I think it should lean towards cheap Sure AMC used its investor money to install laser projectors and recliners in their theaters but I don't think it's doing it, quite. And the investor money is dried up now.
To be honest I'm more worried about the exhibitors than the makers of the movies. I don't watch most movies but I do appreciate the opportunity to see anything in a cinema. But I don't know if many of the theaters can stay open...
I guess since Luca is finally in theaters I can re-up this rudimentary analysis I did a while back:
tl:Dr I think Soul, Luca, and Turning Red would make $500 WW each based on how they performed in the few markets they could back in the day.
yeah all three of the movies are getting or already have released in many places around the world. I don't think they're doing much business though. I saw Turning Red in Japan barely chart at all.
oh sure sure, yeah those movies would have done a lot better 10 years ago.
Still we have the big budget cartoons which while they might have taken a hit, still can sell tickets.
I was kind of concerned Luca would have done even worse this weekend seeing as Kung Fu Panda 4 was competition but apparently the Soul and TR level of performance is the floor.
That's a fine opinion to have but I think it's a little interesting how the narrative of "screwed over Pixar movies" generally overlooks Onward.
I ultimately think in a non-COVID world Onward, Luca, and Turning Red would be in the $200 m Dom area. Dunno about Soul though. I've heard takes that Soul would have been another Inside Out and I really don't know about that...
Also in real life Luca and TR could have been successes.
Someone in the tracking thread thought it was going to do 3x this just based on a survey of... one theater I think? But this result doesn't surprise me. mainly because we already knew what Soul and TR did.
In fact, $200 million is indeed a consistent figure for Pixar as @AniNate said. Been the approximate budget since 2010's Toy Story 3. Hasn't been exceeded since then, except for possibly Coco? Which has a budget range of $175m-$225m.
I think that downgrading Pixar's animation quality will be pretty disastrous. That's part of the reason why people see them in the first place. And the writing and story, I guess.
Don't know if this is worth anything but I did see a post on this site saying Steve Jobs made a shrewd contract with Disney when Pixar was acquired. Which might forestall outsourcing.
Well the good? news for us is that there are no announced sequels other than Toy Story 5. And they don't seem to be doing mass outsourcing either. So it seems like they're not taking BOT's advice.
Though I do want to ask, what gross "justifies" a $200 million budget? $600 million? $800 million? A billion?
Wait, Luca is supposed to make $450k this Friday?
When Soul made $121,631 on its first Friday and Turning Red made $160,433? Basically almost 3 times as much as those movies? Just find that hard to believe. But we'll find out on Saturday I guess.
EDIT: However, Luca tickets on OW seem to be $5 across the board unlike Soul and Turning Red's OW tickets being full price...