The Artist
The Help
Moneyball
War Horse
Young Adult
The Descendants
Midnight in Paris
Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Very tempted to include Extremely Loud, but since zero people have seen it, I won't do it just yet. War Horse has early buzz that's positive enough, and TGWTDT just looks like an absolutely epic film based on the trailer, plus I'm a Fincher fan so give me a little break there.
I think The Artist is most likely to win it, with The Help, War Horse, Young Adult and TGWTDT (and possibly Extremely Loud) also in contention. MIP, Moneyball, TTSS and The Descendants have practically no chance imo.