Right. Week between X-mas and New-Year is generally very good, movies either go up or don't drop a lot.
Return of the King, for example, dropped a mere 15,5% during its second week, and avatar actually went up. Force Awakens isn't Avatar, but it's showing much better holds than Return of the King so far, so I think it's going to do pretty well, actually.
My prediction is 30% drop for the week ($100 M) + 40% week-end drop($90 M)
so, $188 M seems about right. It might drop less than that though. Anything above that is a win, in my opinion.