LinksterAC

Wasn't alive for Star Wars 77. Biggest BO smash I've seen in my life was Titanic--until now. And clearly this movie is on that level. Adjusted for inflation SW7 will be on Titanic's level, and will crack the all time Top Ten Adjusted for Inflation.

As someone who really enjoys both movies, I can't understand the Avatar vs. TFA fanboi war. As a well adjusted adult male with a life, I can't understand any fanboi war. TFA is having a phenomenal run, just like Avatar did. I'm here for the history and the analysis of the data, not the weird dick measuring contest. I agree it should be moved elsewhere.

It would be pretty fun if it somehow beats JW's second weekend (and former record) on its third weekend. Edit: it's already fun that such a scenario is even a possibility.

I think some people are holding on to the notion that it will hit a demand wall after the holidays and drop like a rock. But coming off a $100M weekend, with no real competition in sight, I can't see how that happens. I expect the weekend holds to improve a bit to the -30% range until something hits the market that forces it to lose a lot of screens.

I'm with you there. Avatar +32% is probably around 275 right now, and will likely add more this weekend. I just don't see how TFA gives almost $300M back in that comparison. Maybe $200M for a $1.1B domestic haul.

Wow. Did not expect that hold at all. I felt like it was headed for $20M or less. $100M weekend definitely in play. It would be great to see it break the previous second weekend record on its third weekend. This is the box office run I've been waiting for since Titanic.

I actually watched the interview. He definitely did go there, and all I could think was that he just made a colossal PR misstep. Bad comparison to draw, George.

Whoever said "summer opening with holiday legs" nailed it right on the head. Phenomenal run.

I think WW is still in play right now. China is the X-Factor. I think TFA most likely settles around $2.5B, though. There's no doubt in my mind that if exchange rates were more like 2010, Avatar would be toast. And frankly, the domestic total would be significantly better too. 10% of admissions come from Canada, and they've seen their currency devalue 40% compared to the U.S. dollar since 2010. That's roughly a 4% hit on the domestic take, which means TFA would be at about $620M if 2010 exchange rates held.

I agree, the Avatar sequels and Star Wars sequels are the best bet, though I think neither are very likely. Avatar was a fantastic film (I saw it three times in the theaters) but it was a pioneering film for 3D PLF, and drew a lot attention from that novelty. If Cameron can market the sequels as a technical achievement of some sort, he may be able to match the original Avatar's adjusted haul, but where is the fanbase that propels this over $1B? I just don't see it, but I could be very wrong. I think the Star Wars sequels have a better chance, particularly SW9, but TFA is reaching corners of the market that suggest it's not just a film, but a cultural event. Now I could be wrong, and there may just be that many Star Wars fans out there, but I think total ticket sales for the sequels will drop down to Avatar/TDK levels. Even with inflation, that won't be enough to eclipse TFA, which is tracking at about $1.1B from where I sit. Of course, this is all very speculative, and you never know when another Titanic happens.

It's already tracking ahead of DOM WITHOUT China, with better legs. I think your number should be $1B...if not more.

Caught a matinee yesterday with a couple friends. Theater half full with lots of kids. It occurs to me that this movie plays incredibly well to children. Much better than Avatar did. In an empty family market place until the arrival of KFP3, this fact is bound to help the already unprecedented legs this movie is showing.

Sure they are. It will have a 400+ million dollar lead on Avatar by the end of the weekend, and will still be gaining on it. I'm not saying it will for sure happen, but I think $1.1B is exactly where it ends up.

I've been thinking #1B is a done deal for a while. I think $1.1B is about where it ends up.

It isn't perfect, but Avatar is by far the best comparison to TFA's legs. Not even LOTR had the same kind of holds TFA is enjoying. So no, no one's going to stop comparing the two, because it wouldn't make sense to.

I think it will match domestic without China. Maybe eek ahead (it's arleady tracking ahead). $1.1B or $1.2B.

I'm talking gap to Avatar. Edit: I see my mistake now. Yes, it needs 340M more than JW to eclipse $1B. It also happens to be about 340M more than Avatar at this point in its run, which is where my 11PM tired brain got turned around.

340 million and still gaining...by huge chunks. Should be up to about 420 million by the end of the weekend...and still gaining.

The Avatar Lite legs continue. I'm still looking for the cliff this movie is supposed to fall off of. Just insane.

It's all over. It will be lucky to match The Dark Knight.

I vote the rent.

Down in San Diego I woke to temperatures in the high 30s. Warmed up to 55 (shockingly low), but now there's water falling out of the sky and I don't know what to make of it. Surely the world is ending.

Most are perturbed by a less-than-expected Sunday number, I think. I know I'm in a "wait and see" approach pending the weekday holds to determine just how much the weather influenced that "steep" Sunday drop. So yeah, $35M would probably do it. Actually, $35M out of any week day this week would probably do it.

The weather is having some kind of impact, to be sure. Somehow I doubt it's enough to account for a $5M difference. Maybe half that? I don't know. The weekday holds will tell us something. If they're suddenly Avatar level, we'll know something was really up with the weather.

I think this analogy is a bit misguided. TFA has already started hitting the "wall," it's just doing an impressive job scaling it. Indicators of demand burn-off happen right out of the gate. This has been the case for TFA when compared to Avatar. Although Avatar has been the best comparison to TFA so far, it's not a perfect mirror. Point of fact: Avatar's legs are noticeably better, and have been right from the get-go. Really look at the numbers. First Friday to First Saturday favor Avatar (I know, previews, but those too cause demand to burn-off). First Saturday to first Sunday favor Avatar. First Sunday to first Monday are dead Even, but in terms of drops, SW7 is already trailing due to Saturday to Sunday comparison. Ditto first Monday to first Tuesday, first Tuesday to first Wednesday (barely). Something weird happened on Christmas Eve, but the Wednesday to Friday ratio favors Avatar yet again. Not buy a huge margin, but a significant one. The same thing is happening this weekend. The holds and drops favor Avatar. Not massively, but significantly. TFA basically has Avatar-lite legs, but the undeniable truth is that there is already an accelerated burn-off already going on. In other words: there is an aggregate loss of legs going on because TFA is consistently trailing Avatar by a few percentage points in its holds and drops. I think that TFA just has insanely high demand. It's that simple, and it's causing some ridiculous legs, and will continue to do so.