Jason

So looking back at this... I mean, I probably would've agreed with that reasoning too, but Zootopia might very well end up being the animation with the highest percentage of its overseas total made in Asia (or East and Southeast Asia at least, which is what most people associate with Asia). Allowing for $4M more from Turkey and other countries, Japan just needs to make $16M more to have Zootopia pass Kung Fu Panda 3 and top that list, despite the lack of any obvious Asian draws (kung fu, pandas, anime, hit pop songs for Frozen and Japan). It's true that Zootopia has a lot of western references, but unlike Inside Out, they aren't key to understanding the themes, or developing a connection with the characters. It's not hard to imagine that if you don't know the significance of leaving behind a sports team etc. you're not going to feel much of a connection with Riley. And I have a suspicion that the message of Inside Out - "we need sadness to elicit help from others" - might be less profound/surprising for Asian audiences.* On the other hand, I can't think of any reason why Asian audiences would have trouble connecting with Judy. Tenacity, determination, and hard work are universally valued (I imagine), as is her stated motivation "to make the world a better place". The overall themes of "anyone can be anything" and "hard work and determination results in success" are also universally appealing, I think. As for references to racism, I think the overall message is "prejudice is bad" and there are really only a few specific references where the species-ism in Zootopia is more easily understood through the lens of racism rather than prejudice in general. (For a much more thorough treatment of Zootopia's appeal in China: LMAbacus 5/14/2016) I don't even think understanding western references is essential for the humor in Zootopia. The sloth scene, for example, might even be funnier in countries where government offices are even more notoriously slow. I watched The Godfather after watching Zootopia (I'm sorry - it was before my time), and not getting the reference didn't stop that scene from being funny. (I also missed the Breaking Bad reference, I had no idea why some people were laughing at that point for what I thought was a very unfunny situation.) Overall, I think most of the humor in Zootopia isn't dependent on western references, although I haven't done a scene-by-scene analysis. I'm actually more interested in explanations for why Zootopia didn't do well in some markets, given how universally appealing I think it is. *

As usual, OS total has been revised upwards: So Zootopia shot past $1B by $0.7M, not just $20k.

I dunno, I'm still going to be tracking Zootopia's progress in Japan. For one thing, it's still going pretty strong and there's some other milestones it can pass (maybe Big Hero 6 in Japan, and 2 or more of the next highest-grossing films worldwide). For another, there's still No Prisoners' contest. (Although I'm probably out of the running for that) On the other hand, we've already stopped flooding this thread with posts about how Zootopia was doing outside of Japan.

WOOT-WOOT!

Good start to the day: [順位] [販売数] [映画作品タイトル名] 　*1　*15995　ズートピア 　*2　*13357　植物図鑑 運命の恋、ひろいま… 　*3　*11660　デッドプール [2016/06/05 11:20 更新]

From Corpse:

Japan grossed $0.6M from Thursday to Friday and looks to be on track for $3.3M this weekend based on Saturday's drop. Unless OS-Japan fails to deliver, $1B is happening this weekend. OS-Japan was ~$1M last week, so I don't think $0.4-$0.5M is too much to ask.

Seems like he didn't get a chance before the weekend started. Anyway, final numbers for Saturday are in: [順位] [販売数] [映画作品タイトル名] 　*1　*84862　植物図鑑 運命の恋、ひろいま… 　*2　*75856　デッドプール 　*3　*61916　ズートピア Down 18.7% from last Saturday. If Sunday is down by a similar amount, then the weekend's total will be about $3.3M. Should be enough for $1B WW.

As of Thursday, May 5: $993.9M. The OS total was last updated on Monday, so we'll assume that Monday's gross from Japan is included in that total. Tuesday to Friday in Japan has been about $1.5M. Domestic weekend will be about $0.5M. A Sat+Sun total of $3M from Japan (25% drop) would then get us to $999M. If OS-Japan coughs up ~$1M that would get us to $1B. But if Japan were to cough up even a bit more ($3.2M, 20% drop), and domestic closer to $0.6M, could need just $0.7M from OS-Japan. If Zootopia drops ~20% or less this weekend I expect it will hit $1B. Still doable with a drop of ~25%, more than that and it would probably fall just short.

I think people are underestimating just how much the US dollar has strengthened over the past few years. Against the trade-weighted basket of currencies, US dollar has strengthened 18% since early 2014 (Frozen) and 15% since June 2010 (TS3). It is roughly on par with the US dollar of June 2003 (Finding Nemo), about 1.7% weaker. Using the trade-weighted basket, Frozen's OS gross would be $741M in 2016 USD, instead of $876M. I also did an individual breakdown for all territories with available data. The total for those territories in 2016 USD was $724M, instead of $843M. This result is roughly the same as using the trade-weighted basket. (This is not a random coincidence: with the major exception of Canada, countries in the basket have roughly comparable ratios of US trade as their proportion of worldwide box office.) My estimate for Finding Dory's OS gross is $800M. This would have been ~$950M in early 2014.

I think it actually will reach $1B by Sunday, although we might have to wait for the actuals to come in on Monday. As of Tuesday, May 3: $993.8M. By Sunday, add in about $0.7M from domestic and $0.5M from OS-Japan, $995M. Requires $5M from Japan to hit $1B. Assume that Monday's gross from Japan is included in the OS total. Tuesday + Wednesday in Japan about $0.9M. Thursday to Sunday then requires $4.1M, seems very doable. Last week Thurs-Sun was $4.7M.

$2,147,483,647 happens to be +111 1111 1111 1111 1111 1111 1111 1111 in binary. (largest integer that can be represented by 32 bits) If anyone was wondering.

Updated totals (domestic is still an estimate): Total Lifetime Grosses Domestic: $336,177,645 33.8% + Foreign: $657,500,000 66.2% = Worldwide: $993,677,645

This is heresy.

I thought it was next Friday?

I don't want to get sucked into this discussion about La vita è bella as I haven't seen it, but: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Schleifstein Apparently, Joseph Schleifstein was kept hidden from 1943-1945 at Buchenwald. Again, I'm not saying anything either way about whether or not the film was a realistic depiction of the Holocaust.

From Corpse: (C)2016 Disney. All Rights Reserved.Weekend Estimates (05/28-29)/2016年05月28日-2016年05月29日01 (01) ¥428,000,000 ($3.9 million), -15%, ¥5,275,000,000 ($49.0 million), Zootopia (Disney) WK602 (---) ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥230,000,000 ($2.1 million), Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) NEW 03 (02) ¥119,000,000 ($1.1 million), -07%, ¥765,000,000 ($7.0 million), If Cats Disappeared from the World (Toho) WK304 (---) ¥115,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥150,000,000 ($1.3 million), The Huntsman: Winter's War (Toho-Towa) NEW 05 (04) ¥93,000,000 ($846,000), -28%, ¥5,875,000,000 ($54.1 million), Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK7 06 (03) ¥91,000,000 ($821,000), -33%, ¥830,000,000 ($7.6 million), The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) WK3 07 (05) ¥85,000,000 ($773,000), -25%, ¥1,200,000,000 ($11.3 million), 64: Part 1 (Toho) WK4 08 (07) ¥66,000,000 ($597,000), -29%, ¥2,525,000,000 ($23.4 million), Captain America: Civil War (Disney) WK5 09 (06) ¥63,000,000 ($572,000), -42%, ¥300,000,000 ($2.8 million), After the Storm (Gaga) WK2 10 (08) ¥47,000,000 ($429,000), -21%, ¥1,925,000,000 ($18.0 million), Crayon Shin-chan: Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) WK7Zootopia retains its hold atop the box office for its fourth-consecutive week, in its sixth weekend of release; exceeding the blockbuster milestone of ¥5 billion. This weekend only marks the second time it's even dropped since opening (its third weekend being the other). It's still on track to likely exceed ¥8 billion ($70 million+), which will give it a multiplier of at least 18! Wolf Girl and Black Prince earns itself a standard opening weekend for the shojo (teen romance) genre, and since legs are typically good for the genre as well, a gross of ¥1.5-2.0 billion ($15-20 million) is likely. The Huntsman: Winter's War disappoints, though not unexpectedly. Its Friday performance and weekend pre-sales were indicators that it was in store for a poor debut this weekend. If the estimate holds, it's down a huge 60% from the original film's opening from four years ago. Also, it's not even going to reach the ¥1 billion ($9/10 million) milestone, likely setting for a gross of maybe ¥600 million ($5.5 million) or so.

Hmm, good catch. Not as sure now that we'll still see a substantial increase in OS gross once weekend actuals come in tomorrow. Maybe $992M worldwide at most.

Based on edroger3's table I think Japan will be at ~$49M. Current estimate of $991.5M suggests that OS-Japan hasn't increased at all so I'm going to bet that we're going to get a revision upwards tomorrow (as we have for at least 5 consecutive weeks, since I started keeping track). Should be looking at around $992.5M. Domestic should bring in another $1M by the end of the week. OS-Japan should bring in another ~$0.5M, although we might not see that until next Monday's update. Still a good chance of reaching $1B by the end of next weekend, without requiring an increase from Japan (just holding flat or dropping only slightly).

Yep, cannastop already hunted down those reviews:

I think May 3 (during Golden Week) was Zootopia's first day being number 1, and that it hasn't dropped below since. But I'm not certain, I've been more interested in the totals than its ranking.

But where do you think the mistake is? In the original OS figure, which they only now discovered to be $19 million too high? Or in the current figure? I don't think it's a typo, because as far as I can see no other updates to the page were made, so it'd be pretty weird for the number to suddenly change by accident.

So, Zootopia has now passed The Lion King for fourth highest-grossing animated film of all time, a little earlier than expected. But not because Zootopia has suddenly jumped past $987M worldwide, but rather because The Lion King just had its OS gross reduced by about $19M on Box Office Mojo, resulting in $968M worldwide. Anyone know what's going on there? Not sure if this is the right place to ask, but not sure where else to post.

Original study is here: http://pages.ucsd.edu/~nchristenfeld/Publications_files/Spoilers.pdf Methodology seems sound, they used a variety of different stories in three different genres. Sample size is large enough, even for the relatively small effect size. Main thing though is that they're asking for a numerical rating of how much they enjoyed the stories. I don't know if that necessarily captures the difference between knowing a spoiler or not though. Panda already summed this up nicely: It's possible I might even enjoy a second viewing a little more, but honestly it's a different experience and I'd prefer to have both. I'd have liked if the study also asked participants other questions aside from enjoyment, such as how much they would want to re-read the story, and how likely they would be to recommend it to someone else. As for Zootopia, I actually did know the main twist. It definitely didn't spoil it for me (I can't recall liking a film as much on the first viewing), but I still would have preferred to have not known, if only so I'd know when I'd have figured it out myself. And I'm glad it's the only thing I knew in advance, so I still got the chance to be surprised by other things.

So far, Corpse has called for another 15% drop, and Olive's prediction of ¥8.6B works out to roughly $80M. Next prediction that's up for the test is Zootopia's performance this weekend. I'm definitely hoping for another bump.