Daxtreme

Guys, do you realize that there is a slight possibility that Force Awakens is both the top grossing movie of 2015 AND 2016? I'll explain. If it beats Jurassic World before the end of the year, it's gonna be the #1 movie of calendar year 2015. Thus, it's gonna be sitting at $653M + Then, let's assume that the movie grosses $1B domestic in total, which means that it's going to gross an additional $350M in 2016. More if it grosses more than $1B, like $1.1B The chances that neither Batman v Superman, Civil War, finding dory, Rogue One, or others gross more than $350M are slim, but... They aren't zero. And get better as TFA increases. If total is $1.1B, then TFA grosses $450M in 2016. Entirely possible that no other movie reaches that. Force Awakens highest grossing movie of 2015 AND 2016 club, who's in? edit: credits to RogerSmith123456 for the idea. Thanks for being crazy pal

Well, if that estimate holds, that's an Avatar hold boys. $1B alive again!

That's... very precise.

Saved in case it gets nominated for Best Picture. It did get featured in some critics top 10 for the year. Its chances aren't 0 (although they're very low, like 5%). If it gets nominated, I'll like your post!

Definitely not conservative as those aren't far from Avatar-like drops (avatar was 15-25% drop week-to-week, mainly)

the high point (29.6) of this range is Avatar drop. Let's see how it goes!

28.5 translates into a 11% drop, basically. Hope it's going for the upper section of that range!

Can I just compare numbers because it's fun? Seriously dude... edit: I never said that Star Wars will hold like Titanic either.

Titanic, the movie best known for its legendary holds and breaking all sorts of records, is irrelevant when talking about another movie breaking all kinds of records and that's also having great holds? Right.

I just wanna point out that Star Wars dropped only 0.4% more than Titanic on pretty much the same Monday (Dec 28 vs Dec 29), so it doesn't mean that it doesn't hold like Avatar that it's a bad hold. Also, 1B club, where? I wanna join that

8.8% drop and under and TFA can make it, so definitely in the realm of possibility.

Pretty sure it's gonna have 2 of the top 3 Tuesdays as well (including #1) edit: Or at least, it has a shot

MONDAY Note: This chart only shows $8 million+ days, regardless of sorting. Rank Title (click to view) Studio Single Day Gross Theaters Average Date / Days in Release Gross to Date* Final Gross* 1 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $40,109,742 4,134 $9,702 12/21/15 4 $288.1 $571.4 2 Star Wars: The Force Awakens BV $31,362,029 4,134 $7,586 12/28/15 11 $571.4 $571.4 3 Spider-Man 2 Sony $27,661,137 4,152 $6,662 7/05/04 6 $180.1 $373.6 4 Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull Par. $26,779,538 4,260 $6,286 5/26/08 5 $152.0 $317.1 5 Jurassic World Uni. $25,344,820 4,274 $5,930 6/15/15 4 $234.2 $652.3 This is the prettiest-looking thing I've seen all day.

TFA now has $157M more than Jurassic World on Day 11. Geez.

But wasn't it like, on its 5th week-end?

Not really. Avatar dropped 6% on Tuesday, not 11%. It also increased 1% on Wednesday, not dropped 5%. And it dropped 20% on Thurs, not 25%. Not that I expect SW to follow Avatar, just saying that you didn't, in fact, follow Avatar's drops.

So, shoot your predictions then? I'm pulling out all those numbers, as are everyone, but you're just sitting there denying everything and claiming everyone is wrong. So, be my guest.

It's shaping up to look like ROTK more and more, which is the whole point of my post...? I'm trying to predict final results here, which is why I based myself on ROTK. I might have went overboard a bit with the "not a single day" part, but apart from 1 or 2 days, it's still overwhelmingly true. The mere fact that a movie with those numbers has legs superior to ROTK is ridiculous, you seem to forget that at every turn though.

Indeed. Taking Return of the King for example, after its New-Year's Week-end (Jan 4), it was sitting at $290M, which is 77% of its total domestic gross. Transposing that to Star Wars, we get ~730/0.77 = ~$950M. It might even be more if Star Wars ends up at 740 or 750 on Jan 3 And honestly, Star Wars hasn't had drops comparable to ROTK in a single day so far, so... $950M is the floor I think. Or at the very least 900 What do you guys think?

That's being insanely conservative, with a $65 M week-end and insane week day drops. I would say Star Wars has virtually no chance of dropping more than 50% next week-end, not with its current word of mouth, so a $75M week-end is the floor I think.

Hard to tell, actuals won't come before Jan 4 I think! Either way, splendid number!

Indeed, the sunday drop on Jan 3 is gonna be vicious Like in 2009 for instance: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2010-01-03&track=avatar.htm -40 to 50% all across the board, except Avatar of course. Anything above 40% for Star Wars would be hugely incredible, if not downright impossible. But that's Sunday though, there's still Friday and Saturday which can surprise!

$40 M OS? It hasn't dropped at all from last monday! DEC 22 : Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya Dec 22 #StarWarsTheForceAwakens zooms to $610.8M global thru MON. Dom: $40.1M/$288.1M cume. Intl: $41.7M/$322.7M

Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens is continuing on its phenomenal trajectory as audiences on Monday just added another estimated $31.5M to bring the sci-fi franchise up to a gross of about $572.6M on its way to $600M in the next 48 hours or so. http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-with-stellar-monday-box-office-1201673778/ -- I say 24h, not 48h!

If this holds, highly likely, because then it will only need 27 on Tuesday, which would be a huge drop and not likely given the drops it had so far.