Porthos

NOT A RECORD

The serious answer is several people were perplexed that so few kids were getting this week off for Xmas break (which came from discussing R1's potential box office this week). That then span off into a discussion about sending kids to school early in the mornings. And, well, after that it was standard BOT thread drift. PAGE 301 EVENT STATUS CONFIRMED

Just 17 more posts before this thread officially becomes an event.

I would always get a two week break during the holidays at K-12. Are they just shifting it around for the folks who aren't getting this week off? (Then again, being even older than Tele, we only had those new-fangled one room log cabins for schools, so things might have been a lot different then)

See, this is why you are but the learner. You should have responded with something like this:

R1 looks to be slightly in error. The actuals on its page has the 155.081 number, while this one has 155.091. Adding them up, looks like it's this page which has the data entry wrong. It'll be corrected soon enough I reckon, but I thot I would point it out before people here run with that number.

Whether or not that's true, it takes two to tango. "He started it" (whether he did or not) rarely worked on the school playground, and I've tended to find it doesn't fair much better elsewhere.

(I deleted that post your responding to because the board posted it prematurely) ((Stooopid board) Yes, but notice ALL I said was: I. Was. Wrong. I didn't set out to say others were more wrong than I was. I also added a bit to say why I think I was wrong, but then also added a bit to say I'll never really know. Just admitting that one got it wrong, examining why you might have gotten it wrong, and leaving it at that and not throwing shade at others goes a long way in my book. That's all I was trying to say.

I was bouncing around 180 to 170 all this time. But unlike some (no names here, and I'm definately not point at you Daxtreme ), I'm going to say something easy: I. Was. Wrong. There. That wasn't so difficult, now was it? Looking at everything, I suspect I overestimated how much fanboys and fangirls would rush out to see this OW/Opening Night, but I'll never really know. Still, 'only' being off 15 to 20 million isn't all that bad. Especially if it comes in near my final total of 515.

-premature post- -board messed up quotes-

MM: 1. Predict Rogue One's OW. 127.588m EC: $178m Actuals: $155.08 MM: -27.493 EC: +22.92 Both of you were off by quite a bit. But let's not split hairs, you were more off than he was. By a little more than 4.5 million, in fact.

For the record, I didn't give a recent OW number. I softed a 170 OW but I don't think I ever comitted to it. Mostly because I have little idea what I'm doing when it comes to those sorts of things.

Your Winter Game entry on Thr says otherwise. (I also think EmpireCity lowered his number as well just before release)

Hilarious thing, BTW. When I first saw this gif, I said to myself, "Strange. I don't seem to recall THAT scene from LOST." Kept wracking my brains trying to remember what epsiode it was from. It wasn't until later I found out it was Ryan Reynolds, not Matthew Fox. But it just fits so perfectly into both LOST and Fox's type of scenes he had in it, that I still can't but help think it SHOULD have been from it.

The hero we need, not the one we deserve.

Puerto Rico saves the day once again.

Posted that line 40 pages ago. Didn't take.

Chris Weitz as well (if you can slog through his engagement with trolls). This is one of the more interesting things: (and of course, John Knoll who started it all)

See, I'm conflicted on this. Part of me thinks Disney and Fox want to play nice over Avatar Land. But then part of me thinks that Disney sees the pile of money at the end of the rainbow and then thinks to themselves, "There are only common interests, not friendships in international relations businesses". But then I think that they might worry that YHS will suffer with mindshare if they can't muscle A2 out of the way. But then I think that they will worry about YHS showing up five months after Ep 8 debuts. But then I think that all the Marvel movies can co-exist each year. And then I realize very few of them regularly crack 500... Which gets me back to the beginning of the logic chain. In a way, if R1 did somewhere between 400 and 450, it would lessen the pressure. Disney might look things over and go, "Ok, not mega numbers then. We can put YHS at a different part of the calendar, get our 300+ and call it a day." Which is why I wanted to hear what others had to say. Where on the logic chain I gave above do they think Disney will land. And will the amount of money R1 pulls in affect the decision at all.

So what do we think the chances are that Disney decides to move the upcoming Han Solo film to December of 2018? I know that Fox has tentatively put a marker there for Avatar 2, but who knows if they'll actually make that date. Perhaps a better way of putting it is: What's the number R1 needs to pull to force their hand? Or at least make it a difficult decision? 550? 600? 525? Or do we think that the chips have fallen in such a way that Disney is going to go ahead and release the Han Solo film in May of 2018, come hell or high water.

Depends on the year. 1987? Absolutely. Other years, you might get two or three. Then again, the Great Migration to PG-13 hadn't happened yet, and many of those films if they were released today would be PG-13, which raises the amount of people who can see films. And even then, if you start scanning the amount of money Top Ten films brought in from, oh, 1985 to 1994, it is striking how many were under $100m back then. Even adjusting for inflation the spreads in the Top Ten each year can be striking. Here's 1987 adj: 1 Three Men and a Baby BV $359,069,500 1,813 $22,866,900 1,006 11/25 2 Fatal Attraction Par. $341,651,200 1,401 $16,741,600 758 9/18 3 Beverly Hills Cop II Par. $338,377,500 2,326 $58,020,700 2,326 5/20 4 Good Morning, Vietnam BV $259,650,900 1,598 $427,900 4 12/25 5 Moonstruck MGM $168,998,100 1,178 $281,000 7 12/18 6 The Untouchables Par. $167,951,100 1,501 $22,071,300 1,012 6/5 7 The Secret of My Success Uni. $147,528,000 1,346 $17,102,100 1,336 4/10 8 Stakeout BV $144,615,500 1,364 $11,385,500 951 8/7 9 Lethal Weapon WB $143,589,100 1,420 $15,039,900 1,256 3/6 10 The Witches of Eastwick WB $140,416,800 1,337 $20,818,700 1,103 6/12 That's 140 ADJUSTED for Witches of Eastwick! Or 1989 adj: 1 Batman WB $542,039,300 2,201 $87,812,800 2,194 6/23 2 Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade Par. $425,476,000 2,327 $63,664,200 2,327 5/24 3 Lethal Weapon 2 WB $319,359,400 1,830 $44,218,500 1,803 7/7 4 Look Who's Talking TriS $299,994,300 1,651 $26,258,900 1,208 10/13 5 Honey, I Shrunk the Kids BV $283,510,100 1,498 $30,933,000 1,371 6/23 6 Back to the Future Part II Uni. $252,710,200 2,107 $60,367,900 1,865 11/22 7 Ghostbusters II Col. $243,974,800 2,410 $63,919,800 2,410 6/16 8 Driving Miss Daisy WB $217,093,500 1,668 $159,900 3 12/15 9 Parenthood Uni. $216,358,400 1,399 $22,786,000 1,262 8/2 10 Dead Poets Society BV $207,898,100 1,109 $738,400 8 6/2 Again, look at the spread. Saying that there are 'a lot' of R rated films in the Top Ten might be true (though not for 1989), but the SPREAD is amazing.

More common? Sure. As high of a box office gross? No, I wouldn't say so.