Infernus
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Posts posted by Infernus
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I know some people would be shocked if said this...but Disney's The Little Mermaid isn't really the best Disney from the 80's that I have seen. (Yes, Little Mermaid was released in 1989.)
It's pretty good, but I have seen more better Disney films from that decade IMO, like The Great Mouse Detective, The Fox and the Hound & Oliver & Company.
Yeah, surprisingly, I completely agree with you. I have always felt Disney's animal/other-non-humans centered movies were much better than the human centered ones (I am counting Beauty and The Beast in the first category though), except for Aladdin and maybe one or two others . From its Robin Hood to The Great Mouse detective, I love nearly all of its non-human centered films of the 20th Century. Infact, Even today I'd say Wreck it Ralph and Big Hero 6 were much better than both Frozen and Tangled.
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DiCaprio has never had a performance that I'd say is the best of the year.
Joaquin Phoenix and probably Ryan Gosling are the best workin actors right now and need to work more.
Di Caprio is easily the best actor out there now and has been so since probably Titanic. He consistently gives amazing performances. No actor comes even close to his consistency. Yeah his performances may not always be the best of the year and his performances may be surpassed by other actors in certain movies but no other actor's career comes even close to matching his career as a whole.
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Avatar, Aliens, The matrix, Terminator are not science fictoin. They are fantasy.
Going by that, even The Time Machine or The Invisible Man wouldn't be science fiction books and yet they are the prime example of the genre. So these movies (except avatar which really is mostly fantasy) are indeed science fiction, it's just that you've got a wrong idea of what sci-fi actually is or means.
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Don't worry, the studio will try their best to give this the best possible release date which would also be easier due to Chinese involvement with the film. If they feel the release date isn't too good they will change it. Also this doesn't need good WOM/release date and other factors to break out. It will break out simply by the virtue of what it is and by virtue of the market's growth. In contrast, it will need bad WOM and a lot of other bad things for it to 'not' breakout. 300m would still be guaranteed. Just because a spin-off and one movie didn't play to the expectations doesn't mean you can ignore how almost every single other movie outperformed and increased from their previous parts in complete accordance with the market's growth, as you are. It may not end up as the highest grossing movie of the next year but it's definitely gonna be among the top and that itself means at least 330-350m. I personally still stand firm at it crossing FF7.I don't call 60m for Minions a flop. It's an underperformance but not a flop at all.
Let alone a 'massive' one!
I still think Panda will not cross 300m in China, its release date is not good, as per Kylin. So it will need WOM but that alone, as in the case of MI5, doesn't guarentee a breakout. It needs a good release date.
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Sorry for the lots of spelling mistakes in the above post. Corrected them now
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OK here's the fact - competition plays very little role in both China and Japan. Very little role. Many big films coexist in both markets without losing money. For example TMK, MH and JBM all three mega giant blockbusters in China were released in two consecutive weekends just earlier this year. It's clear competition doesn't affect as long as audience wants to see a movie. MI5 had a very good release date in China with minimal competition and none affecting the same target. And even in markets where competition matters highly and there actually was a lot of completion to face for a movie, movies still hardly lose 15% -20% of what they could have made, excepting severe cases. So no way in hell did MI5 lose 60m in China. It would have probably made 15m more with terminator's release date due to blackout ending affect. No moreIt is just your opinion! I don`t change and won`t change mine! I didn`t say about some crazy and fantastic numbers (100 mil more from that market and 150 mil more from that...). I imagine box-office like a pie, so if you are stronger - bigger piece of pie you can get! Jurassic World obviously was much stronger (the worldwide grosses simply proves it) than MI5 - i still believe that without that rival 60 mil from Japan were sure thing!.....
In Japan it had virtually the best release date possible for any movie - at the helm of the golden week! Obviously there would be competition during such a fantastic period but firstly competition doesn't matter in that market much and secondly any loss was recovered due to the busy holiday period. If it had been released at another date it would have lost on all the extra money it made due to the holiday season. If you don't believe me you can ask anyone in the Japan thread and they'd tell you that there's no way in hell it lost more than 5-6m by virtue of its release date. Do you even realise 30m more means 80% more!
As for Korea, competition plays little role there too. But this was a special case being sandwiched right between two mega hits. It did lose some money due to this but no more than possibly 10-15m.
So that means at most it lost out 15m+5m+15m = 35m. No more.
You can ask whoever you want to, in their respective threads if you don't believe me and you'll get the same answer.
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BTW I guess it passed the 800m milestone today (Tuesday) with the the 4.6m from china and Monday-Tuesday grosses from Germany and other markets.
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Is there a chance Inside Out could hit $900 million worldwide?
My guess at the moment is $880 million which is out of this world for an original film. The majority of franchise films last year could not break the $750 million barrier and only transformers manage to.
Yeah my guess is 870-885 too. 900 seems improbable to me unless it turns out the Chinese actually really liked it and this has awesome holds there for 60-65m.
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Pixar always has notoriously bad trailers, that's for sure. The sole exceptions being almost all of Wall-E's and almost all of IO's. IO's "More Than a Feeling" one is the best trailer I've ever seen for one of their movies by a long shot.
Yeah IO's trailers were really good, really made me wanna see the movie. The 2nd trailer especially was one the best I had ever seen (I don't see a lot of trailers though).
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So the final box office in China could be $40-50 mil? Hopefully, it has great wom and legs.
Will only be in the market for a month. Too little time for WOM to be a big help. Moreover the WOM isn't really too good there (as per a few Chinese members of the forums) so it's not really gonna help anyway. 35-40m is the most probable range right now.
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Actually this is one of those rare movies that played very close to the expectations. Most of them were between 30-50m and its looking at a total exactly in the middle of that range. A few did predict a little higher (60-70m at best) but those were just hopeful predictions and the predictors themselves realised that.
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Yeah Star wars has the biggest chance among upcoming movies but 825m won't be an easy number for even star wars. It's super huge in Europe (which is highly affected by xchange rate issues right now) but isn't big enough in Asia (which plays a major role even without China) except for Japan. But South Korea may come to the aid since it seems to love science fiction movies. Then If it manager good numbers in Latin America it would easily pass the number. Still I guess it has 60:40 chances of passing it and not passing it. Anything between 780-900 is highly probable.The international run of Jurassic World and Minions comes to an end and Frozen has still the biggest OS gross outside USA and China since 2011's HP 7.2 (and the 4th biggest ever). Which movie will be able to beat this number? Maybe Star Wars 7?
Top 5
Avatar 1823
Titanic 1338
HP 7.2 900
Frozen 825
TA 810
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Yeah, releasing late seems to have done the trick for IO. Seeing how the OW in these two markets were huge unlike the avg openings in most other European markets it seems some WOM had already spread to these territories.IO will ALMOST DEFINITELY beat Minions in Italy.
I would never have expected this, especially given how well Minions performed in Italy.
And now it's shaping up to have a similarly impressive run in Germany.
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So what total does that opening indicate for IO (in dollars or euros), if we expect an above avg multiplier?
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It will be difficult since WOM is just above average.
So most probably it's looking to end somewhere slightly above 35m? Well that's alright I guess. 850m still happening.
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That not true. It's just that their last film was released 2 years ago, when the market was smaller. $34M back then was an ok number.
Yeah it was pretty good for an animated movie back then. That translates to around atleast 70m today.
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reviews are very good - wom let's see, it's been in release just for 2 days
Yeah, I know but, I meant like how does the WOM seem to be shaping up? What have you heard about it from friends or someone..
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It's weird that IO had amazing WOM everywhere else.....except for China.
It hasn't even been released here yet...
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Projections:
$421M until now
$25M more from existing markets
$40M from Germany + Austria
$60M from China
ONA Total: $546M
Domestic Total: $354M
WW Total: $900M (lol, I didn't mean to make predictions that would add up to this number but they did)
So 900m is finally actually looking possible! That would be incredible!
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So what kind of total (money wise) does that indicate for IO? Also, how are the regional reviews and the WOM?
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Exactly, it will rebound big over the weekend. And legs will be as good as other countries. Monsters University did $12m here....i think $15m is a good benchmark.
Yeah, and with at least 25m from Germany That would mean the movie will have a final OS-C gross of at least 800m. That would be more than enough to satisfy everyone I believe. Whatever it then makes in China would just be a bonus.
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Yeah, animated movies still haven't reached the level of live action movies even now and yet KFP2 was the highest grossing movie of its year back on 2011... That is exactly what I'm saying. KFP3 is simply above the level of other animated movies. It is not to be compared with them or gauged by their current level. Instead it is to be compared with what the top movies of the year are making. And as for WOM, yeah it's absolutely necessary for a movie to have really good WOM to reach some numbers. My predictions are based on the belief that the movie would be a good one and especially made to suit the Chinese taste. In the end I do realize it is completely possible for it end up at much lower than I expect it to and disappoint like AOU in US but that's what I am saying-if it does end up at close to just 250 it will and should be considered a disappointment just like AOU was considered a disappointment at 450m in the US. 250-300 while a definitely possible range, will not be one I 'expect' for it but what I'll be considering as the possible 'disappointment' range for it.We just need to take into consideration that toons just havent gone to these big live action levels. That's why minions was over forecasted. So KFP3 shoudnt be forecasted to exceed 400m just because it should beat this years record breakers, FF7 MH, due to expected market growth. The market will be up 250% since KFP2 was released. That would make it $320m, but it was a huge breakout hit above all other toons at 92m and could take a step backwards like AOU did in domestic or third installments of many franchises like shrek, PotC and HG. That puts it in the mid 200m's after adjusting for market growth and taking a "hit" so to speak. And that makes sense. That would be more than 50% over TMK which is a big leap into record territory.
250-325m is a reasonable expectation with all the competition it will face and if it lacks WOM it could be lower. You have to remember not all sequels are slam dunks when it comes big numbers. WOM makes a movie a true blockbuster and "the mob is fickle, brother"- Gladiator
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Whatever for minions. I am still not dramatically lowering my predictions for KFP3. Below 350m would still be a disappointment for me and I am still expecting it to be among the top 2 (or at min top 3 grossers for next year). Do you guys think the top movies of next year will be below this year's top ones? That isn't even possible right now. We're you guys basing KFP3's performance on how minions will perform? Coz I definitely wasn't. I was and am still basing its performance on how much the top movies of the year are making and not on how the other animated movies are doing for this isn't in their league. And what about the fact that's it getting released nearly at the same time here as everywhere else and also on a very good date? I just read this guy who was earlier predicting 500m for it and actually fighting with all those saying otherwise saying that he doesn't think it's going above the 250-300 range anymore. How easily can you guys be wavered? It really kind of proves these guys just put out random numbers or go with the whatever others are saying and makes it more and more difficult to really take such guys seriously..
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Well, atleast MI5 stayed above 55m for the weekend. Thats a victory, I believe. Should have good enough legs for 175m+ total
Unpopular movie opinions.
in The Speakeasy
Posted
To finally get it out - Wreck It Ralph is easily the best Disney (not including Pixar of course) animated film since 2000. Its atleast 10 times better than both Tangled and Frozen (I think both were just good). Infact I dont even think this is really an unpopular opinion outside internet. I haven't met a single person yet who has watched all three or any two of the three (including Ralph) and who doesn't agree with me.