thinking 25m from Italy (slightly lower than Ratatouille) and 45m from Germany (5m below Ratatouille) but the exchange rates wouldn't allow that. Unless this breaks out big in both markets the more realistic expectations would now be 16-19m for Italy and 35-38m for Germany, for a total of 50-55m. Combined with my other predictions that would lead to an OS-C gross of 745m. Now I have been conservative for other markets and so slightly better than expected returns from any one of them would still get this to 750m OS-C.
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I think $350m is definitely happening for IO. It'll be past $330m by the end of this weekend, and it's easily going to pass $340m by the time UNCLE/Compton open.
Yeah, 360m is the target now. If this indeed drops just around 25% or even less this weekend, that may start appearing possible too.
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How much is IO expected to do here? Can it get past 30m and close to 35m? Or will piracy affect it a lot?
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How much is IO expected to here? Can it get close to 20m Euros?
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P.S - PDC, I am perfectly aware of the fact that it will still end up almost 300m behind JW
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IO may actually maintain 1m+ daily grosses throughout the week. Which would mean it would have its first <1m day next Monday which would in turn mean that this will have the same number of continuous days over 1m as JW even after a OW 14m less than half of JW
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Good hold for IO.
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In 2012, Avengers did about 570m yuan in China. MI4 did some months earlier 680m yuan (over $100m). I do not see so crazy to think in $200m or even more for MI5.
Yeah, but MI was already an established franchise by that point while Avengers was a new property (all the previous marvel properties had pretty avg numbers even for the time). I don;t think MI5 will have as much of a increase as AOU. Amd I did not say it was crazy to expect that. I just said it was 'slightly optimistic'. It may indeed make that much and even more. But I am going a bit on the conservative side. Maybe my 175-185m range was a little too low though. 180m+ should happen if this was able to cross 100m in 2012.
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SW is actually a highly known property here:
EP3 was #5 2005
EP2 was #4 2002
EP1 was #2 1999
Though that was a bit different of era.
Both EP7 and SB should have a shot for top 10 of 2016 though there are many even stronger contenders. KFP3 is a lock for 2016 top 10.
Hmm, I see. Thanx for the info
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IO may open low in China, but it will have pretty great legs...... Even from $10m opening, I can see it doing $50m.
Even though I hope the same, I don't think that (a 5x multi) is gonna happen. The market's quite different from all others. Firstly its very difficult to have such a multi when you only have a single month. Due to this very reason leggy movies are always at a loss in this market compared to frontloaded ones. Secondly, such a multi would require the movie to be greatly loved. But the truth is, as good as IO is, it is not really one that will connect much with the chinese audience. They like comedy and action movies instead of philsophical and thoughtful ones or movies with abstract concepts like IO. Also, the movie somehow doesn't seem to me as one that will work too well with dubbing or subbing (in a different language) which may also hurt it. Still, while the first two points apply to all movies, the later two are not necessary. This may indeed be loved by the chinese audience and be subbed/dubbed very well. And even if thats not completely the case 50-60m is no more too big a sum in China, hence my expectations. But if it does get a very bad release date as Kylin is implying and is also not loved by the GA then it may indeed fall quite below the expectations.. Still, thats a worst-case scenario and I am hopeful this atleast cross 50m there with a good opening and above avg legs.
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MI5 - $200M
Minions - $100M
T5 - $80M
No, Minions is definitely gonna make more, around 150m. And that seems slightly optimistic for MI5. Even though its a major property there and the market has grown a lot one must remember that their are still very few movies to have crossed 200m mark there. The only HW movies to have ever done so are Avatar with 207 or something, JW and AOU with around 230, T4 with 319 and FF7 with 390. I don't think MI5 is gonna join that league or come that close to such highly anticipated mega blockbusters as JW and AOU. I think 175-185m will be a better range.
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963,763 admissions.
Seems pretty low but I guess this is the average level for animated movies here. Anyways as per Rsyu animated films don't make much here due to being considered childish or only-for children stuff. In that case, a movie that actually perfectly fits that description (Minions) shouldn't be able to make much here either, I think.
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About 60k
Hmm. Well, my assumption was based on the, er, assumption that SW is not a highly known property here and that it should thus not be a highly anticipated one either whereas KFP3 must be comparitvely much more highly anticipated.... So what does this mean? SW is actually quite popular here? Or that KFP3 is not really as highly anticipated as many of us may believe? Or is this isn't really supposed to mean anything since they its still really early for all of them?
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While no one can prove it, I think the impact of all the manipulations combined on the release of imported films should be no more than 10% of the total box office these films are generating. For instance, total imported gross looks to be around 18B. But without the manipulations, it is still unlikely to go beyond 20B IMO. (That's still less than 50% of the yearly gross).
Despite a quota of 34 RS titles and 20-plus buyouts, only a handful of HLW blockbusters could have some size-able staying power after 30 days in release. As for the bad release dates, many fans and moviegoers who want to see these movies would see it anyway.
By my guess, if we divide the current cinema audience in China into groups, 30% of them basically only go to imported movies, 30% of them go to both imported and local movies, 40% of them basically only go to local movies.
Only go to imported movies? Is that even possible? I can believe, and understand why, a lot of people only watch local stuff but why would anyone in any country only watch foreign stuff? And even if we believe there are some people who do so I really can't believe 30% of the moviegoers would fall into that category.
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I don't think it can make more than $30M in China.
It will get a post-Golden week release.
30m due to sucky release date? Won't Disney try to get it a better release date? 30m seems really bad... Needs atleast 40-50m from China to pass 800m. Nonetheless, I trust you. Well lets hope it surprises
Tbh it doesn't even really mean or matter much but for some reason I just wanted it to stay above the mark throughout the week and am happy that's happening. Will tie with JW for the highest no of consecutive days, this year (yet), above 1m$.
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Thursday #s: The Tom Before The Cruise
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I would definitely love to see Titanic climbing up the charts and understanding how it did so. I love your charts. Thanx a lot for posting them