I don't feel like the country of production is a viable factor nowadays. These days, an animated movie from anywhere in the world can edge it's way in the nomination slot if it's good enough. Just last year, an average-for-the-company Studio Ghibli film, When Marnie Was There, and the Brazilian Boy and the World double-teamed out of nowhere to edge out The Good Dinosaur, an american Pixar film.
Also, I could use the argument that in 2010, when Toy Story 3 and How To Train Your Dragon were already locks, but you had other American hits like Tangled and Despicable Me in contention, the academy went for The Illusionist, a French/British film, instead to fill the 3rd spot in what was a three-movie year. By the Hollywood-Disney logic, Tangled would've won that 3rd nomination in an absolute landslide.
However, I agree that relations with the Hollywood people wouldn't hurt a film's chance.
(Unrelated side note: the guy that made The Illusionist and The Triplets of Belleville has his next movie in 2017. It'll be interesting to see what happens with that one!)