KP1025

Will any film this year top Monster Hunt's gross?

398M is the highest single day gross of F7 in local currency. Although its final run was not far off at $391 million. All time highest grosses are in the list below, in local currency of course. 1 Monster Hunt 2.438 billion China 2015 2 Furious 7 2.427 billion United States 2015 3 Transformers: Age of Extinction 1.977 billion United States China 2014 4 Lost in Hong Kong 1.612 billion China 2015 5 Mojin: The Lost Legend 1.592 billion China 2015 6 Avengers: Age of Ultron 1.464 billion United States 2015 7 Goodbye Mr. Loser 1.441 billion China 2015 8 Jurassic World 1.420 billion United States 2015 9 Avatar 1.340 billion United States 2009 10 Lost in Thailand 1.268 billion China 2012

True. Although I have to wonder even with market expansion and inflation, can Avatar 2 match or surpass the original's gross. China alone hopefully should overcome that deficit in exchange rates.

Another poster calculated it a few pages ago. I think it was @peludo unless I'm mistaken.

I don't think beating Avatar was ever seriously considered once the OS numbers started coming in. We could see that it was definitely not coming even close to Avatar's gross in many European countries and Asia. The low exchange rates are just too big a hurdle right now unless a film truly breaks out in China to overcome it. Avatar adjusts to about $2.3 billion in today's exchange rates, so I think $2.1 billion for TFA is very impressive all things considered.

I think people should just be happy it's only the 3rd film ever to gross over $2 billion. Second film to do it in a single run (not factoring inflation).

I think the OS gross will slow down at some point. Look at the biggest markets and you can estimate around how much is left in each of them (UK, Germany, France, Japan, Australia, etc). I think just over $1 billion OS without China is around where it is headed.

Point Break aside (released early to avoid blackout period), when was the last time a Hollywood film released in China a week ahead of the US debut?

I think the problem is less WOM for KFP3 but rather the loss of screens on its 10 day from all the major local films coming out. It will have to make the vast majority of its gross before then.

Looks like it may fall short of Titanic's WW gross.

JW is probably not the best comparison for midnights. It opened on a weekday in China and despite its low OD, it had a phenomenal multiplier from great WOM.

It did quite well everywhere for the most part, but China really exploded its OS gross. $391 million was nearly 6x what FF6 made in China and way above anyone's expectations.

That is great news that it's picked up so fast in the last day. I'm hoping this means a much higher ceiling than previously predicted.

It's probably finishing around $2 billion without China, and that's the best case scenario. Presales aren't great for TFA in China right now, and some people think it may actually gross only $100 million there. Maybe $150 million upper end. It's definitely not getting anywhere close to Avatar's WW record unless it doubles the current #1 film in China (Monster Hunt at $393 million). There is a real possibility of TFA failing to surpass even Titanic's WW figure or Furious 7's OS gross.

Don't expect SW to break out in China. Presales are weak, and beating Titanic or Avatar's gross in China seems unlikely.

I completely agree. That is why I've always preferred this introduction to Pandora over the official trailer.

Read my follow up post. I didn't say the number is unrealistic (and in fact, I think that number is very likely). I was suggesting that to make the point that the Chinese government would not allow Star Wars to dominate the market because it is a Hollywood film would also mean that Avatar 2 would be subjected to the same rules. That means no exceptions or special favors when it comes to its release like the original Avatar had with its 2 month run time and less competition from local films.

I think Spider-Man 2 holds the previous record at 6 consecutive days over $20 million.

It is an amazing number for sure. Made close to JW and AoU in a far smaller market, although it did have 2 months in theaters. Wonder how much Avatar 2 can grow given 8 years of growth between the two. Can it be highest grossing film of all time again in China, or will there be too much competition in the market now?

Who can forget this little gem.

Here is the list of highest grossing movies in China in local currency. F7 adjusts to about $390 million. Second highest grossing Hollywood film is Transformers 4 with $320 million. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_films_in_China

Going from planet to planet in Star Wars just feels like changing sets/scenery. You don't really develop an emotional connection with any one place. Pandora was a living, breathing world with every little detail building on the next. It drew you in and made you not want to leave. The astro nut in me particularly appreciates the work Cameron spent making sure all the interactions of the complex planetary system Pandora was in were scientifically accurate. Lucas deserves credit for the vast universe he created, but none of the environments were ever as captivating as Pandora to me.

My post was less about the numbers and more about the second part of his post where he mentioned why the Chinese government would let a Hollywood film dominate. Avatar fans seem to think Cameron has special favors and will be given preferential treatment. e.g. 2 month run, less screen count drops. For what it's worth, I'm not expecting Star Wars to do well at all in China. It's relatively flat without any pre-existing knowledge of the franchise.

Is this any different from the Avatar fans thinking the sequel will do $600-800 million, or that it will be allowed to run for 2 months instead of 1 like the original?

If Avatar 2 brings us to the oceans of Pandora, I wonder what other angle Cameron will utilize for 3 and 4. Can't wait to see what kind of unique and crazy environments and animals he designs this time.