[Chasmmi's Winter Game Week 3: Our Brand was burnt by Zombies]

Here Goes

Part 1:

1. Will a new opener debut at number 1? NO

2. How many films ill make more than 10M this weekend? 3000 TWO

3. Will Burnt finish above Bridge of Spies? NO

4. Will Jobs stay in the top 8? YES

5. Will Scouts Guide make at least 40% of its opening weekend on Friday?  YES

 

6. Which of Week 2's openers will have the highest percentage drop? 2000 Jem

7. Will Jem and the Holograms finish in the top 20? YES

8. Will Paranormal Activity decreased more than 42% on Sunday? YES

9. Will the Last Witch Hunter finish above Steve Jobs? YES

10. Will Our Brand is Crisis make more than 3.5M on Saturday? NO

 

11. Will at least 2 films in the top 12 not drop any positions this weekend?2000 YES

12. Will Goosebumps gross at least double the weekend gross for Last Witch Hunter? NO

13. Will Hotel Transylvania's Saturday gross be higher than Scout Guides' total weekend Gross? NO

14. Will the Walk drop at least 67% this weekend? NO

15. Are zombies, Witches, ghosts or Vampires the biggest threat to our souls this Halloween? NO, these fkin' awful & flop movies are

 

Part 2.

1. What will The Intern gross on .795m

2. What will be the combined weekend gross of the 3 main new entries? 15.9m

3. What will Rock the Kasbah's percentage drop be this weekend? -63.1%

 

Part 3.

1. The Martian

3. Bridge Of Spies

7. Last Witch Hunter

9. Paranormal Activities 5

12. The Intern

2000 each and 5000 bonus for all 5.

 

Good Luck

[China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26]

Well....if $600M or higher, happens in China for IW2.....it could maybe beat Titanic, WW-wise.

 

 

Highly possible. This 600 should be accompanied with another 600 from US. And rest of the markets should be strong too, it being the culmination of all the films before it and possibly one of the most anticipated and grandest finale in film history. So 2.1B is my predict right now for it.

[China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26]

Infinity war 1 500m 

Infinity War 2 600m

 

And happy birthday Olive!!

 

 

 

And btw these numbers may be looking big but even with just 30% growths till 2019 Avengers 2's 240m total here, and it wasn't even liked much leading to a worse than should-have-been multiplier, would convert to 527m in 2018 and and 685m in 2019. Plus the marvel brand is getting stronger. Plus those will be the finale movies with all the heroes. Plus Infinity War 2 would be the finale of this so-long saga. So yeah, I think these numbers shouldn't be tough.

[Weekend estimates: 15.90 M THE MARTIAN | 15.50 M GOOSEBUMPS | 11.37 M BOS | 10.83 M TLWH | 9.00 M HT II | 8.20 M PA: TGD | 7.27 M STEVE JOBS]

Pretty low I'd say. However it should have a good shot at 75m. 

 I Personally see it crossing 80m. 100 is indeed really tough still but if it has similarly awesome drops the next few weeks I can see that as a possibility. But yeah I guess a better target would be BoS total over Goosebumbps total.

[Weekend estimates: 15.90 M THE MARTIAN | 15.50 M GOOSEBUMPS | 11.37 M BOS | 10.83 M TLWH | 9.00 M HT II | 8.20 M PA: TGD | 7.27 M STEVE JOBS]

So, is it time to to start a BoS over 100m Dom club? What would be the chances for that? 

[China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26]

Infinity war 1 500m 

Infinity War 2 600m

 

And happy birthday Olive!!

 

 

 

[Weekend estimates: 15.90 M THE MARTIAN | 15.50 M GOOSEBUMPS | 11.37 M BOS | 10.83 M TLWH | 9.00 M HT II | 8.20 M PA: TGD | 7.27 M STEVE JOBS]

Looks like martian wins the weekend while Jobs absolutely screws everyone's winter game this weekend.

[The Peanuts Movie OS Thread]

300 OS for 500 WW

[Winter SOTM 2: When our horrors combine... (Deadline is 29th Oct 11:59pm)]

7) Ghostbusters 2

[Chasmmi's Winter Game, Week 2: The Week that Box Office Forgot]

Part 1​

1. Will Goosebumps stay at number 1 this weekend? 3000 NO

2. Will Jem and the Holograms finish above Paranormal Activity?​ NO

3. Will the Last Witch Hunter open in the top 3? YES

4. How many of the 4 main new entries will open in the top 5? 2000 ONE

5. Will the Martian remain in the top 3? YES

6. Will Crimson Peak drop more than 62%? NO

7. Will Jobs make more than Bridge of Spies this weekend? YES

8. Name any film in the top 12 that drops less than 30% this weekend without increasing (put none if you think none)? 3000 Bridge Of Spies

9. Will pan finish above Sicario? NO

10. Will Hotel Transylvania have the best Saturday increase? YES

11. Will Rock the Kasbah have a better Friday than Jem and the Holograms? YES

12. Will the Intern remain in the top 9? NO

13. Which of the 4 new openers will have the best PTA? Paranormal Activity

14. Will Jem bomb completely and make less than $2M this weekend? NO

15. Will anybody go to the cinema this weekend? Well, these are Americans we are talking about, buddy...

Bonuses:

11/15 2000

12/15 4000

13/15 6000

14/15 8000

15/15 10000

Part 2.

Bonus Question 1. What will be the total weekend gross for Jem and the Holograms? (5000) 4.12m

​​Bonus Question 2. What will Job's Weekend percentage change be? (5000) 1543%

Bonus Question 3. What will be Maze runner's total gross by Sunday? ​ (5000) 78.01m

Part 3.​​

Placements:

1. Steve Jobs

4. Goosebumps

6. Paranormal Activities

9. Rock The Kasbah

12. Sicario

200o points per correct prediction. 5000 bonus for getting all 5.

Good Luck

[Tuesday numbers: Martian 2.1 | Bridge of Spies 1.8 | Goosebumps 1.47 | Crimson Peak 1.18 | Jobs 134.7k]

Bridge of Spies has been holding pretty well.

[BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW]

Hope it reaches 4m admissions

It should.

[The 25 most rewatchable films]

No movie, none, comes close to Andaz Apna Apna for me - the best Indian comedy of all time and among its finest films ever. After that's its probably Life Of Pi. Other than those, Nemo, Matrix 1, LOTR 1, Back To the Future 1, some animated classics (Disney, Pixar and anime mostly) are the first ones that come to mind.

[BRIDGE OF SPIES | 10.16.15 | Disney | final domestic gross: $72,313,754]

Man, I went too overboard predicting this film. I predicted 155m Dom and 340m WW for the pic!! I just thought with such great reviews and Hanks and Spielberg and all 3 things having worldwide appeal this could do really well but the cold war appears to have become pretty uninteresting for the audience.. Dom at least. Still it's definitely gonna have wonderful legs ( it's Monday already was greater than goosebump's). So I believe this can crawl past a multiplier of 6 for a near 95m final total.

[Weekend Actuals - Bumps 23.6, Martian 21.3, Bridge 15.4, Peak 13.1, Hotel 12.6]

So the Black mass is actually 13th?

[INSIDE OUT | 501.1 M overseas | 857.6 M worldwide]

It underperformed in Brazil,Japan and China...but 500 os is still excellent result for an original property..moreover IO was a tough sell...

It over performed in a lot more markets - South Korea, UK, Mexico, Italy, Germany, US, Venezuela, Some other smaller European markets like Austria and Scandinavia and some smaller South East Asian markets like Philippines to name a few.

[INSIDE OUT | 501.1 M overseas | 857.6 M worldwide]

23m more from Germany 4m more from Italy, 7-8 more from china, 1-2 more from US and maybe 2-3 more from the other remaining markets, seems most probable right now and would leave us with 860-861m. Can make 1-2 more in Germany, 1-2 more, at most, in China, 1 more in Italy and probably .5-1 more in Rest of the world and DOM for 865-867m but that's the highest possible range and would require some great holds. So, Can get to 865m but it's gonna be difficult.

 

Held better than expected in Germany, should end up making around 4m more than my above modest predict, held worse than hoped in China will make at least 1m less than what I hoped for, dropped just 15%in US, don't know about Italy or the rest of the world. Seems to be heading around 861-862m.

[Official Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps - 23.5M; The Martian - 21.5M; Bridge of Spies - 15.4M; Crimson Peak - 12.9M (Page 1)]

Still, I really hoped BoS could reach 20m. I know Cold war isn't that hot a topic nowadays and the movie doesn't involve much action but 20's not really that big a sum to ask for and this had Spielberg and Hanks. If released alongside a little less competition or if buoyed by a better marketing campaign I have no doubt this would have crossed 20m. Anyways I still hope for at least a 5x Multi.

[INSIDE OUT | 501.1 M overseas | 857.6 M worldwide]

Why they love it so much? It did 0.5m in the first day only 1/4 of minions..

That's so not the question. The Real question is why didn't the other markets love it as much (and I know the possible reasons, I am not asking, just giving the perspective).

[South Korea Box Office]

I think I've seen a poster with January on it. I have to assume it's getting a Korean New year release.

Really good for it. Really bad for my game. Why the f*** did I not ask this earlier? That makes my prediction go off by at least 60m (unless it doesn't perform upto my expectations in China which would be even worse). Have their been negative final scores in the winter game or BSG before or am I going to be the first one?

[Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!]

Also WW grosses were hard to predict, especially since I only started research and compiling the lists a few hours before deadline. They weren't clear at all for a lot of movies. For example KFP3 had been listed on IMDB as only having confirmed release dates in China, US and Russia among major markets during the game's timeframe. Most of Europe and Latin America was listed for release after 17 the March. But a number of main markets had no release dates listed, such as South Korea where it's easily gonna make 60-70m at least. So it was totally confusing wher to include these markets in their totals or not. Also I included China grosses for both Star wars and good dinosaur but it turned out yesterday that both of them wouldn't be released there this year due to quota having been met. So one can only hope they would get released there before Feb.

[Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!]

One question I had quite some difficulty in making my mind about was whether Star wars' UK plus Aus total gross would be more than its Dom OW. At first I thought it definitely would but then found out that all three prequels had made just 25-30m in Aus. Now it was already difficult to decide what the OW would be. I was thinking 180 but Christmas could bring it down to 160 or The hype could take it past 200. Anyways for the question I decided to go with 180. Now to decide the probable ranges for UK and Aus grosses. I thought it shouldn't go above 45-50m in Aus. For UK 100+ was a good target but Skyfall got to 160m and star wars is really popular there too. Anyways I decided to go with 130m. That would make the total for both places be 1755, so just a 5 mil difference. And yet this could be more and OW could be less. Still, I ended up answering No (I.e - OW will be bigger) but now think I should have answered otherwise...

[BO Germany/Austria: Inside Out 2 #1 with best 2024 OW]

Any Updates ?

[Official Weekend Estimates: Goosebumps - 23.5M; The Martian - 21.5M; Bridge of Spies - 15.4M; Crimson Peak - 12.9M (Page 1)]

So what will be the "adult" movies breakouts of the season ?

I consider a breakout around 70-80m by the way, stop obsessing with the 100m mark people, it s bad for your skin.

Big breakout is around 120-130m + ...

Steve Jobs ?

Joy ?

Revenant ?

Spotlight ?

Truth ?

Carol ?

Suffragette ?

Room ?

Hateful Eight ?

The Big Short ?

Danish Gurl ?

Place your bets for I have no clue.

Even though a movie like Room is so small that a small bo take would make it a success, it s all relative to the size of the movie.

1) The Revenant

2) Hateful 8

3) Joy

4) Jobs

None other is breaking out. The first three should pass 100m. Jobs should get a 25-30m OW and get to something close to 85-90.

[THE GOOD DINOSAUR | 209.1 M overseas | 332.2 M worldwide]

I target 700m and hope for 800. 450+ OS would be awesome. And if it turns out really good 500m is achievable too. Anything above 650m is easily a success for Pixar though.