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MinaTakla

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  1. Updated actuals and breakdowns

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic:  $254,603,760    26.2%
    Foreign:  $718,044,506    73.8%

    = Worldwide:  $972,648,266

     

    UPDATED: Illumination’s Despicable Me 3 grossed $13.1m in 58 territories for an international total of $718m. With North America’s $254.6m, the film stands at $972.6m worldwide.

    Italy produced $6.5m in week one, making it the biggest animation opening weekend of 2017 and the second best Illumination opening, behind Minions, in the market. Turkey generated $786,000 in week one to become the number one Illumination opening weekend there.

    China remains the highest grossing market on $152.2m; followed by the UK on $58.2m; Germany $40.5m; Brazil $38.7m; France $38.6m; and Mexico $34.8m.

    Russia has generated $25.8m; Australia $25.1m; Argentina $23.7m; Spain $22.7m; South Korea $21.4m; the Netherlands $11.4m; Poland $9.4m; Chile $7.4m and Colombia $7.1m. The film debuts in Greece on August 31.

  2. 8 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

    Deadline is incorrect, DM3 is not the best Illumination opening in Turkey.

    It probably still is, but in local currency. This was a release from the studio. The way Uni. counts it is in local currency not in dollars.

    For example DM3 is now the 2nd highest grossing film of the series in the UK after DM2. However that's in local currency only and not in USD because the ER crumbled

  3. 8 hours ago, Asyulus said:

    What was Minions OW in Turkey? Can DM3 reach $70m in Japan?

    In Turkey, Minions opened with 3.35m Turkish Lira (around $838K). It ended up making $4.1m by the end of its run.

    In Japan, Corpse (Japanese BO expert) said last week that the film will probably make around $65m. Variety however expects it to finish around $70m. 

    http://variety.com/2017/film/asia/japan-box-office-high-low-the-movie-2-top-1202535233/

    Today or tomorrow, Variety will publish a new article with a new prediction for Japan.

  4. DEADLINE

    DESPICABLE ME 3

    Universal/Illumination

    Illumination/Universal’s threequel grossed an estimated $12.6M in 58 territories for an international total of $717.2M. Worldwide, it’s at $971.7M. Italy was a key start this session at No. 1 with $6.3M. That’s the best animated launch of the year in a market that likes Illumination movies. It’s the second best bow for the brand there behind only Minions.

    Turkey also had a strong opening with $777K and 50% of the market. It landed No. 1 and is Illumination’s best-ever debut.

    After its 6th week in Japan, where films tend to build slowly, DM3 now has a total $56.2M.

     

    There is one more territory to go with Greece opening this coming frame and as the movie sidles up to the $1B worldwide mark.

     

    http://deadline.com/2017/08/valerian-china-wonder-woman-american-made-weekend-results-international-box-office-1202156977/

    • Like 1
  5. DM3 Weekend estimates are in. If my calculations are correct, DM3 is now the 3rd highest animated film OS of all time after Frozen and Minions.

     

    Total Lifetime Grosses
    Domestic:  $254,486,755    26.2%
    Foreign:  $717,200,000    73.8%

    = Worldwide:  $971,686,755  
    • Astonished 1
  6. $1.5m Saturday for DM3. Projected weekend around $6.4-6.5m. Around 80-81% of Minions OW. (6.45 average/8 = 0.8) 

     

    Minions (dollars in 2015 Exchange rates)

    DM3 (dollars in 2017 Exchange rates)

     

    OD Thurs $2.25

    OD Thurs $1.85

    Fri $1.75m (-22%)

    Fri $1.38m (-25%)

    Sat $1.92m (+10%)

    Sat $1.5m (+9%)

    Sun $2.23 (+17%)

    Projected: $1.73 (+15%)

    OW: $8.0m

    Projected OW: $6.4 or $6.5m (80% of Minions OW which is $8m)

    Same result as most European markets most notably Spain (which typically follows Italy and vice versa). DM3 OW: $5.2, Minions OW: $6.2 (83.8% of Minions)

    • Like 2
  7. 19 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

    Either way, using Minions legs will put DM3 at $19m total. Bad number. What was BATB and Inside Out's first friday USD amount?

    Also like Omni said, I doubt the few extra millions (19m or 23m in Italy) would make the difference between DM3 crossing 1B comfortably or not. It's the holdover markets and a fine run in Italy that will seal the deal.

    Also 3.2(Minions legs)x 6.4m OW = 20.5m for DM3

    • Like 1
  8. 9 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

    Either way, using Minions legs will put DM3 at $19m total. Bad number. What was BATB and Inside Out's first friday USD amount?

    It's not a bad number imo, it's fine. Not groundbreaking but not bad. In most European markets, DM3 ended up making around 80% of Minions in each market. It's Asia and Latin America where it did much more business. 80% of Minions' 26m = 20.8. DM3 can still cross 20m imo in Italy. It wasn't going to make like 25m there.

    DM3's Friday is still higher than BATB (1.2m) and Inside Out (1m)

    • Like 1
  9. 27 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

    Dissapointing friday number for DM3. Might not even get past $20m total.

     

    @MinaTakla What were the friday numbers (2nd day) of Minions, Finding Dory, BATB, Pirates and blockbusters? In USD.

    Minions dropped -22.5% from its OD to Friday scoring $1.87m USD. DM3 dropped -25% from its OD to Friday scoring $1.39m USD. So they are very similar so far.

    Pirates was about 900k USD on its first Friday (second day).

    Dory was around 850K USD on its first Friday (second day).

    FF8 was at 2.7m euro on its first 2 days.

    DM3 is at 2.75m euro on its first 2 days. ($3.2m USD)

  10. 15 minutes ago, Asyulus said:

    @MinaTakla Is $20m Italy for Despicabl3 looking likely?

     

    Is it good or bad? €1.55m OD

    According to Italian box office sites, DM3 scored the highest opening day for a Hollywood movie in 2017 in Italy. The opening day is more than Beauty and the Beast, Fast and Furious 8, Pirates 5, Guardians and other Hollywood releases in Italy. It's also higher than Jurassic World, Batman V Superman, Avengers, Civil War, Fantastic Beasts and others.

    Comps:

    Minions: around 2m euro ($2.3m) on its first day in Italy. Ended with $26.5m. 

    DM3 made around $1.83m.

    DM2 did 0.48m euro ($560K) on its first day in release but it was in October.

    Pets scored around $400K opening day last year.

    Finding Dory: 506K euro ($600K) opening day in 2016, ended with $17.5m. 

    Beauty and the beast - 842K euro ($993K) opening day - ended with $23m - highest grossing film of the year in Italy.

    Pirates: 0.785 euro ($922K) opening day - ended with $15m in Italy. 

    Furious 8: 1.45m euro opening day ($1.77m) - ended with around $16.5m in Italy.

    In order to assess how much the weekend will be, perhaps tomorrow's gross and Saturday will give us a better idea.

     

  11. 16 hours ago, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

    Right now, I need to talk to my brother, but I'm planning:

     

    SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 9TH
    12pm: Death of Stalin

    Evening: I don't know about this one. Big Bad Fox, Good Favour, and Beyond Words all look good. Any thoughts, @Stutterng baumer Denbrough? Lodgers also looks interesting.

     

    SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 10TH

    Morning: Between Killing of a Sacred Dear and Suburbicon

    6:30pm: Florida Project

    9:30pm: Shorts Program

    I saw Big Bad Fox at Annecy and it was hilarious. Recommended. 

    • Like 2
  12. Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday August 22nd, 2017

        Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days
    - (5) The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature Open Road $947,770 +81% 4,003 $237   $19,147,389 12
    - (-) Menashe A24 $29,330 +35% 86 $341   $752,248 26
    - (-) Good Time A24 $19,383 +25% 20 $969   $376,334 12
    - (-) A Ghost Story A24 $6,094 +25% 39 $156   $1,524,178 47
    - (-) It Comes at Night A24 $440 +18% 3 $147   $13,877,639 75
    - (-) The Exception A24 $412 -60% 2 $206   $705,451 82
    • Like 1
  13. CORPSE - ACTUALS

     

    01 (---) ¥351,468,600 ($3.2 million), 0, ¥412,313,400 ($3.8 million), High & Low 2: End of Sky (Shochiku) NEW
    02 (---) ¥294,497,600 ($2.7 million), 0, ¥466,454,300 ($4.3 million), Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or the Bottom? (Toho) NEW
    03 (02) ¥276,814,200 ($2.5 million), -31%, ¥5,559,872,300 ($50.6 million), Despicable Me 3 (Toho-Towa) WK5
    04 (01) ¥254,860,600 ($2.3 million), -43%, ¥1,841,193,300 ($16.8 million), Spider-Man: Homecoming (Sony) WK2
    05 (03) ¥164,145,400 ($1.5 million), -17%, ¥2,197,594,100 ($20.0 million), I Want To Eat Your Pancreas (Toho) WK4
    06 (04) ¥104,420,900 ($956,000), -43%, ¥1,456,594,000 ($13.3 million), Transformers: The Last Knight (Toho-Towa) WK3
    07 (05) ¥100,426,500 ($919,000), -30%, ¥2,972,634,000 ($27.2 million), Pokemon: I Choose You! (Toho) WK6
    08 (06) ¥83,328,700 ($762,000), -38%, ¥3,480,224,800 ($32.3 million), Gintama (Warner Bros.) WK6
    09 (09) ¥72,299,500 ($662,000), -29%, ¥2,853,083,600 ($26.1 million), Mary and the Witch's Flower (Toho)
    WK710 (07) ¥64,643,600 ($592,000), -46%, ¥6,471,667,700 ($58.1 million), Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Disney) WK8
     
    High & Low 2: End of Sky came in a little lower than its predecessor by 14%, selling 266,064 admissions across 314 screens over the weekend frame, and 296,471 admissions since opening on Friday. The first film was very frontloaded, so I'm sure this one will be, too, especially since it opened at the end of Summer. I wouldn't expect more than ¥1.5 billion (~$15 million).F
     
    ireworks, Should We See It from the Side or the Bottom? delivered a solid second place debut, selling 220,018 admissions over the weekend frame across 299 screens, and 354,753 admissions since opening on Friday. It's the type of animated film that can develop incredible legs, over a 10 multiplier, but audience scores I've seen are very mixed... For now, I'd say a ¥2 billion (~$20 million) total is likely, but we'll have to wait and see where this goes.
     
    Despicable Me 3 became the highest-grossing non-Disney/Pixar imported animated film of all-time, and will become the first to ever reach ¥6 billion (~$55 million) or maybe even ¥7 billion (~$65 million). After five weeks in release, the third film -- in the recently announced highest-grossing animated franchise of all-time worldwide -- has sold over 4.7 million admissions. Illumination couldn't have hoped for more, and this result that's comfortably above the blockbuster milestone puts them on the same level as, if not above, Disney Animation/Pixar now in the market. 
     
    Spider-Man: Homecoming continues to outpace both Amazing Spider-Man films, and is on its way to a ¥3 billion+ (~$30 million) total. It'll become the sixth Spider-Man film to reach this milestone, and aside from the two Avengers films, the overall Spider-Man series is the only Marvel/DC franchise to reach said milestone -- very impressive, and interest remains high for the friendly-neighborhood Spider-Man in the market.
     
    I Want To Eat Your Pancreas delivered an excellent post-Obon Festival weekend drop, and will effortlessly achieve the most-impressive run this Summer in terms of legs (already near a 9 multiplier after just 4 weeks). It's likely headed for a total above ¥3 billion (~$30 million), which would give it a multiplier of almost 12.
     
    Pokemon: I Choose You! is on the cusp of ¥3 billion now, and it'll become the first film in the franchise since 2013 to reach the milestone. I don't think it'll quite make it to ¥3.5 billion (~$32/33 million), but the Pokemon Company and Toho has to be pleased with how well it recovered versus the last three/four films in the series.
     
    Gintama continues to perform very well, and will settle for about ¥4 billion (~$36/37 million); exceeding the milestone will depend on the final week of summer weekdays. It's the highest-grossing domestic live-action film this year, and it'll be tough to top.
     
    Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales remains in the Top 10 in its eighth weekend of release, which will probably be its last there. The fifth film in the Pirates franchise is still currently the lowest-grossing in the series, but I think it has just enough left in the sails to exceed the first film's ¥6.8 billion total. So, a total near ¥7 billion ($62/63 million) appears to be the landing spot and that should be enough to make it the #1 film of Summer 2017... unless Gru and his minions survive the post-Summer and manage to sink the ship.
    • Like 1
  14. VARIETY

     

    High & Low the Movie 2 End of Sky,” the third film in a multi-media project featuring the all-male dancing and singing group Exile Tribe, opened atop the Japanese box office. For the Aug. 19-20 weekend the film made $3.2 million on 266,000 admissions from 314 screens, with Shochiku distributing.

     

    The score was 27% weaker than the opening weekend of the first “High & Low” actioner about warring street gangs, which finished with $19 million following its July 2016 release. But it was 18% better than the second film, which earned $11 million in Oct. 2016.

     

    Toho-Towa’s “Despicable Me 3,” which had held the number one spot for four weekends, fell to number two with $2.5 million. The film passed the $48 million lifetime figure of “Despicable Me” and is forecast to finish around $70 million.

     

    Opening in third was “Fireworks, Should We See It from the Side or The Bottom?,” an animation by Akiyuki Shinbo based on a 1993 made-for-TV film by Shunji Iwai. Distributed by Toho on 301 screens, this time-traveling teen romance recorded $4.2 million in three days and looks likely to exceed $15 million.
  15. Weekend actuals

     

    Australia Box Office

    August 17–20, 2017

    (US $1 = 1.2611 Australian Dollar) 
     < Prev Wk Currency:  Next Wk > 
    TW LW Movie Studio Weekend Gross Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
    1 1 Annabelle: Creation WB $1,210,068 -33.2% 212 -19 $5,708 $3,638,623 2
    2 N The Dark Tower Sony $1,062,257 - 274 - $3,877 $1,111,733 1
    3 2 Dunkirk WB $879,569 -35.7% 300 -37 $2,932 $16,410,771 5
    4 N Logan Lucky Roadshow $725,036 - 303 - $2,393 $749,397 1
    5 N Hampstead E1 $585,839 - 236 - $2,482 $619,451 1
    6 3 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets E1 $434,715 -56.4% 303 -130 $1,435 $1,801,627 2
    7 4 War for the Planet of the Apes Fox $429,006 -48.7% 238 -77 $1,803 $7,704,455 4
    8 6 The Big Sick Roadshow $370,044 -43.2% 272 -3 $1,360 $2,797,899 3
    9 5 Atomic Blonde UPI $333,208 -53.3% 266 -57 $1,253 $3,505,364 3
    10 7 Baby Driver Sony $217,689 -47.8% 164 -55 $1,327 $10,293,355 6
    11 9 Spider-Man: Homecoming Sony $115,165 -51.1% 109 -64 $1,057 $20,176,707 7
    12 8 Wolf Warrior 2 CMC $113,796 -62.6% 21 - $5,419 $1,233,020 4
    13 11 Despicable Me 3 UPI $113,208 -8.6% 137 -21 $826 $25,858,817 10
    14 10 Wind River Icon $104,770 -39.4% 70 +3 $1,497 $429,407 2
    15 N Madame StCanal $80,393 - 28 - $2,871 $126,188 1
    16 12 Toilet: Ek Prem Katha Mindblow $63,459 -33.7% 16 - $3,966 $199,942 2
    17 15 Cars 3 Disney $51,874 -20.9% 86 -21 $603 $10,539,549 9
    18 13 The Trip to Spain Madman $46,655 -51.0% 57 -18 $819 $487,230 3
  16. WEEKEND ACTUALS

    INSIDEKINO

     

    Wochenende 33: 16.8.2017 - 20.8.2017
    Nr. Bes. % Ges. Wo. Film
    1 303.508 -35 2.080.816 3 Planet der Affen 3
    2 274.498 -38 3.351.205 4 Valerian
    3 271.614 -40 1.939.919 3 Cars 3
    4 197.594 -47 678.903 2 Annabelle 2
    5 186.644 --- 186.644 1 Atomic Blonde
    6 148.152 --- 148.152 1 Overdrive
    7 130.917 -36 5.171.263 7 DM 3
    8 126.618 -30 2.179.825 5 Dunkirk
    9 112.502 --- 112.502 1 Bigfoot Junior
    10 72.628 -49 266.035 2 Der dunkle Turm
  17. Here’s my analysis of DM3’s 1B chances for this week after actuals have come in.

    Two mathematical highlights this week: (1) DM3 had its best week-to-week drop ever since its launch thanks to Obon holidays in Japan.

    (2) For the second week in a row, DM3 continued to close the OS gap between it and Minions. After being around 3.3% behind Minions OS at the exact same markets and at the exact point in their runs, DM3 became just 2.7% behind it last week. This week, the film continued to close the gap. DM3 is now only 2.1% behind Minions OS at the exact point in their runs.

    Overseas Results:

    Minions: $712.875 million OS so far 

    (in exact same point of release as DM3 is now. This figure is in 2015 exchange rate and not adjusted to 2017 ER.)

    DM3$697.83 million OS so far (2.1% below Minions OS total at the same point in run)

    (latest figure after studio actuals came in today. This figure in exact same point of release as Minions. Figures are in 2017 ER and not adjusted to match 2015 ER of Minions)

    *Above grosses calculated as per numbers available on Box Office Mojo.

     

    Mathematically most likely case based on DM3 vs Minions comps: Using Peludo’s 779m adjusted total for Minions, DM3 can then end up with 97.9% x 779 = 762.5m OS. Combined with around 260 domestic, that gives us: 260 + 762.5 = 1,022.5B WW.

    Worst case: if the film drops 50% week-on-week every week from now on, it gets to 1.008B WW.

    Realistic case: So far, the film has been dropping around 40% drop on average every week. If it keeps this pace, this gives it around 1.020B WW.

     

    CC: @Omni@a2knet@FantasticBeasts@Asyulus@Stutterng baumer Denbrough

     

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