Mrstickball

$200? Should be more than that OS excluding China. It still has a ton of major markets to open in like the UK, Italy, Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Australia and Japan among others.

Wow. Midnights for Warcraft have almost surpassed Captain America's at 10 days out!

Do you have a daily list for X-Men?

Its going to shatter Fast & Furious 7's record, so I think that $350m is the minimal floor unless there's a crazy spat of piracy.

If anyone has more data, for fun, I am working on a Google-based spreadsheet regarding midnight/opening day numbers in China. I added what figures I've seen on these forums, but am still missing a fair bit of data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LMrgr_OHK5frM22dzht1DmyMtzO1P4Gp3mPtoyrt3oA/edit?usp=sharing

What was the record for MN showtimes?

There is a festival during its debut week so its in the realm of possibility.... Very small chance, but its a chance. Either way, it looks like it has a fantastic shot at $400m plus, which is probably going to be more than the rest of its international gross.

Congrats to the Chinese fans that are going to put this into the stratosphere. I used to play WoW many years ago with my wife as a tag-team. It was one of our favorite past-times for a year. If the movie is good, I hope the Chinese gross can justify additional movies, because I know that this is something I may like to see more of. I am starting to be very, very glad that Wanda bought out Legendary. It seems like some incredible foresight on their part. I hope this bodes well for the future of hybrid American-Chinese blockbusters.

In the US, movie-food culture is changing quite a bit.. My local theater does pizza, friend chicken, mozzarella sticks, and ice cream.. Probably bigger than popcorn/ect now. It was a genuine question - I have no idea if movie food-type culture is different from place to place.

Who is it losing screens to? Is there a list of screen counts for the various movies available? Also, I have a question for Olive or any of the Chinese moviegoers: What do you eat, if anything, at the movie theaters? I am curious what the theater experience is like in China.

Review scores are still a solid 8.4 with 21,000 reviews. AoU was at 7.1 from my understanding. Looks to set up a good run! https://movie.douban.com/subject/25820460/?from=showing

Ironically, its jumped to 8.5 in the past hour with 5,463 reviews.

I'd wait to see reviews more than anything. Zoo and TJB had good review scores from Chinese filmgoers. SW7 and BVS got slaughtered in WOM. KFP3 was a victim of its studio's own stupidity on release date.

Zootopia will earn quite a bit more than $15m from US+CAN.. Last weeks' total (Fri-Thurs) was $8.7m with a sub-20% WOW drop. Its looking at a 30% drop this week, down to about $6.1m. Assuming 30% drops from here on out, it would get at least $20m more. If it holds slightly better (25% drops on average), you're looking at $25m. Certainly up to Japan to break the $1b mark, but I think that it only needs about $60m LTD in Japan to hit the billion mark... But given its great legs so far, may add some padding to this great run.

I'm going to go with 645m OW, 1735m total. Hope its not too late to participate!

Its unreal to think that TJB is looking at a $20m THIRD weekend in China. Just wow.

Is there any comparable release that hit 8.2m 7-days before opening?

How is audience reaction to The Jungle Book? Does it have a shot at a good run? 80m RMB sounds pretty darn impressive for a Friday - any indication if it could grow on Sat/Sun?

Likely, the studio will have a press release shortly after the #s are confirmed for $500m. I would expect something like an announcement in a day or two at most.

What is the record for a martial arts action movie? I am unfamiliar with Chinese martial arts cinema grosses on the mainland. I am wondering what kind of projections are there for Ip Man 3 vs. the records for the genre?

The two weeks between Christmas Eve and New Years day are the closest thing we can compare to CNY, and I think that arguing their similarity makes perfect sense. Kids are out during those two weeks, and some offices/businesses do in fact close during that time. Factories and tech workers usually get them off.

I added day-over-day drops for reference. Naruto may do decently on its opening day.. $10m+ USD opening day, right?

Isn't this one of the first times a western movie has been extended in the era of limiting foreign films?

I think you'd be surprised how stupid people inside of vairous companies are. I used to run a video game forecasting company. The people that make the decisions are NOT the people that know better. Analysts/ect know a lot more, but the executives rarely take their input in regards to a launch or accurate forecasting of a game. It reminds me of one game that came out a few years ago (I won't say the name). The pre-sale metrics were quite good, and you had an indication it was going to do quite well, but the studio picked it up for almost nothing to translate to a new system. Once it launched, it sold extremely well for quite some time. As soon as it happened, our phone was ringing off the hook for more sales reports/analysis, because (what was to us, obvious), they had no idea would be a success, and they wanted follow-up information about other titles they needed to acquire. Congrats to Chinese theaters on CNY, by the way. Even as an American, I really enjoy seeing Chinese cinema grow, and begin to challenge the American movie industry... I hope that more great movies come to the US, and we can help add to their box office totals. Especially movies like Ip Man (one of my favorite movies ever).

When is Star Wars' last day in theaters? 8th? 9th?