Jason

It has yet to open in Germany, Italy, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Norway, and a number of smaller European countries. It only opened this weekend in the UK, and two weeks ago in Japan. Most recent territory-by-territory projection was by YourMother: I posted this a week ago, it has some earlier projections that were made in this thread: Long story short, Dory should hit at least $950M from the territories that are currently open. (485 dom + 65 Japan + 27 Mexico + 6.5 HK + 55 UK + 300 others) It's possible Dory could fall short in Japan/UK but there's a very good chance that domestic and the remaining territories will make up for any shortfall. The remaining ~$50M might even come from Germany alone, but even with Dory underperforming Germany + Italy + Northern Europe will definitely be more than $50M. I would call that "locked".

Works better in the actual film imo, but here it is:

1. Moana 2. Kubo and the Two Strings 3. Beauty and the Beast 4. Queen of Katwe 5. Hacksaw Ridge 6. Rogue One 7. Sing 8. Fantastic Beasts 9. Suicide Squad 10. Doctor Strange

I doubt the low level of promotion going on right now has anything to do with this possibly being delayed. My guess would be that there's really no need to start marketing Cars 3 this far in advance, the fact that toy cars from Cars are a go-to gift for boys nowadays does enough to keep this franchise in mind.

I think so. Snippets from the UK thread:

Finding Dory opened in the UK to £8.2M ($10.8M).

The trailer for this didn't interest me at all, but the fact that it's premiering at TIFF is tempting me to go see it. I'm not sure whether that necessarily means it will be better than my initial expectations, but the opportunity to see this 3 months before I otherwise could is pretty enticing. $25 is kinda steep for me though, so still thinking about it.

I imagine that Chinese people living in China wouldn't be bothered by this because they have plenty of films that cast Chinese actors as the hero. From what I've read, Asian-Americans are upset because they feel that Hollywood productions cast only white people as the heroes, even in this instance where it would make a lot more sense for the hero to be Chinese. Everyone I'm personally aware of who has complained about this film is not complaining on anyone else's behalf. (I'm not saying there aren't any non-Asians complaining as well, but they're definitely not the majority). Constance Wu is almost certainly of Han Chinese ethnicity, as are my friends and family who are offended by this. Unless you feel that only citizens of the People's Republic of China have a right to feel offended by this, and not people of Chinese heritage who are living elsewhere?

For most years from 2006 until this year, I only saw one movie a year in theatres. That's probably pretty rare around here. Edit: On closer inspection, my longest gap was from December 2010 (The King's Speech) to July 2012 (Brave).

I think the current strength of the USD will make it very difficult for any film to beat Frozen WW in the near future. The USD has strengthened about 20% against the trade-weighted basket of currencies since Frozen's release. Frozen itself would have grossed only about $750M OS based on today's exchange rates, and it's helped a lot by the large portion of its OS gross from Japan, which is the only major currency to similar in strength now against the USD as it was at the time Frozen's run. If I had to name a film that could be a contender, I'd go with Frozen 2. Earliest possible release for Frozen 2 is November 2019, by which time it's possible that the USD will not be quite as strong as it is now. Even then I expect it will depend on Frozen 2 being the phenomenon in Japan that Frozen was.

I just noticed this on Box Office Mojo (was posted 2 weeks ago): Should we presume though that Sony will give it an Oscar-qualifying run in LA sometime before the end of the year?

I don't think Brexit alone is likely to hurt Dory's OS gross by more than about 3%. I did this analysis about a month ago, but currencies (Pound/Euro) haven't continue to fall since then: Also, I'm certain that Dory will hit $1B worldwide, you can quote me if it doesn't. Just posted this in the FD thread, seems unnecessary to retype it:

I don't have a TV, so I actually have no idea how often trailers for films show up as TV spots in general, or if trailers continue to air during the opening weekend. But I was at my parents place this weekend and thought it was a bit funny that the only commercial I saw mentioning Star Trek was for a 50th anniversary coin from the Royal Canadian Mint and not for Star Trek Beyond. And I actually saw it twice!

I'm willing to go on the record saying that Finding Dory will definitely hit $1 billion. You can (and should) throw this back at me if it doesn't. Not going to rehash the analyses that have been done so far (but I've included some of them below). But essentially even the most conservative territory-by-territory estimates reach a total of $1 billion. While it's quite possible for Dory to underperform a conservative estimate in some of its remaining markets, it will also probably outperform conservative estimates in other markets. Overall, it becomes very unlikely for the final total to drop below the total predicted using conservative estimates.

Mojo isn't showing that as having been recently added, but I'm very sure it wasn't there as of June 30 (when you made your post). Movie Insider says the announcement was made on July 3.

From Corpse:

We've passed the UK thread for # of views.

I was so confused, I thought you knew Kubo was male and I was re-watching the trailer and I was like "who is this girl he is talking about?"

I agree with you, except that isn't Kubo the lead? So perhaps "Lead goes on adventure with wacky sidekick" would be more accurate?

It could, but I really doubt it. Back when Zootopia projections were being made there was a pretty much universal trend to underestimate markets where no specific projections were being made. So my estimate for the August/September European markets is probably a lowball. I actually think my estimate of $570M OS is the floor (or nearly so), because even though Japan or the UK might fall a bit short, that will almost certainly be made up by underestimates elsewhere.

Alright, so I've done the graphs and analysis comparing 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW (the "Baumer Metric"). Long story short, for films released in summer it's probably worth examining the entire 2nd week vs OW in addition to just the 2nd weekend vs OW. Taken together, these metrics suggest it's unlikely for Pets to have a multiplier below ~3.1 ($323M), and the most probable multiplier is around 3.3 ($344M). The set of data is from a total of 76 films. Criteria for inclusion are as follows: 1. The film must have had a Friday opening. 2. The film must appear on all three of these lists: OW, 2nd weekends, and 10-day totals. This is in large part for my convenience, but I'm doubtful that a wider set of films would produce a more accurate result for our film of interest (Secret Life of Pets). 3. The film must have completed or nearly completed its box office run. This excludes Finding Dory and Secret Life of Pets. 4. The film must not be Avatar. It's a ridiculous outlier and all by itself causes a significant reduction in the strength of the correlations, which is pretty absurd in a data set of this size. Sorry for the poor quality of the graphs, they look a lot better in Excel. I'm still working on a better way to export them as images, I'll replace them once I've got that figured out. Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the 2nd weekend to the opening weekend: The black points represent the entire data set, with red squares around summer films (N=41, released from May to August inclusive), blue triangles around non-summer films (N=35), and purple circles around films classified as "animated" by Box Office Mojo (N=12). The lines of best fit are similarly colour-coded. The R-squared value for all three sets is statistically significant (P<0.001), and shows that about 80% of the variance in the multiplier can be predicted from the ratio of 2nd weekend to opening weekend. There does appear to be a slightly different relationship for summer films vs. non-summer films. I haven't done a significance test for that yet, it'll take a while. The animated film set isn't large enough to justify a separate mathematical analysis, but by inspection it does appear that animated films mostly follow the trend for other summer/non-summer films. Shrek Forever After and Zootopia deviate the most from the general trend. Here is the graph comparing the multiplier and the ratio of the full 2nd week (Mon-Sun) to the opening weekend: The data points and lines of best fit are coded the same as in the previous graph. Again, the R-squared value for all three sets is statistically significant (P<0.001). However, while the strength of correlation for the summer set is about the same, the strength of the correlation for the winter set is reduced significantly (P<0.05). This makes sense given the relative weakness of weekdays outside of summer, and further justifies treating summer films and non-summer films separately. Even though the strength of the correlation is about the same for summer films using either metric, visual inspection makes it clear that the two metrics are not the same. Using the entire second week, Shrek Forever After no longer obviously deviates from the general trend for summer films, and instead Finding Nemo and Up appear to be outliers. I decided to combine the two metrics for summer films to see if that would increase the strength of the correlation compared to either metric alone. The following graph compares the multiplier to the simple unweighted average of the 2nd weekend/OW and 2nd week/OW ratios: Here the summer films are represented by solid red squares, with purple circles surrounding animated films. Visual inspection makes it appear as though their might be a non-linear relationship, but an exponential fit is not significantly better, nor were any other basic fits. I suspect that the appearance of non-linearity is an artifact being created by a few outliers. The R-squared value of 0.88 for the linear regression of this combined metric is higher than the value for each of the individual metrics, but falls short of being a significant improvement by usual standards of statistical scrutiny (P<0.05). That being said, while the actual P-value of 0.14 falls short of usual standards, a 14% chance of this improved relationship occurring by chance is good enough for me to take it into consideration. Again, the summer animated films generally follow the trend of other summer films, although Finding Nemo and Up deviate quite noticeably. What does this all mean for Secret Life of Pets? Using visual inspection rather than a precise calculation (since I don't know the amount of error in the slopes and intercept calculated by the regression): Based on the first graph - 2nd weekend/OW = 0.485, multiplier of around 3-3.3 ($313M - $344M) Based on the second graph - 2nd week/OW = 0.947, multiplier of around 3.2-3.6 ($333M - $376M) Based on the third graph - Average = 0.716, multiplier of around 3.2-3.4 ($333M - $355M) So as much as I'd rather it didn't, I think Pets has about a 50/50 chance of beating Zootopia. (Nothing against Pets - my avatar should suffice as explanation.) Thanks @Baumer, good insight to take into consideration full second week as well as weekend for summer films.

Definitely. Markets that opened prior to this past weekend should end up grossing around $295M total. Mexico, Hong Kong, and Japan opened over the weekend. Japan is a pretty leggy market, so $75M is in play there. Mexico's opening makes a total of $35M pretty likely, assuming decent legs (which has generally been the case in Latin America). Hong Kong around $8M, I think. UK opens at the end of July. Projection from the UK thread is $75M, taking into account Brexit. A number of European markets open up from late August to late September, including Germany, Austria, Italy, Sweden, Norway, and Finland. I didn't find any specific predictions from their respective threads, but I looked at how IO and Nemo did in those markets and I think it's reasonable to expect $80M or more from those markets combined. Quite possible for a lot more if Dory does well in Germany and Italy. 295+75+35+8+75+80= ~$570M OS total. Domestic total is still on track for at least $480M ~$490M I think. 490+570 = $1,060M That's a pretty nice $60M cushion, and I don't think I've used any overly optimistic estimates. I can't see how Dory could miss $1B.

I've just constructed a table with a total of 79 films* and I'm doing some preliminary analysis right now. Summer vs non-summer doesn't seem to make a significant difference, but I'll show the graphs anyway. I'm a bit hesitant to do an analysis for animated films only, there are only 14 animated films in the set, even including The Jungle Book. In the larger set I'm now using it does appear that using 2nd weekend vs OW gives a stronger correlation than 2nd week (Mon-Sun) vs OW. But I think the difference falls a bit short of being "significant" (P <0.05). It's getting late so I'm going to finish off the graphs and significance-checking tomorrow. Stay tuned if you're interested. *For inclusion in the table, a film needed have an opening day on Friday and appear in all three of these lists: OW, 2nd weekends, 10-day totals. It also needed to not be Avatar, which is a major outlier.

This was interesting. The logic for taking into consideration the entire second week instead of just the weekend seems sound. But when I did a quick scatterplot and linear regression, there is actually a stronger correlation with the second weekend drop (R^2 = 0.22) than with the second week total vs. OW, for which there is essentially no correlation at all (R^2 = 0.006). That being said, the correlation of 0.22 is also quite small and not statistically significant in a sample of this size. I'm trying to think of an easy way to get a bigger data set without having to do all the calculations manually.

This doesn't seem to be a popular opinion around here, but it is how friends/family that I've asked feel about it as well. Purely anecdotal I know, but I suspect they're a better reflection of GA.